The Italy Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Gunsmoke
1x $0.34
Boreal Forest
1x $0.49
CaliCamo
1x $0.69
Electric Blue
1x $0.25
Sour Grapes
1x $0.32
Gum Wall Camo
2x $0.36
↓
Possible Outputs
Yeti Camo
14.0% $4.46
Candy Apple
10.0% $3.63
Mint Fan
14.0% $3.33
Cobalt Paisley
14.0% $2.65
Royal Baroque
14.0% $2.64
Anodized Navy
10.0% $2.48
Max Win
$4.46 (-24.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.89 (-50.8%)
Win %
0.0%
Volatility
+14.6%
Cost
$5.87
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.87
Ask Price EV $2.89 (-50.8%)
Bid Price EV $2.85 (-51.4%)
Ask Profit $-2.98 (-50.8%)
Bid Profit $-3.02 (-51.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.04 (+0.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.98
Bid Slippage Buffer -$3.02
Risk
Win Probability 0.00%
Loss Probability 100.0%
Best Case $4.46 (-24.0%)
Worst Case $1.53 (-73.9%)
Volatility +14.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 86.0%
Avg Win —
Avg Loss -$2.98
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.53 (-73.9%)
Std Dev $0.86
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 25m
Oldest Output Price 148h 55m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Gunsmoke
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Boreal Forest
—
Minimal Wear
$0.49 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | CaliCamo
—
Factory New
$0.69 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Sour Grapes
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Factory New
$0.49 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Factory New
$0.76 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$1.80 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 19M 28S //TOTAL COST $5.87 //ASK PRICE EV $2.89 //BID PRICE EV $2.85 //ASK PROFIT $-2.98 (-50.8%) //BID PROFIT $-3.02 (-51.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 0.0% //BEST CASE $4.46 //VOLATILITY +14.6% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
LOSS
14.0%
$4.46
-$1.41
-24.0%
$4.43
-$1.44
-24.5%
$0.03
0.7%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$3.63
-$2.24
-38.1%
$3.60
-$2.27
-38.7%
$0.03
0.9%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$3.33
-$2.54
-43.3%
$3.30
-$2.57
-43.8%
$0.03
0.9%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$2.65
-$3.22
-54.9%
$2.62
-$3.25
-55.4%
$0.03
1.1%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$2.64
-$3.23
-55.0%
$2.62
-$3.25
-55.4%
$0.02
0.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.48
-$3.39
-57.8%
$2.47
-$3.40
-57.9%
$0.01
0.3%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$2.10
-$3.77
-64.3%
$1.99
-$3.88
-66.1%
$0.11
5.1%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.53
-$4.34
-73.9%
$1.51
-$4.36
-74.3%
$0.02
1.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-italy|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.041867999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 3.331,
"optimistic_value": 3.31,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 3.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:23:50.421341Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.048845999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 4.460500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 4.45,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 4.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:09.131172Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.045357,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 2.65,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:23:06.896125Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.041867999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 2.6435,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:23:16.632396Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.041867999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 2.096,
"optimistic_value": 2.04,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 1.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:23:05.326116Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.020933999999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4e5b581684d4",
"realistic_value": 3.6335,
"optimistic_value": 3.63,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Candy Apple",
"conservative_value": 3.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Italy Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:41:52.882116Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4e5b581684d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0055823999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-16044409b9f9",
"realistic_value": 2.4770000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.47,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Anodized Navy",
"conservative_value": 2.47,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Italy Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:50:04.764312Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-16044409b9f9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.041867999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5399c334e3b4",
"realistic_value": 1.53,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Full Stop",
"conservative_value": 1.51,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Italy Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:11:17.426780Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5399c334e3b4.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_92a19e1f4dd0d35b471476aa",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-4876ba10c2c4",
"listing_id": "503983589620299619",
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Gunsmoke (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Gunsmoke",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4876ba10c2c4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:11:38.926568Z"
},
{
"price": 0.49,
"skin_id": "skin-7c750505c0aa",
"listing_id": "496102290329985035",
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Boreal Forest",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7c750505c0aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:20:17.974529Z"
},
{
"price": 0.69,
"skin_id": "skin-f186f29dda0c",
"listing_id": "657104615563769652",
"collection_id": "collection-set-italy",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | CaliCamo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | CaliCamo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f186f29dda0c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:14:55.422299Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "794463791558467223",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:32:26.133327Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-2891a487ea6c",
"listing_id": "524249787961282407",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Sour Grapes",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2891a487ea6c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:31:36.026710Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "501731842661051393",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:23:49.686892Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "506235389470432668",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:23:49.686892Z"
},
{
"price": 0.49,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "525375635594607271",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:23:12.726962Z"
},
{
"price": 0.76,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "518620288314800704",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:23:12.726962Z"
},
{
"price": 1.8,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "491598524989808054",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:23:48.302049Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-italy:3+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Italy Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Candy Apple 10.0% $3.63 Anodized Navy 10.0% $2.48 Yeti Camo 14.0% $1.79 Cobalt Paisley 14.0% $1.14 Mint Fan 14.0% $1.05 Royal Baroque 14.0% $1.04 | $3.63 +202.8% | $1.48 +23.5% | 34.0% | +66.9% | $1.20 | — |
The Italy Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Candy Apple 10.0% $3.63 Mint Fan 14.0% $3.33 Royal Baroque 14.0% $2.64 Anodized Navy 10.0% $2.48 Reef Grief 14.0% $2.10 Yeti Camo 14.0% $1.79 | $3.63 +82.6% | $2.30 +15.8% | 62.0% | +31.2% | $1.99 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Italy Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Candy Apple 6.7% $3.63 Anodized Navy 6.7% $2.48 Yeti Camo 16.0% $1.78 Cobalt Paisley 16.0% $1.14 Mint Fan 16.0% $1.05 Royal Baroque 16.0% $1.04 | $3.63 +233.3% | $1.39 +27.5% | 45.3% | +64.0% | $1.09 | — |
The Italy Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Candy Apple 13.3% $3.63 Anodized Navy 13.3% $2.48 Yeti Camo 12.0% $1.78 Cobalt Paisley 12.0% $1.14 Mint Fan 12.0% $1.05 Royal Baroque 12.0% $1.04 | $3.63 +165.2% | $1.58 +15.0% | 38.7% | +64.0% | $1.37 | — |
The Italy Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Candy Apple 16.7% $3.63 Mint Fan 10.0% $3.33 Royal Baroque 10.0% $2.64 Anodized Navy 16.7% $2.48 Reef Grief 10.0% $2.10 Yeti Camo 10.0% $1.79 | $3.63 +69.0% | $2.37 +10.4% | 53.3% | +29.7% | $2.15 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Italy Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate  45.0% $18.08 Royal Guard  45.0% $5.44 Pit Viper  10.0% $1.40 | $18.08 +107.3% | $10.72 +22.9% | 45.0% | +77.4% | $8.72 | — |