The Fracture Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9
Restricted → Classified FN ST 10 items
Contract
Restricted → Classified Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Kitbash
1x $2.01
Urban Sovereign
6x $4.68
Amberline
1x $6.64
Galigator
2x $7.29
↓
Possible Outputs
Crane Flight
30.0% $290.04
Kintsugi
30.0% $65.51
Deathgaze
30.0% $61.47
Tooth Fairy
3.3% $39.13
Vogue
3.3% $37.31
Entombed
3.3% $15.08
Max Win
$290.04 (+200.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$128.16 (+32.8%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+110.4%
Cost
$96.49
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $96.49
Ask Price EV $128.16 (+32.8%)
Bid Price EV $104.65 (+8.5%)
Ask Profit $31.67 (+32.8%)
Bid Profit $8.16 (+8.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $23.51 (+24.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$31.67
Bid Slippage Buffer +$8.16
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $290.04 (+200.6%)
Worst Case $15.08 (-84.4%)
Volatility +110.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 70.0%
Avg Win +$193.55
Avg Loss -$37.72
Bottom 5% Outcome $37.31 (-61.3%)
Std Dev $106.49
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 6h 13m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP5-SD | Kitbash
—
Minimal Wear
$2.01 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$4.68 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$5.40 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Minimal Wear
$6.64 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Galigator
—
Minimal Wear
$7.29 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Galigator
—
Minimal Wear
$9.00 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$13.68 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$15.30 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$15.50 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$16.99 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 38M 46S //TOTAL COST $96.49 //ASK PRICE EV $128.16 //BID PRICE EV $104.65 //ASK PROFIT $31.67 (+32.8%) //BID PROFIT $8.16 (+8.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $290.04 //VOLATILITY +110.4% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$290.04
+$193.55
+200.6%
$229.11
+$132.62
+137.4%
$60.93
21.0%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$65.51
-$30.98
-32.1%
$55.11
-$41.38
-42.9%
$10.40
15.9%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$61.47
-$35.02
-36.3%
$55.38
-$41.11
-42.6%
$6.09
9.9%
—
NUKE
3.3%
$39.13
-$57.36
-59.5%
$35.65
-$60.84
-63.1%
$3.48
8.9%
—
NUKE
3.3%
$37.31
-$59.18
-61.3%
$33.41
-$63.08
-65.4%
$3.90
10.5%
—
NUKE
3.3%
$15.08
-$81.41
-84.4%
$13.91
-$82.58
-85.6%
$1.17
7.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.06985,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
"realistic_value": 290.0445,
"optimistic_value": 279.45,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
"conservative_value": 229.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:40.031809Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.06985,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
"realistic_value": 65.5065,
"optimistic_value": 64.74,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
"conservative_value": 55.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:45.715369Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.06985,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
"realistic_value": 61.465999999999994,
"optimistic_value": 59.66,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
"conservative_value": 55.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:58.530181Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.0523875,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6e390882e9a0",
"realistic_value": 37.3115,
"optimistic_value": 37,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Vogue",
"conservative_value": 33.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:40:33.043777Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e390882e9a0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.050990499999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1e9229953491",
"realistic_value": 39.1265,
"optimistic_value": 39.06,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Tooth Fairy",
"conservative_value": 35.65,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:20:53.131231Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1e9229953491.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.034925,
"output_skin_id": "skin-daae504f859c",
"realistic_value": 15.076,
"optimistic_value": 14.95,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Entombed",
"conservative_value": 13.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Entombed (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:50:51.100128Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-daae504f859c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_877489225d3b79f5be2c9e93",
"input_rarity": "Restricted",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 2.01,
"skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"listing_id": "509613036860352603",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Kitbash (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:45:32.310207Z"
},
{
"price": 4.68,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "529879287551222028",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:46.257285Z"
},
{
"price": 5.4,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "506235337025176368",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:46.257285Z"
},
{
"price": 6.64,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "492724538182346589",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:38:01.068828Z"
},
{
"price": 7.29,
"skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"listing_id": "524249787960966687",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:45.158952Z"
},
{
"price": 9,
"skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"listing_id": "496102237883506139",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:45.158952Z"
},
{
"price": 13.68,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "518620288314054676",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:53.211943Z"
},
{
"price": 15.3,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "518619491430346084",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:53.211943Z"
},
{
"price": 15.5,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "496101493270757831",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:53.211943Z"
},
{
"price": 16.99,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "523123091079375442",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:53.211943Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Classified",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-26:1+collection-set-community-37:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 30.0% $63.86 Kintsugi 30.0% $12.65 Deathgaze 30.0% $11.91 Tooth Fairy 3.3% $11.12 Vogue 3.3% $10.20 Entombed 3.3% $7.15 | $63.86 +169.8% | $27.48 +16.1% | 30.0% | +100.7% | $23.67 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear ST | Crane Flight 30.0% $126.41 Kintsugi 30.0% $22.62 Deathgaze 30.0% $20.41 Tooth Fairy 3.3% $19.65 Vogue 3.3% $16.48 Entombed 3.3% $9.46 | $126.41 +154.5% | $52.35 +5.4% | 30.0% | +97.7% | $49.68 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 23.3% $290.04 Kintsugi 23.3% $65.51 Deathgaze 23.3% $61.47 Tooth Fairy 10.0% $39.13 Vogue 10.0% $37.31 Entombed 10.0% $15.08 | $290.04 +258.2% | $106.46 +31.5% | 23.3% | +126.5% | $80.98 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 20.0% $290.04 Kintsugi 20.0% $65.51 Deathgaze 20.0% $61.47 Tooth Fairy 13.3% $39.13 Vogue 13.3% $37.31 Entombed 13.3% $15.08 | $290.04 +281.6% | $95.61 +25.8% | 20.0% | +129.7% | $76.00 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 16.7% $63.86 Kintsugi 16.7% $12.65 Deathgaze 16.7% $11.60 Tooth Fairy 16.7% $11.12 Vogue 16.7% $10.20 Entombed 16.7% $7.15 | $63.86 +300.4% | $19.43 +21.8% | 16.7% | +125.0% | $15.95 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 13.3% $63.86 Kintsugi 13.3% $12.65 Deathgaze 13.3% $11.91 Tooth Fairy 20.0% $11.12 Vogue 20.0% $10.20 Entombed 20.0% $7.00 | $63.86 +329.2% | $17.45 +17.3% | 13.3% | +123.0% | $14.88 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear ST | Crane Flight 10.0% $126.41 Kintsugi 10.0% $22.62 Deathgaze 10.0% $20.41 Tooth Fairy 23.3% $19.65 Vogue 23.3% $16.48 Entombed 23.3% $9.46 | $126.41 +395.1% | $27.58 +8.0% | 10.0% | +130.2% | $25.53 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×8+The Dead Hand Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear ST | Crane Flight 6.7% $126.41 Kintsugi 6.7% $22.62 Deathgaze 6.7% $21.23 Tooth Fairy 26.7% $19.65 Vogue 26.7% $16.48 Entombed 26.7% $15.93 | $126.41 +413.9% | $25.23 +2.6% | 6.7% | +110.3% | $24.60 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×9+The Dead Hand Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 3.3% $63.86 Tooth Fairy 30.0% $19.65 Vogue 30.0% $16.48 Kintsugi 3.3% $12.65 Deathgaze 3.3% $11.60 Entombed 30.0% $9.46 | $63.86 +290.3% | $16.61 +1.5% | 63.3% | +59.2% | $16.36 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum  10.0% $51.27 Firebreathing  10.0% $31.66 Amberline 10.0% $18.87 Galigator 10.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $13.79 Brother  10.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +292.3% | $17.01 +30.1% | 50.0% | +91.7% | $13.07 | — |