The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Motorized
1x $0.27
Hideout
1x $0.30
Dezastre
1x $0.32
Earth Mandala
2x $0.52
Sky Mandala
2x $0.60
Warm Blooded
3x $1.07
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
35.0% $13.56
Sleeping Potion
35.0% $11.82
Block-18
6.0% $1.43
Analog Input
6.0% $1.13
Hybrid
6.0% $0.75
Just Smile
6.0% $0.74
Max Win
$13.56 (+88.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$9.17 (+27.2%)
Win %
70.0%
Volatility
+75.3%
Cost
$7.21
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $7.21
Ask Price EV $9.17 (+27.2%)
Bid Price EV $7.93 (+10.0%)
Ask Profit $1.96 (+27.2%)
Bid Profit $0.72 (+10.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.24 (+17.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.96
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.72
Risk
Win Probability 70.0%
Loss Probability 30.0%
Best Case $13.56 (+88.1%)
Worst Case $0.70 (-90.3%)
Volatility +75.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$5.48
Avg Loss -$6.26
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.70 (-90.3%)
Std Dev $5.43
Avg Norm Float 0.2138
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 55h 11m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.60 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.07 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.08 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Minimal Wear
$1.18 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.26 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01H 07M 49S //TOTAL COST $7.21 //ASK PRICE EV $9.17 //BID PRICE EV $7.93 //ASK PROFIT $1.96 (+27.2%) //BID PROFIT $0.72 (+10.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 70.0% //BEST CASE $13.56 //VOLATILITY +75.3% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
35.0%
$13.56
+$6.35
+88.1%
$12.22
+$5.01
+69.5%
$1.34
9.9%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
35.0%
$11.82
+$4.61
+64.0%
$9.69
+$2.48
+34.4%
$2.13
18.0%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.43
-$5.78
-80.1%
$1.30
-$5.91
-82.0%
$0.13
9.2%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.13
-$6.08
-84.3%
$0.98
-$6.23
-86.4%
$0.15
13.3%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.75
-$6.46
-89.5%
$0.74
-$6.47
-89.7%
$0.01
1.8%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.74
-$6.47
-89.7%
$0.71
-$6.50
-90.2%
$0.03
4.5%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.70
-$6.51
-90.3%
$0.64
-$6.57
-91.1%
$0.06
8.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.149674,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 13.5615,
"optimistic_value": 13.39,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 12.22,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:21.765876Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.149674,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 11.8215,
"optimistic_value": 11.79,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 9.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T22:50:43.641579Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.21382,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 0.7535,
"optimistic_value": 0.75,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 0.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:43:24.978028Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.1436603125,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 1.4315,
"optimistic_value": 1.4,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 1.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18 (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:36:43.925028Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.21382,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 0.6995,
"optimistic_value": 0.64,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 0.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:50:36.468234Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.21382,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 0.7434999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.74,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 0.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Just Smile (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:51:04.193523Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.1323246452,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 1.1305,
"optimistic_value": 1.12,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 0.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:47:49.052860Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_88d12d2346170c8bc7cad3c5",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "529879287551510892",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:23.550432Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "503983589619871867",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:52:13.674123Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "652601015910276048",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:40:20.744846Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "517494336189226390",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:54:01.710864Z"
},
{
"price": 0.6,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "493850438107199332",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:54:07.974238Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "526501587737763809",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:54:07.974238Z"
},
{
"price": 1.07,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "496102290328584671",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:25.410174Z"
},
{
"price": 1.08,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "508487136895989362",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:25.410174Z"
},
{
"price": 1.18,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "502857689862550924",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:32.106711Z"
},
{
"price": 1.26,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "510738823413937978",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:25.410174Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-33:3+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 35.0% $26.82 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $24.63 Block-18 6.0% $4.18 Analog Input 6.0% $2.99 Etch Lord 6.0% $1.69 Just Smile 6.0% $1.62 | $26.82 +74.4% | $18.73 +21.8% | 70.0% | +64.3% | $15.38 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 35.0% $6.87 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.47 Block-18 6.0% $0.77 Etch Lord 6.0% $0.72 Analog Input 6.0% $0.70 Hybrid 6.0% $0.66 | $6.87 +108.3% | $3.48 +5.5% | 35.0% | +75.6% | $3.30 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Exothermic 35.0% $6.87 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.47 Block-18 6.0% $0.77 Etch Lord 6.0% $0.73 Analog Input 6.0% $0.70 Hybrid 6.0% $0.66 | $6.87 +98.7% | $3.48 +0.6% | 35.0% | +72.1% | $3.46 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.92 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Block-18 8.0% $1.44 Analog Input 8.0% $1.13 Etch Lord 8.0% $0.81 Just Smile 8.0% $0.78 | $13.92 +125.9% | $8.12 +31.7% | 60.0% | +89.3% | $6.16 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×9+The Harlequin Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear | Party Animal  10.0% $158.85 Black Lotus  30.0% $12.65 Jawbreaker  30.0% $10.83 Olympus  30.0% $7.59 | $158.85 +636.4% | $25.21 +16.9% | 10.0% | +206.7% | $21.57 | — |