The Recoil Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7
Restricted → Classified MW ST 10 items
Contract
Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear StatTrak™
Inputs
Vent Rush
1x $1.84
Dragon Tech
1x $2.01
Crazy 8
1x $2.57
Amberline
4x $2.91
Urban Sovereign
3x $3.64
↓
Possible Outputs
Crane Flight
23.3% $126.41
Ice Coaled
10.0% $28.04
Kintsugi
23.3% $23.08
Deathgaze
23.3% $21.69
Kiss♥Love
10.0% $13.55
Visions
10.0% $10.49
Max Win
$126.41 (+220.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$45.15 (+14.6%)
Win %
23.3%
Volatility
+114.4%
Cost
$39.40
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $39.40
Ask Price EV $45.15 (+14.6%)
Bid Price EV $40.33 (+2.4%)
Ask Profit $5.75 (+14.6%)
Bid Profit $0.93 (+2.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $4.82 (+12.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$5.75
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.93
Risk
Win Probability 23.3%
Loss Probability 76.7%
Best Case $126.41 (+220.8%)
Worst Case $10.49 (-73.4%)
Volatility +114.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 76.7%
Avg Win +$87.01
Avg Loss -$18.98
Bottom 5% Outcome $10.49 (-73.4%)
Std Dev $45.08
Avg Norm Float 0.1490
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 17m
Oldest Output Price 146h 10m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P90 | Vent Rush
—
Minimal Wear
$1.84 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Dragon Tech
—
Minimal Wear
$2.01 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Crazy 8
—
Minimal Wear
$2.57 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Field-Tested
$2.91 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Field-Tested
$3.52 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Field-Tested
$3.64 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$4.72 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$5.38 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Minimal Wear
$6.40 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Minimal Wear
$6.41 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 59M 36S //TOTAL COST $39.40 //ASK PRICE EV $45.15 //BID PRICE EV $40.33 //ASK PROFIT $5.75 (+14.6%) //BID PROFIT $0.93 (+2.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 23.3% //BEST CASE $126.41 //VOLATILITY +114.4% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
23.3%
$126.41
+$87.01
+220.8%
$112.39
+$72.99
+185.3%
$14.02
11.1%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$28.04
-$11.36
-28.8%
$26.70
-$12.70
-32.2%
$1.34
4.8%
—
NUKE
23.3%
$23.08
-$16.32
-41.4%
$20.66
-$18.74
-47.6%
$2.42
10.5%
—
NUKE
23.3%
$21.69
-$17.71
-44.9%
$19.38
-$20.02
-50.8%
$2.31
10.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$13.55
-$25.85
-65.6%
$11.46
-$27.94
-70.9%
$2.09
15.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$10.49
-$28.91
-73.4%
$9.44
-$29.96
-76.0%
$1.05
10.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-31|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.14899,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
"realistic_value": 126.41149999999999,
"optimistic_value": 124,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
"conservative_value": 112.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:44.452841Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.14899,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
"realistic_value": 23.082,
"optimistic_value": 22.9,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
"conservative_value": 20.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:44:52.783024Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.14899,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
"realistic_value": 21.6945,
"optimistic_value": 21.11,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
"conservative_value": 19.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:44:57.136134Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.11472230000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f10cd3871578",
"realistic_value": 28.0425,
"optimistic_value": 27.43,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Ice Coaled",
"conservative_value": 26.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:51:02.963268Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f10cd3871578.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.104293,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f1071439b89",
"realistic_value": 10.488,
"optimistic_value": 10.04,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Visions",
"conservative_value": 9.44,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Visions (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:37:19.774799Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f1071439b89.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.14899,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f81f65a9d91",
"realistic_value": 13.5465,
"optimistic_value": 13.41,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love",
"conservative_value": 11.46,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:59:55.017664Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f81f65a9d91.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_8de58fb3b4d28879a219b424",
"input_rarity": "Restricted",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.84,
"skin_id": "skin-e2b145a9faa7",
"listing_id": "507361289452955317",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Vent Rush (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Vent Rush",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e2b145a9faa7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:52:47.767574Z"
},
{
"price": 2.01,
"skin_id": "skin-9acc418fe0ad",
"listing_id": "527627435180342312",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9acc418fe0ad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:44:59.533342Z"
},
{
"price": 2.57,
"skin_id": "skin-ab0f49fac59d",
"listing_id": "509612292235347627",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Crazy 8",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ab0f49fac59d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:47:26.439321Z"
},
{
"price": 2.91,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "501731789730739121",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:45:05.598022Z"
},
{
"price": 3.52,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "497228024527485521",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:45:05.598022Z"
},
{
"price": 3.64,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "498354037510570279",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:44:51.873215Z"
},
{
"price": 4.72,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "501731789730735413",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:44:56.729750Z"
},
{
"price": 5.38,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "500605837398261191",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:44:56.729750Z"
},
{
"price": 6.4,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "519746188259003948",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:50:13.519522Z"
},
{
"price": 6.41,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "528753387757823085",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:50:13.519522Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Classified",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-31:3+collection-set-community-37:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 23.3% $290.04 Kintsugi 23.3% $64.80 Deathgaze 23.3% $61.47 Ice Coaled 10.0% $58.75 Kiss♥Love 10.0% $58.41 Visions 10.0% $20.65 | $290.04 +241.1% | $110.92 +30.4% | 23.3% | +117.1% | $85.04 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 23.3% $63.86 Ice Coaled 10.0% $16.45 Kintsugi 23.3% $12.65 Deathgaze 23.3% $11.72 Visions 10.0% $6.87 Kiss♥Love 10.0% $6.25 | $63.86 +217.7% | $23.54 +17.1% | 23.3% | +111.5% | $20.10 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 30.0% $290.04 Kintsugi 30.0% $64.80 Deathgaze 30.0% $61.47 Ice Coaled 3.3% $58.75 Kiss♥Love 3.3% $58.41 Visions 3.3% $20.65 | $290.04 +201.5% | $129.49 +34.6% | 30.0% | +109.6% | $96.20 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 26.7% $290.04 Kintsugi 26.7% $64.80 Ice Coaled 6.7% $58.75 Deathgaze 26.7% $58.69 Kiss♥Love 6.7% $58.41 Visions 6.7% $20.65 | $290.04 +219.9% | $119.46 +31.8% | 26.7% | +114.0% | $90.67 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 20.0% $290.04 Kintsugi 20.0% $64.80 Ice Coaled 13.3% $58.75 Deathgaze 20.0% $58.69 Kiss♥Love 13.3% $58.41 Visions 13.3% $20.65 | $290.04 +263.2% | $101.08 +26.6% | 20.0% | +119.5% | $79.86 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 16.7% $290.04 Kintsugi 16.7% $64.80 Ice Coaled 16.7% $58.75 Deathgaze 16.7% $58.69 Kiss♥Love 16.7% $58.41 Visions 16.7% $20.65 | $290.04 +290.2% | $91.89 +23.6% | 16.7% | +120.8% | $74.33 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 13.3% $63.86 Ice Coaled 20.0% $16.45 Kintsugi 13.3% $12.65 Deathgaze 13.3% $11.72 Visions 20.0% $6.87 Kiss♥Love 20.0% $6.25 | $63.86 +335.6% | $17.68 +20.6% | 33.3% | +126.2% | $14.66 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 10.0% $63.86 Ice Coaled 23.3% $16.45 Kintsugi 10.0% $12.65 Deathgaze 10.0% $11.72 Visions 23.3% $6.87 Kiss♥Love 23.3% $6.43 | $63.86 +386.4% | $15.77 +20.1% | 33.3% | +125.8% | $13.13 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×8+The Dead Hand Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 6.7% $63.86 Ice Coaled 26.7% $16.45 Kintsugi 6.7% $12.65 Deathgaze 6.7% $11.72 Visions 26.7% $6.87 Kiss♥Love 26.7% $6.43 | $63.86 +440.3% | $13.82 +16.9% | 40.0% | +118.6% | $11.82 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×9+The Dead Hand Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 3.3% $63.86 Ice Coaled 30.0% $16.45 Kintsugi 3.3% $12.65 Deathgaze 3.3% $11.72 Visions 30.0% $6.87 Kiss♥Love 30.0% $6.43 | $63.86 +487.5% | $11.87 +9.2% | 40.0% | +97.7% | $10.87 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum  16.0% $51.27 Firebreathing  16.0% $31.66 Amberline 16.0% $18.87 Galigator  16.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $13.92 Crazy 8 4.0% $9.52 | $51.27 +197.1% | $22.08 +27.9% | 48.0% | +77.5% | $17.26 | — |