The Recoil Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7
Restricted → Classified FN ST 10 items
Contract
Restricted → Classified Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Flora Carnivora
2x $3.27
Vent Rush
1x $11.66
Urban Sovereign
6x $4.75
Galigator
1x $9.00
↓
Possible Outputs
Crane Flight
23.3% $290.04
Kintsugi
23.3% $65.51
Deathgaze
23.3% $61.47
Ice Coaled
10.0% $58.75
Kiss♥Love
10.0% $58.41
Visions
10.0% $20.65
Max Win
$290.04 (+247.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$111.08 (+33.1%)
Win %
23.3%
Volatility
+119.2%
Cost
$83.45
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $83.45
Ask Price EV $111.08 (+33.1%)
Bid Price EV $89.80 (+7.6%)
Ask Profit $27.63 (+33.1%)
Bid Profit $6.35 (+7.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $21.28 (+25.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$27.63
Bid Slippage Buffer +$6.35
Risk
Win Probability 23.3%
Loss Probability 76.7%
Best Case $290.04 (+247.6%)
Worst Case $20.65 (-75.3%)
Volatility +119.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 53.3%
Avg Win +$206.59
Avg Loss -$26.83
Bottom 5% Outcome $20.65 (-75.3%)
Std Dev $99.51
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 145h 17m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora
—
Minimal Wear
$3.27 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora
—
Minimal Wear
$3.45 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Vent Rush
—
Factory New
$11.66 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$4.75 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$5.40 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$5.90 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$7.53 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Galigator
—
Minimal Wear
$9.00 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$15.50 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$16.99 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 58M 39S //TOTAL COST $83.45 //ASK PRICE EV $111.08 //BID PRICE EV $89.80 //ASK PROFIT $27.63 (+33.1%) //BID PROFIT $6.35 (+7.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 23.3% //BEST CASE $290.04 //VOLATILITY +119.2% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
23.3%
$290.04
+$206.59
+247.6%
$229.11
+$145.66
+174.5%
$60.93
21.0%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
23.3%
$65.51
-$17.94
-21.5%
$55.11
-$28.34
-34.0%
$10.40
15.9%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
23.3%
$61.47
-$21.98
-26.3%
$55.38
-$28.07
-33.6%
$6.09
9.9%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$58.75
-$24.70
-29.6%
$50.38
-$33.07
-39.6%
$8.37
14.2%
—
LOSS THIN BID EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$58.41
-$25.04
-30.0%
$35.32
-$48.13
-57.7%
$23.09
39.5%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$20.65
-$62.80
-75.3%
$19.93
-$63.52
-76.1%
$0.72
3.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-31|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.06995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
"realistic_value": 290.0445,
"optimistic_value": 279.45,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
"conservative_value": 229.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:40.031809Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.06995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
"realistic_value": 65.5065,
"optimistic_value": 64.74,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
"conservative_value": 55.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:25.824993Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.06995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
"realistic_value": 61.465999999999994,
"optimistic_value": 59.66,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
"conservative_value": 55.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:36:18.187367Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0538615,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f10cd3871578",
"realistic_value": 58.751000000000005,
"optimistic_value": 58.24,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Ice Coaled",
"conservative_value": 50.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:43:50.491623Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f10cd3871578.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.048964999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f1071439b89",
"realistic_value": 20.648500000000002,
"optimistic_value": 19.98,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Visions",
"conservative_value": 19.93,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Visions (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:55:46.400277Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f1071439b89.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f81f65a9d91",
"realistic_value": 58.41,
"optimistic_value": 54.98,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love",
"conservative_value": 35.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:55:46.176527Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f81f65a9d91.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_8de58fb3b4d28879a219b424",
"input_rarity": "Restricted",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 3.27,
"skin_id": "skin-459ac0342b48",
"listing_id": "515242423037999437",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-459ac0342b48.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:45:12.471305Z"
},
{
"price": 3.45,
"skin_id": "skin-459ac0342b48",
"listing_id": "521997191220886422",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-459ac0342b48.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:45:12.471305Z"
},
{
"price": 11.66,
"skin_id": "skin-e2b145a9faa7",
"listing_id": "508486392204151142",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Vent Rush (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Vent Rush",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e2b145a9faa7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:42:36.946446Z"
},
{
"price": 4.75,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "521997988014719718",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:32.394071Z"
},
{
"price": 5.4,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "506235337025176368",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:32.394071Z"
},
{
"price": 5.9,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "490472790737683059",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:32.394071Z"
},
{
"price": 7.53,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "514116636505408218",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:32.394071Z"
},
{
"price": 9,
"skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"listing_id": "496102237883506139",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:31.203536Z"
},
{
"price": 15.5,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "496101493270757831",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:37.432665Z"
},
{
"price": 16.99,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "523123091079375442",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:37.432665Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Classified",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-31:3+collection-set-community-37:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear ST | Crane Flight 23.3% $126.41 Ice Coaled 10.0% $28.04 Kintsugi 23.3% $23.11 Deathgaze 23.3% $21.75 Kiss♥Love 10.0% $13.55 Visions 10.0% $10.49 | $126.41 +241.5% | $45.17 +22.0% | 23.3% | +121.7% | $37.02 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 23.3% $63.86 Ice Coaled 10.0% $16.45 Kintsugi 23.3% $12.65 Deathgaze 23.3% $11.72 Visions 10.0% $6.87 Kiss♥Love 10.0% $6.43 | $63.86 +215.2% | $23.56 +16.3% | 23.3% | +110.6% | $20.26 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 26.7% $290.04 Kintsugi 26.7% $64.80 Deathgaze 26.7% $61.47 Ice Coaled 6.7% $58.75 Kiss♥Love 6.7% $58.41 Visions 6.7% $20.65 | $290.04 +225.6% | $120.20 +34.9% | 26.7% | +115.6% | $89.09 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 20.0% $290.04 Kintsugi 20.0% $64.80 Deathgaze 20.0% $61.47 Ice Coaled 13.3% $58.75 Kiss♥Love 13.3% $58.41 Visions 13.3% $20.65 | $290.04 +270.0% | $101.64 +29.7% | 20.0% | +121.5% | $78.38 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 16.7% $290.04 Kintsugi 16.7% $64.80 Deathgaze 16.7% $61.47 Ice Coaled 16.7% $58.75 Kiss♥Love 16.7% $58.41 Visions 16.7% $20.65 | $290.04 +298.1% | $92.35 +26.8% | 16.7% | +123.1% | $72.85 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 13.3% $290.04 Kintsugi 13.3% $64.80 Deathgaze 13.3% $61.47 Ice Coaled 20.0% $58.75 Kiss♥Love 20.0% $58.41 Visions 20.0% $20.65 | $290.04 +318.8% | $83.07 +19.9% | 13.3% | +119.4% | $69.26 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 10.0% $63.86 Ice Coaled 23.3% $16.45 Kintsugi 10.0% $12.65 Deathgaze 10.0% $11.72 Visions 23.3% $6.87 Kiss♥Love 23.3% $6.25 | $63.86 +369.9% | $15.72 +15.7% | 33.3% | +121.7% | $13.59 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×8+The Dead Hand Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 6.7% $63.86 Ice Coaled 26.7% $16.45 Kintsugi 6.7% $12.65 Deathgaze 6.7% $11.72 Visions 26.7% $6.87 Kiss♥Love 26.7% $6.25 | $63.86 +423.0% | $13.77 +12.8% | 40.0% | +115.0% | $12.21 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×9+The Dead Hand Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 3.3% $63.86 Ice Coaled 30.0% $16.45 Kintsugi 3.3% $12.65 Deathgaze 3.3% $11.72 Visions 30.0% $6.87 Kiss♥Love 30.0% $6.43 | $63.86 +451.0% | $11.87 +2.4% | 40.0% | +91.6% | $11.59 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum  14.0% $51.27 Firebreathing  14.0% $31.66 Amberline  14.0% $18.87 Galigator 14.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $13.92 Crazy 8  6.0% $9.52 | $51.27 +225.3% | $20.09 +27.5% | 42.0% | +83.1% | $15.76 | — |