The CS20 Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear StatTrak™
Inputs
Classic Crate
2x $0.38
Bock Blocks
5x $0.50
Fusion
2x $0.54
RMX
1x $1.62
↓
Possible Outputs
Electrum
16.0% $16.94
Firebreathing
16.0% $10.78
Amberline
16.0% $6.01
Agent
4.0% $5.44
Galigator
16.0% $5.43
Buddy
4.0% $5.28
Max Win
$16.94 (+122.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$7.87 (+3.6%)
Win %
32.0%
Volatility
+59.4%
Cost
$7.60
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $7.60
Ask Price EV $7.87 (+3.6%)
Bid Price EV $6.72 (-11.6%)
Ask Profit $0.27 (+3.6%)
Bid Profit $-0.88 (-11.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.16 (+15.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.27
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.88
Risk
Win Probability 32.0%
Loss Probability 68.0%
Best Case $16.94 (+122.8%)
Worst Case $3.25 (-57.3%)
Volatility +59.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 52.0%
Avg Win +$6.26
Avg Loss -$2.54
Bottom 5% Outcome $3.50 (-53.9%)
Std Dev $4.51
Avg Norm Float 0.1493
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 155h 4m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Classic Crate
—
Field-Tested
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Classic Crate
—
Minimal Wear
$0.53 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Field-Tested
$0.54 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.63 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Minimal Wear
$0.73 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.74 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.86 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$1.07 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Minimal Wear
$1.62 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 54M 07S //TOTAL COST $7.60 //ASK PRICE EV $7.87 //BID PRICE EV $6.72 //ASK PROFIT $0.27 (+3.6%) //BID PROFIT $-0.88 (-11.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 32.0% //BEST CASE $16.94 //VOLATILITY +59.4% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$16.94
+$9.34
+122.8%
$14.31
+$6.71
+88.3%
$2.63
15.5%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$10.78
+$3.18
+41.8%
$9.15
+$1.55
+20.4%
$1.63
15.1%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$6.01
-$1.59
-21.0%
$4.92
-$2.68
-35.3%
$1.09
18.1%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$5.44
-$2.16
-28.4%
$4.57
-$3.03
-39.9%
$0.87
16.0%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$5.43
-$2.17
-28.5%
$4.94
-$2.66
-35.0%
$0.49
9.1%
—
LOSS
4.0%
$5.28
-$2.32
-30.5%
$4.14
-$3.46
-45.5%
$1.14
21.6%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$4.76
-$2.84
-37.4%
$4.26
-$3.34
-43.9%
$0.50
10.4%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$3.76
-$3.84
-50.5%
$3.65
-$3.95
-52.0%
$0.11
2.9%
—
NUKE THIN BID
4.0%
$3.50
-$4.10
-53.9%
$2.41
-$5.19
-68.3%
$1.09
31.2%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$3.25
-$4.35
-57.3%
$2.85
-$4.75
-62.5%
$0.40
12.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-24|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-24"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.14933,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 10.7765,
"optimistic_value": 10.71,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 9.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:39.430728Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.14933,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 5.433,
"optimistic_value": 5.37,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 4.94,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:01:50.622862Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.14933,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 16.936,
"optimistic_value": 16.88,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 14.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Electrum (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:44.044782Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.14933,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 6.006,
"optimistic_value": 5.95,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 4.92,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:41.261032Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.14933,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 4.755,
"optimistic_value": 4.65,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 4.26,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:04:13.401858Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.0821315,
"output_skin_id": "skin-31de22ad9746",
"realistic_value": 5.2835,
"optimistic_value": 5.21,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Buddy",
"conservative_value": 4.14,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-24",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The CS20 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Buddy (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:19:45.339680Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-31de22ad9746.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.1119975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0ca39d6a9fe2",
"realistic_value": 3.504,
"optimistic_value": 3.49,
"output_full_name": "M249 | Aztec",
"conservative_value": 2.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-24",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The CS20 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Aztec (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:07:25.612607Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ca39d6a9fe2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.14933,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4ef86547d990",
"realistic_value": 5.443,
"optimistic_value": 5.17,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Agent",
"conservative_value": 4.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-24",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The CS20 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Agent (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:15:27.813857Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4ef86547d990.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.1015444,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5bcef416d83b",
"realistic_value": 3.7595,
"optimistic_value": 3.7,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Inferno",
"conservative_value": 3.65,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-24",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The CS20 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Inferno (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:29:23.836740Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5bcef416d83b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.119464,
"output_skin_id": "skin-520d7a1ce647",
"realistic_value": 3.2485,
"optimistic_value": 3.07,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Plastique",
"conservative_value": 2.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-24",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The CS20 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Plastique (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:12:48.623692Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-520d7a1ce647.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_96c3f2069626251425db9e31",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-d136bb4f23cb",
"listing_id": "506234592364798152",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-24",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Classic Crate (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Classic Crate",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d136bb4f23cb.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:23:14.193255Z"
},
{
"price": 0.53,
"skin_id": "skin-d136bb4f23cb",
"listing_id": "494976224708643762",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-24",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Classic Crate (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Classic Crate",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d136bb4f23cb.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:12:38.958318Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "509613036859925607",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:38.533199Z"
},
{
"price": 0.54,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "641342016844184047",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:17:55.920787Z"
},
{
"price": 0.63,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "643593816523454425",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:38.533199Z"
},
{
"price": 0.73,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "503983642533640231",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:04:37.328074Z"
},
{
"price": 0.74,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "493850543433131140",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:23:19.274491Z"
},
{
"price": 0.86,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "508487242223022158",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:23:19.274491Z"
},
{
"price": 1.07,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "503983423969275595",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:23:19.274491Z"
},
{
"price": 1.62,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "515242423034647657",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | RMX (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:37.293577Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-24:2+collection-set-community-37:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The CS20 Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 16.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 16.0% $31.66 Agent 4.0% $29.05 Amberline 16.0% $18.87 Galigator 16.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $13.57 | $51.27 +181.9% | $23.36 +28.4% | 52.0% | +71.3% | $18.19 | — |
The CS20 Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Electrum 16.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 16.0% $6.12 Galigator 16.0% $3.49 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $2.98 Amberline 16.0% $2.84 Agent 4.0% $2.67 | $10.69 +192.2% | $4.56 +24.7% | 32.0% | +75.3% | $3.66 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The CS20 Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 18.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 18.0% $31.66 Agent 2.0% $29.05 Amberline 18.0% $18.87 Galigator 18.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 18.0% $13.57 | $51.27 +165.8% | $24.67 +27.9% | 38.0% | +70.2% | $19.29 | — |
The CS20 Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 14.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 14.0% $31.66 Agent 6.0% $29.05 Amberline 14.0% $18.87 Galigator 14.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $13.57 | $51.27 +194.2% | $22.05 +26.5% | 48.0% | +71.4% | $17.43 | — |
The CS20 Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 12.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 12.0% $31.66 Agent 8.0% $29.05 Amberline 12.0% $18.87 Galigator 12.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $13.85 | $51.27 +202.3% | $20.77 +22.5% | 44.0% | +70.3% | $16.96 | — |
The CS20 Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 10.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 10.0% $31.66 Agent 10.0% $29.05 Amberline 10.0% $18.87 Galigator 10.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $13.57 | $51.27 +206.1% | $19.43 +16.0% | 40.0% | +68.5% | $16.75 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The CS20 Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight  30.0% $290.04 Hydra  3.3% $109.82 Kintsugi  30.0% $60.46 Deathgaze  30.0% $58.67 Nostalgia  3.3% $38.84 Death by Puppy  3.3% $28.84 | $290.04 +192.2% | $128.67 +29.6% | 33.3% | +107.0% | $99.27 | — |
The CS20 Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Classified → Covert Factory New ST | Queen's Gambit  45.0% $843.46 Fully Tuned  45.0% $484.90 Wildfire  5.0% $484.63 Commemoration  5.0% $117.77 | $843.46 +59.2% | $627.88 +18.5% | 45.0% | +39.7% | $529.72 | — |