The Fracture Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9
Restricted → Classified MW ST 10 items
Contract
Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear StatTrak™
Inputs
Kitbash
1x $2.00
Amberline
2x $3.18
Urban Sovereign
6x $3.19
Galigator
1x $7.29
↓
Possible Outputs
Crane Flight
30.0% $126.41
Kintsugi
30.0% $22.62
Deathgaze
30.0% $21.23
Tooth Fairy
3.3% $19.65
Vogue
3.3% $16.48
Entombed
3.3% $9.37
Max Win
$126.41 (+173.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$52.59 (+13.9%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+104.8%
Cost
$46.19
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $46.19
Ask Price EV $52.59 (+13.9%)
Bid Price EV $47.08 (+1.9%)
Ask Profit $6.40 (+13.9%)
Bid Profit $0.89 (+1.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $5.52 (+11.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$6.40
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.89
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $126.41 (+173.7%)
Worst Case $9.37 (-79.7%)
Volatility +104.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 70.0%
Avg Win +$80.22
Avg Loss -$25.23
Bottom 5% Outcome $16.48 (-64.3%)
Std Dev $48.39
Avg Norm Float 0.1461
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 9m
Oldest Output Price 141h 29m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP5-SD | Kitbash
—
Minimal Wear
$2.00 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Field-Tested
$3.18 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Field-Tested
$3.19 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Field-Tested
$3.64 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$4.72 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$4.75 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$5.38 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$5.40 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Minimal Wear
$6.64 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Galigator
—
Minimal Wear
$7.29 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 42M 00S //TOTAL COST $46.19 //ASK PRICE EV $52.59 //BID PRICE EV $47.08 //ASK PROFIT $6.40 (+13.9%) //BID PROFIT $0.89 (+1.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $126.41 //VOLATILITY +104.8% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
30.0%
$126.41
+$80.22
+173.7%
$112.39
+$66.20
+143.3%
$14.02
11.1%
—
NUKE
30.0%
$22.62
-$23.57
-51.0%
$20.66
-$25.53
-55.3%
$1.96
8.7%
—
NUKE
30.0%
$21.23
-$24.96
-54.0%
$19.38
-$26.81
-58.0%
$1.85
8.7%
—
NUKE
3.3%
$19.65
-$26.54
-57.5%
$16.67
-$29.52
-63.9%
$2.98
15.2%
—
NUKE
3.3%
$16.48
-$29.71
-64.3%
$15.77
-$30.42
-65.9%
$0.71
4.3%
—
NUKE
3.3%
$9.37
-$36.82
-79.7%
$8.08
-$38.11
-82.5%
$1.29
13.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.14607,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
"realistic_value": 126.41149999999999,
"optimistic_value": 124,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
"conservative_value": 112.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:44.452841Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.14607,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
"realistic_value": 22.619999999999997,
"optimistic_value": 22.2,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
"conservative_value": 20.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:59.086341Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.14607,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
"realistic_value": 21.23,
"optimistic_value": 20.6,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
"conservative_value": 19.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:59.001396Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.1095525,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6e390882e9a0",
"realistic_value": 16.4755,
"optimistic_value": 15.8,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Vogue",
"conservative_value": 15.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T15:32:23.119672Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e390882e9a0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.1066311,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1e9229953491",
"realistic_value": 19.648,
"optimistic_value": 19.55,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Tooth Fairy",
"conservative_value": 16.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:26:59.725320Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1e9229953491.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.073035,
"output_skin_id": "skin-daae504f859c",
"realistic_value": 9.3695,
"optimistic_value": 9.17,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Entombed",
"conservative_value": 8.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Entombed (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:12:20.172643Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-daae504f859c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_877489225d3b79f5be2c9e93",
"input_rarity": "Restricted",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 2,
"skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"listing_id": "643592475756563867",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Kitbash (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:56:26.032379Z"
},
{
"price": 3.18,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "502857689861474128",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:48:59.510287Z"
},
{
"price": 3.19,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "493850490550002916",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:57.565913Z"
},
{
"price": 3.64,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "498354037510570279",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:57.565913Z"
},
{
"price": 4.72,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "500605889840023871",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:59.257802Z"
},
{
"price": 4.75,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "521997988014719718",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:59.257802Z"
},
{
"price": 5.38,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "500605837398261191",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:59.257802Z"
},
{
"price": 5.4,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "506235337025176368",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:59.257802Z"
},
{
"price": 6.64,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "492724538182346589",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:49:14.354664Z"
},
{
"price": 7.29,
"skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"listing_id": "524249787960966687",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:56.622316Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Classified",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-26:1+collection-set-community-37:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 30.0% $63.86 Kintsugi 30.0% $12.65 Tooth Fairy 3.3% $11.12 Deathgaze 30.0% $10.67 Vogue 3.3% $10.20 Entombed 3.3% $7.00 | $63.86 +169.8% | $27.10 +14.5% | 30.0% | +101.8% | $23.67 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 23.3% $290.04 Kintsugi 23.3% $65.51 Deathgaze 23.3% $61.47 Tooth Fairy 10.0% $39.26 Vogue 10.0% $36.58 Entombed 10.0% $15.93 | $290.04 +263.6% | $106.48 +33.5% | 23.3% | +128.4% | $79.77 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 20.0% $290.04 Kintsugi 20.0% $65.51 Deathgaze 20.0% $61.47 Tooth Fairy 13.3% $39.26 Vogue 13.3% $36.58 Entombed 13.3% $15.93 | $290.04 +282.8% | $95.64 +26.2% | 20.0% | +130.0% | $75.77 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 16.7% $63.86 Kintsugi 16.7% $12.65 Deathgaze 16.7% $11.91 Tooth Fairy 16.7% $11.12 Vogue 16.7% $10.20 Entombed 16.7% $7.00 | $63.86 +301.6% | $19.46 +22.4% | 16.7% | +125.4% | $15.90 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 13.3% $63.86 Kintsugi 13.3% $12.65 Deathgaze 13.3% $11.91 Tooth Fairy 20.0% $11.12 Vogue 20.0% $10.20 Entombed 20.0% $7.00 | $63.86 +340.1% | $17.45 +20.3% | 13.3% | +126.1% | $14.51 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 10.0% $63.86 Kintsugi 10.0% $12.65 Tooth Fairy 23.3% $11.12 Deathgaze 10.0% $10.67 Vogue 23.3% $10.20 Entombed 23.3% $7.00 | $63.86 +386.7% | $15.32 +16.8% | 10.0% | +124.1% | $13.12 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×8+The Dead Hand Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 6.7% $63.86 Kintsugi 6.7% $12.65 Deathgaze 6.7% $11.91 Tooth Fairy 26.7% $11.12 Vogue 26.7% $10.20 Entombed 26.7% $7.00 | $63.86 +437.5% | $13.44 +13.2% | 20.0% | +114.5% | $11.88 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×9+The Dead Hand Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 3.3% $63.86 Kintsugi 3.3% $12.65 Tooth Fairy 30.0% $11.12 Deathgaze 3.3% $10.67 Vogue 30.0% $10.20 Entombed 30.0% $7.00 | $63.86 +488.6% | $11.40 +5.1% | 36.7% | +91.3% | $10.85 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum  10.0% $51.27 Firebreathing  10.0% $31.66 Amberline 10.0% $18.87 Galigator 10.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $13.79 Brother  10.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +297.8% | $17.02 +32.1% | 50.0% | +92.9% | $12.89 | — |