The Italy Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
CaliCamo
1x $0.15
Boreal Forest
2x $0.18
Naval Shred Camo
3x $0.06
Gum Wall Camo
1x $0.08
Turquoise Pour
1x $0.08
Sour Grapes
1x $0.09
↓
Possible Outputs
Candy Apple
10.0% $3.63
Anodized Navy
10.0% $2.48
Yeti Camo
14.0% $1.79
Cobalt Paisley
14.0% $1.14
Mint Fan
14.0% $1.05
Royal Baroque
14.0% $1.04
Max Win
$3.63 (+202.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$1.48 (+23.5%)
Win %
34.0%
Volatility
+75.4%
Cost
$1.20
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.20
Ask Price EV $1.48 (+23.5%)
Bid Price EV $1.42 (+18.0%)
Ask Profit $0.28 (+23.5%)
Bid Profit $0.22 (+18.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.07 (+5.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.28
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.22
Risk
Win Probability 34.0%
Loss Probability 66.0%
Best Case $3.63 (+202.8%)
Worst Case $0.30 (-75.0%)
Volatility +75.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 10.0%
Avg Win +$1.33
Avg Loss -$0.26
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.30 (-75.0%)
Std Dev $0.91
Avg Norm Float 0.2127
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 148h 55m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
XM1014 | CaliCamo
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Boreal Forest
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Boreal Forest
—
Field-Tested
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo
—
Field-Tested
$0.06 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Sour Grapes
—
Field-Tested
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 20M 00S //TOTAL COST $1.20 //ASK PRICE EV $1.48 //BID PRICE EV $1.42 //ASK PROFIT $0.28 (+23.5%) //BID PROFIT $0.22 (+18.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 34.0% //BEST CASE $3.63 //VOLATILITY +75.4% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
10.0%
$3.63
+$2.43
+202.8%
$3.60
+$2.40
+200.0%
$0.03
0.9%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$2.48
+$1.28
+106.4%
$2.47
+$1.27
+105.8%
$0.01
0.3%
—
WIN
14.0%
$1.79
+$0.59
+49.1%
$1.62
+$0.42
+35.0%
$0.17
9.4%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$1.14
-$0.06
-4.9%
$1.04
-$0.16
-13.3%
$0.10
8.9%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$1.05
-$0.15
-12.8%
$0.93
-$0.27
-22.5%
$0.12
11.2%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$1.04
-$0.16
-13.0%
$1.01
-$0.19
-15.8%
$0.03
3.2%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$0.98
-$0.22
-18.0%
$0.97
-$0.23
-19.2%
$0.01
1.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.30
-$0.90
-75.0%
$0.29
-$0.91
-75.8%
$0.01
3.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-italy|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.12761399999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 1.047,
"optimistic_value": 1.04,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 0.93,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:26:22.424629Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.148883,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 1.789,
"optimistic_value": 1.74,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 1.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:00:14.550967Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.1382485,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 1.141,
"optimistic_value": 1.12,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 1.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:53.037696Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.12761399999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 1.0435,
"optimistic_value": 1.04,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:26:10.757859Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.12761399999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 0.9834999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.98,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 0.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:23:48.137802Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06380699999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4e5b581684d4",
"realistic_value": 3.6335,
"optimistic_value": 3.63,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Candy Apple",
"conservative_value": 3.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Italy Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:41:52.882116Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4e5b581684d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0170152,
"output_skin_id": "skin-16044409b9f9",
"realistic_value": 2.4770000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.47,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Anodized Navy",
"conservative_value": 2.47,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Italy Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:50:04.764312Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-16044409b9f9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.12761399999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5399c334e3b4",
"realistic_value": 0.3,
"optimistic_value": 0.3,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Full Stop",
"conservative_value": 0.29,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Italy Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:20:52.217787Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5399c334e3b4.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_92a19e1f4dd0d35b471476aa",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-f186f29dda0c",
"listing_id": "516368488726175018",
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | CaliCamo (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | CaliCamo",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f186f29dda0c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:29:15.990312Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-7c750505c0aa",
"listing_id": "518620288314587116",
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Boreal Forest",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7c750505c0aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:18:17.149354Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-7c750505c0aa",
"listing_id": "514115891842458342",
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Boreal Forest",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7c750505c0aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:18:17.149354Z"
},
{
"price": 0.06,
"skin_id": "skin-c096d50b4039",
"listing_id": "527627540537463584",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c096d50b4039.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:32:13.475032Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-c096d50b4039",
"listing_id": "508487136896176706",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c096d50b4039.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:32:13.475032Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "512989991916998255",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:30:21.231736Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "519746188259096108",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:32:03.755006Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-2891a487ea6c",
"listing_id": "506235389470223292",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Negev | Sour Grapes",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2891a487ea6c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:26:55.770451Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "507361342333802869",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:30:06.298113Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-c096d50b4039",
"listing_id": "497228243054721557",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c096d50b4039.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:29:53.703142Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-italy:3+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Italy Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Candy Apple 10.0% $3.63 Mint Fan 14.0% $3.33 Royal Baroque 14.0% $2.64 Anodized Navy 10.0% $2.48 Reef Grief 14.0% $2.10 Yeti Camo 14.0% $1.79 | $3.63 +82.6% | $2.30 +15.8% | 62.0% | +31.2% | $1.99 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Italy Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Candy Apple 6.7% $3.63 Anodized Navy 6.7% $2.48 Yeti Camo 16.0% $1.78 Cobalt Paisley 16.0% $1.14 Mint Fan 16.0% $1.05 Royal Baroque 16.0% $1.04 | $3.63 +233.3% | $1.39 +27.5% | 45.3% | +64.0% | $1.09 | — |
The Italy Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Candy Apple 13.3% $3.63 Anodized Navy 13.3% $2.48 Yeti Camo 12.0% $1.78 Cobalt Paisley 12.0% $1.14 Mint Fan 12.0% $1.05 Royal Baroque 12.0% $1.04 | $3.63 +165.2% | $1.58 +15.0% | 38.7% | +64.0% | $1.37 | — |
The Italy Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Candy Apple 16.7% $3.63 Mint Fan 10.0% $3.33 Royal Baroque 10.0% $2.64 Anodized Navy 16.7% $2.48 Reef Grief 10.0% $2.10 Yeti Camo 10.0% $1.79 | $3.63 +69.0% | $2.37 +10.4% | 53.3% | +29.7% | $2.15 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Italy Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate  45.0% $18.08 Royal Guard  45.0% $5.44 Pit Viper  10.0% $1.40 | $18.08 +107.3% | $10.72 +22.9% | 45.0% | +77.4% | $8.72 | — |