The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Hideout
2x $0.30
Dezastre
1x $0.32
Earth Mandala
4x $1.18
Sky Mandala
1x $1.58
Warm Blooded
2x $2.27
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
35.0% $26.79
Sleeping Potion
35.0% $24.63
Block-18
6.0% $4.18
Analog Input
6.0% $2.99
Etch Lord
6.0% $1.72
Just Smile
6.0% $1.62
Max Win
$26.79 (+73.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$18.72 (+21.2%)
Win %
70.0%
Volatility
+69.4%
Cost
$15.45
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $15.45
Ask Price EV $18.72 (+21.2%)
Bid Price EV $17.61 (+14.0%)
Ask Profit $3.27 (+21.2%)
Bid Profit $2.16 (+14.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.10 (+7.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$3.27
Bid Slippage Buffer +$2.16
Risk
Win Probability 70.0%
Loss Probability 30.0%
Best Case $26.79 (+73.4%)
Worst Case $1.54 (-90.0%)
Volatility +69.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$10.26
Avg Loss -$13.04
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.54 (-90.0%)
Std Dev $10.73
Avg Norm Float 0.0998
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 25h 58m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Minimal Wear
$1.18 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Minimal Wear
$1.58 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.47 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01H 00M 09S //TOTAL COST $15.45 //ASK PRICE EV $18.72 //BID PRICE EV $17.61 //ASK PROFIT $3.27 (+21.2%) //BID PROFIT $2.16 (+14.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 70.0% //BEST CASE $26.79 //VOLATILITY +69.4% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
35.0%
$26.79
+$11.34
+73.4%
$26.03
+$10.58
+68.5%
$0.76
2.8%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
35.0%
$24.63
+$9.18
+59.4%
$22.28
+$6.83
+44.2%
$2.35
9.5%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$4.18
-$11.27
-72.9%
$4.17
-$11.28
-73.0%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$2.99
-$12.46
-80.6%
$2.96
-$12.49
-80.8%
$0.03
1.0%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.72
-$13.73
-88.9%
$1.54
-$13.91
-90.0%
$0.18
10.5%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.62
-$13.83
-89.5%
$1.58
-$13.87
-89.8%
$0.04
2.3%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.54
-$13.91
-90.0%
$1.51
-$13.94
-90.2%
$0.03
1.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.06983199999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 26.787,
"optimistic_value": 26.71,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 26.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:42:32.269678Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.06983199999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 24.63,
"optimistic_value": 24.56,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 22.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.09976,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 1.54,
"optimistic_value": 1.54,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 1.51,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:51:09.848206Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06702625,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 4.18,
"optimistic_value": 4.18,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 4.17,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:58:15.731735Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.09976,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 1.72,
"optimistic_value": 1.72,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 1.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:55:56.018203Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.09976,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 1.617,
"optimistic_value": 1.61,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 1.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Just Smile (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:55:18.453525Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.061737473599999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 2.99,
"optimistic_value": 2.99,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 2.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:56:12.347201Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_88d12d2346170c8bc7cad3c5",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "503983589619871867",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:01:10.085155Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "509613089303862039",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:01:10.085155Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "652601015910276048",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:51:18.914143Z"
},
{
"price": 1.18,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "502857689862550924",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:45:05.146172Z"
},
{
"price": 1.58,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "528753387758077101",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:14.484965Z"
},
{
"price": 2.27,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "524249787960537243",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:05.410674Z"
},
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "511864888985191545",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:05.790998Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "516368488725166478",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:05.790998Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "517494388633380694",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:05.410674Z"
},
{
"price": 2.47,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "496102290329375051",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:05.790998Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-33:3+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $13.94 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Block-18 6.0% $1.42 Analog Input 6.0% $1.12 Etch Lord 6.0% $0.81 Just Smile 6.0% $0.78 | $13.94 +86.6% | $9.31 +24.6% | 70.0% | +68.5% | $7.47 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.60 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $11.82 Block-18 10.0% $1.33 Analog Input 10.0% $1.11 Etch Lord 10.0% $0.81 Just Smile 10.0% $0.76 | $13.60 +166.7% | $6.83 +34.0% | 50.0% | +109.7% | $5.10 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 10.0% $13.60 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Block-18 16.0% $1.36 Analog Input 16.0% $1.11 Etch Lord 16.0% $0.81 Just Smile 16.0% $0.76 | $13.60 +446.3% | $3.31 +32.8% | 20.0% | +185.2% | $2.49 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.60 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Block-18 8.0% $1.33 Analog Input 8.0% $1.11 Etch Lord 8.0% $0.81 Just Smile 8.0% $0.76 | $13.60 +120.5% | $8.01 +29.8% | 60.0% | +88.0% | $6.17 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear | Party Animal  20.0% $158.85 Black Lotus  26.7% $12.65 Jawbreaker  26.7% $10.79 Olympus  26.7% $7.59 | $158.85 +370.2% | $40.05 +18.5% | 20.0% | +175.9% | $33.78 | — |