The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Irezumi
2x $0.11
Slag
1x $0.12
Warm Blooded
3x $0.36
Fraise Crane
2x $0.47
Sky Mandala
2x $0.60
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
35.0% $7.14
Sleeping Potion
35.0% $2.57
Block-18
6.0% $0.77
Etch Lord
6.0% $0.73
Hybrid
6.0% $0.71
Analog Input
6.0% $0.70
Max Win
$7.14 (+54.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.61 (-22.0%)
Win %
35.0%
Volatility
+58.2%
Cost
$4.63
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.63
Ask Price EV $3.61 (-22.0%)
Bid Price EV $3.28 (-29.2%)
Ask Profit $-1.02 (-22.0%)
Bid Profit $-1.35 (-29.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.33 (+7.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.02
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.35
Risk
Win Probability 35.0%
Loss Probability 65.0%
Best Case $7.14 (+54.2%)
Worst Case $0.66 (-85.7%)
Volatility +58.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 65.0%
Avg Win +$2.51
Avg Loss -$2.92
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.66 (-85.7%)
Std Dev $2.69
Avg Norm Float 0.3841
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 145h 59m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Field-Tested
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Field-Tested
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Field-Tested
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.60 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Field-Tested
$0.81 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$1.05 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01H 00M 09S //TOTAL COST $4.63 //ASK PRICE EV $3.61 //BID PRICE EV $3.28 //ASK PROFIT $-1.02 (-22.0%) //BID PROFIT $-1.35 (-29.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 35.0% //BEST CASE $7.14 //VOLATILITY +58.2% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
35.0%
$7.14
+$2.51
+54.2%
$6.60
+$1.97
+42.5%
$0.54
7.6%
—
NUKE
35.0%
$2.57
-$2.06
-44.5%
$2.25
-$2.38
-51.4%
$0.32
12.4%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.77
-$3.86
-83.3%
$0.71
-$3.92
-84.7%
$0.06
7.9%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.73
-$3.90
-84.2%
$0.58
-$4.05
-87.5%
$0.15
20.5%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.71
-$3.92
-84.7%
$0.57
-$4.06
-87.7%
$0.14
19.7%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.70
-$3.93
-84.9%
$0.60
-$4.03
-87.0%
$0.10
14.3%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.66
-$3.97
-85.7%
$0.57
-$4.06
-87.7%
$0.09
13.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.26889799999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 7.1415,
"optimistic_value": 6.9,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 6.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:52:33.426030Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.26889799999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 2.5675,
"optimistic_value": 2.55,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:42:39.137262Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.38414,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 0.71,
"optimistic_value": 0.71,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 0.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:17:11.263775Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.2580940625,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 0.771,
"optimistic_value": 0.75,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 0.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18 (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T22:11:50.072397Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.38414,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 0.73,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 0.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:02:07.825109Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.38414,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 0.66,
"optimistic_value": 0.66,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 0.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Just Smile (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:48:11.289194Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.23772888039999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 0.7004999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.69,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 0.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:54:12.594594Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_88d12d2346170c8bc7cad3c5",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "498354089953783615",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Irezumi (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:42.759392Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "498354089953634395",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Slag (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:41:20.342768Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "512990789045330051",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Irezumi (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:42.759392Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "515242588555264309",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:01.534766Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "512990789045394995",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:01.534766Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "529879287551741328",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:13.077204Z"
},
{
"price": 0.6,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "493850438107199332",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:28.993188Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "526501587737763809",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:28.993188Z"
},
{
"price": 0.81,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "637964245136912621",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:13.077204Z"
},
{
"price": 1.05,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "494975741590866474",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:23.080348Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-33:3+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $13.94 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Block-18 6.0% $1.42 Analog Input 6.0% $1.12 Etch Lord 6.0% $0.81 Just Smile 6.0% $0.78 | $13.94 +86.6% | $9.31 +24.6% | 70.0% | +68.5% | $7.47 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 35.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $24.63 Block-18 6.0% $4.18 Analog Input 6.0% $2.99 Etch Lord 6.0% $1.72 Just Smile 6.0% $1.62 | $26.79 +73.4% | $18.72 +21.2% | 70.0% | +63.9% | $15.45 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.60 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $11.82 Block-18 10.0% $1.33 Analog Input 10.0% $1.11 Etch Lord 10.0% $0.81 Just Smile 10.0% $0.76 | $13.60 +166.7% | $6.83 +34.0% | 50.0% | +109.7% | $5.10 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 10.0% $13.60 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Block-18 16.0% $1.36 Analog Input 16.0% $1.11 Etch Lord 16.0% $0.81 Just Smile 16.0% $0.76 | $13.60 +446.3% | $3.31 +32.8% | 20.0% | +185.2% | $2.49 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.60 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Block-18 8.0% $1.33 Analog Input 8.0% $1.11 Etch Lord 8.0% $0.81 Just Smile 8.0% $0.76 | $13.60 +120.5% | $8.01 +29.8% | 60.0% | +88.0% | $6.17 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear | Party Animal  20.0% $158.85 Black Lotus  26.7% $12.65 Jawbreaker  26.7% $10.79 Olympus  26.7% $7.59 | $158.85 +370.2% | $40.05 +18.5% | 20.0% | +175.9% | $33.78 | — |