The Italy Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Boreal Forest
1x $0.18
Gunsmoke
2x $0.29
Gum Wall Camo
1x $0.12
Naval Shred Camo
2x $0.13
Robin's Egg
1x $0.15
Rose Nacre
1x $0.17
↓
Possible Outputs
Candy Apple
10.0% $3.63
Mint Fan
14.0% $3.33
Royal Baroque
14.0% $2.64
Anodized Navy
10.0% $2.48
Reef Grief
14.0% $2.21
Yeti Camo
14.0% $1.77
Max Win
$3.63 (+83.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.32 (+17.0%)
Win %
62.0%
Volatility
+40.2%
Cost
$1.98
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.98
Ask Price EV $2.32 (+17.0%)
Bid Price EV $2.24 (+13.0%)
Ask Profit $0.34 (+17.0%)
Bid Profit $0.26 (+13.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.08 (+4.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.34
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.26
Risk
Win Probability 62.0%
Loss Probability 38.0%
Best Case $3.63 (+83.5%)
Worst Case $1.14 (-42.4%)
Volatility +40.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 14.0%
Avg Win +$0.85
Avg Loss -$0.51
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.14 (-42.4%)
Std Dev $0.80
Avg Norm Float 0.1161
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 147h 51m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A1-S | Boreal Forest
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Gunsmoke
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Gunsmoke
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Robin's Egg
—
Minimal Wear
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 20M 49S //TOTAL COST $1.98 //ASK PRICE EV $2.32 //BID PRICE EV $2.24 //ASK PROFIT $0.34 (+17.0%) //BID PROFIT $0.26 (+13.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 62.0% //BEST CASE $3.63 //VOLATILITY +40.2% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
10.0%
$3.63
+$1.65
+83.5%
$3.60
+$1.62
+81.8%
$0.03
0.9%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$3.33
+$1.35
+68.2%
$3.30
+$1.32
+66.7%
$0.03
0.9%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$2.64
+$0.66
+33.5%
$2.62
+$0.64
+32.3%
$0.02
0.9%
—
WIN
10.0%
$2.48
+$0.50
+25.1%
$2.47
+$0.49
+24.7%
$0.01
0.3%
—
SMALL WIN EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$2.21
+$0.23
+11.5%
$1.99
+$0.01
+0.5%
$0.22
9.8%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$1.77
-$0.21
-10.8%
$1.62
-$0.36
-18.2%
$0.15
8.2%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$1.53
-$0.45
-22.7%
$1.51
-$0.47
-23.7%
$0.02
1.3%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$1.14
-$0.84
-42.4%
$1.04
-$0.94
-47.5%
$0.10
8.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-italy|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06963599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 3.331,
"optimistic_value": 3.31,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 3.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:12:12.547167Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.081242,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 1.7655,
"optimistic_value": 1.72,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 1.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:14:03.670752Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.075439,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 1.141,
"optimistic_value": 1.12,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 1.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:53.037696Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06963599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 2.6435,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:37.073219Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06963599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 2.2070000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.2,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 1.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:25.826437Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.034817999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4e5b581684d4",
"realistic_value": 3.6335,
"optimistic_value": 3.63,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Candy Apple",
"conservative_value": 3.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Italy Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:41:52.882116Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4e5b581684d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0092848,
"output_skin_id": "skin-16044409b9f9",
"realistic_value": 2.4770000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.47,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Anodized Navy",
"conservative_value": 2.47,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Italy Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:50:04.764312Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-16044409b9f9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06963599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5399c334e3b4",
"realistic_value": 1.53,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Full Stop",
"conservative_value": 1.51,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Italy Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:25:03.115939Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5399c334e3b4.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_92a19e1f4dd0d35b471476aa",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-7c750505c0aa",
"listing_id": "518620288314587116",
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Boreal Forest",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7c750505c0aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:30:09.362143Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-4876ba10c2c4",
"listing_id": "526501587738453569",
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Gunsmoke",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4876ba10c2c4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:25:36.654784Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-4876ba10c2c4",
"listing_id": "503983589620299619",
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Gunsmoke",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4876ba10c2c4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:25:36.654784Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "502857689863279456",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:15:03.887308Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-c096d50b4039",
"listing_id": "516368488726734782",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c096d50b4039.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:18:50.807315Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-69fcaf121180",
"listing_id": "507361237008872437",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69fcaf121180.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:18:35.215247Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-c096d50b4039",
"listing_id": "491597893797568694",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c096d50b4039.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:18:50.807315Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "516368488724892626",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:18:53.001289Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "490472790737224023",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:21:05.807912Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "510738989041206934",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:21:05.807912Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-italy:3+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Italy Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Candy Apple 10.0% $3.63 Anodized Navy 10.0% $2.48 Yeti Camo 14.0% $1.77 Cobalt Paisley 14.0% $1.14 Royal Baroque 14.0% $1.14 Reef Grief 14.0% $1.03 | $3.63 +205.3% | $1.49 +25.1% | 34.0% | +66.8% | $1.19 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Italy Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Candy Apple 6.7% $3.63 Anodized Navy 6.7% $2.48 Yeti Camo 16.0% $1.87 Royal Baroque 16.0% $1.14 Cobalt Paisley 16.0% $1.14 Mint Fan 16.0% $1.02 | $3.63 +233.3% | $1.42 +29.9% | 61.3% | +63.9% | $1.09 | — |
The Italy Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Candy Apple 13.3% $3.63 Anodized Navy 13.3% $2.48 Yeti Camo 12.0% $1.77 Cobalt Paisley 12.0% $1.14 Royal Baroque 12.0% $1.14 Reef Grief 12.0% $1.02 | $3.63 +171.2% | $1.58 +18.0% | 38.7% | +64.9% | $1.34 | — |
The Italy Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Candy Apple 16.7% $3.63 Anodized Navy 16.7% $2.48 Yeti Camo 10.0% $1.78 Cobalt Paisley 10.0% $1.14 Mint Fan 10.0% $1.06 Royal Baroque 10.0% $1.05 | $3.63 +140.6% | $1.67 +10.9% | 43.3% | +61.2% | $1.51 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Italy Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate  45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard  45.0% $13.66 Pit Viper  10.0% $2.58 | $38.92 +90.3% | $23.92 +17.0% | 45.0% | +68.1% | $20.45 | — |