The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Motorized
1x $0.36
Dezastre
2x $2.00
Sky Mandala
1x $1.58
Earth Mandala
3x $2.30
Warm Blooded
3x $2.36
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
35.0% $26.79
Sleeping Potion
35.0% $24.63
Etch Lord
6.0% $10.86
Just Smile
6.0% $9.45
Hybrid
6.0% $8.10
Block-18
6.0% $4.18
Max Win
$26.79 (+23.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$20.13 (-6.9%)
Win %
70.0%
Volatility
+40.4%
Cost
$21.63
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $21.63
Ask Price EV $20.13 (-6.9%)
Bid Price EV $19.03 (-12.0%)
Ask Profit $-1.50 (-6.9%)
Bid Profit $-2.60 (-12.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.11 (+5.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.50
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.60
Risk
Win Probability 70.0%
Loss Probability 30.0%
Best Case $26.79 (+23.8%)
Worst Case $2.99 (-86.2%)
Volatility +40.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$4.08
Avg Loss -$14.51
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.99 (-86.2%)
Std Dev $8.73
Avg Norm Float 0.0696
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 25h 58m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Factory New
$2.00 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Factory New
$2.43 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Minimal Wear
$1.58 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.47 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.70 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$3.07 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01H 00M 04S //TOTAL COST $21.63 //ASK PRICE EV $20.13 //BID PRICE EV $19.03 //ASK PROFIT $-1.50 (-6.9%) //BID PROFIT $-2.60 (-12.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 70.0% //BEST CASE $26.79 //VOLATILITY +40.4% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
35.0%
$26.79
+$5.16
+23.8%
$26.03
+$4.40
+20.3%
$0.76
2.8%
—
SMALL WIN
35.0%
$24.63
+$3.00
+13.9%
$22.28
+$0.65
+3.0%
$2.35
9.5%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$10.86
-$10.77
-49.8%
$10.67
-$10.96
-50.7%
$0.19
1.7%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$9.45
-$12.18
-56.3%
$9.39
-$12.24
-56.6%
$0.06
0.6%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$8.10
-$13.53
-62.6%
$8.09
-$13.54
-62.6%
$0.01
0.1%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$4.18
-$17.45
-80.7%
$4.17
-$17.46
-80.7%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$2.99
-$18.64
-86.2%
$2.96
-$18.67
-86.3%
$0.03
1.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.048706,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 26.787,
"optimistic_value": 26.71,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 26.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:42:32.269678Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.048706,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 24.63,
"optimistic_value": 24.56,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 22.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06958,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 8.1,
"optimistic_value": 8.1,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 8.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:55:08.725451Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.0467490625,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 4.18,
"optimistic_value": 4.18,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 4.17,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:58:15.731735Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06958,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 10.857,
"optimistic_value": 10.78,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 10.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:57:41.269951Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06958,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 9.4505,
"optimistic_value": 9.44,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 9.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Just Smile (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:39:58.026443Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.0430602788,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 2.99,
"optimistic_value": 2.99,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 2.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:56:12.347201Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_88d12d2346170c8bc7cad3c5",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "493850490549237988",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:45:25.419048Z"
},
{
"price": 2,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "503983589619391051",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:55:09.898683Z"
},
{
"price": 2.43,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "633460645527307573",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:55:09.898683Z"
},
{
"price": 1.58,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "528753387758077101",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:14.484965Z"
},
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "511864888985191545",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:05.790998Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "516368488725166478",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:05.790998Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "517494388633380694",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:05.410674Z"
},
{
"price": 2.47,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "496102290329375051",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:05.790998Z"
},
{
"price": 2.7,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472625089366055",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:05.410674Z"
},
{
"price": 3.07,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "505109323870001060",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:05.410674Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-33:3+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $13.94 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Block-18 6.0% $1.42 Analog Input 6.0% $1.12 Etch Lord 6.0% $0.81 Just Smile 6.0% $0.78 | $13.94 +86.6% | $9.31 +24.6% | 70.0% | +68.5% | $7.47 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 35.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $24.63 Block-18 6.0% $4.18 Analog Input 6.0% $2.99 Etch Lord 6.0% $1.72 Just Smile 6.0% $1.62 | $26.79 +73.4% | $18.72 +21.2% | 70.0% | +63.9% | $15.45 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.60 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $11.82 Block-18 10.0% $1.33 Analog Input 10.0% $1.11 Etch Lord 10.0% $0.81 Just Smile 10.0% $0.76 | $13.60 +166.7% | $6.83 +34.0% | 50.0% | +109.7% | $5.10 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 10.0% $13.60 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Block-18 16.0% $1.36 Analog Input 16.0% $1.11 Etch Lord 16.0% $0.81 Just Smile 16.0% $0.76 | $13.60 +446.3% | $3.31 +32.8% | 20.0% | +185.2% | $2.49 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.60 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Block-18 8.0% $1.33 Analog Input 8.0% $1.11 Etch Lord 8.0% $0.81 Just Smile 8.0% $0.76 | $13.60 +120.5% | $8.01 +29.8% | 60.0% | +88.0% | $6.17 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear | Party Animal  20.0% $158.85 Black Lotus  26.7% $12.65 Jawbreaker  26.7% $10.79 Olympus  26.7% $7.59 | $158.85 +370.2% | $40.05 +18.5% | 20.0% | +175.9% | $33.78 | — |