The Fracture Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9
Restricted → Classified WW ST 10 items
Contract
Restricted → Classified Well-Worn StatTrak™
Inputs
Allure
1x $0.87
Amberline
8x $2.08
Urban Sovereign
1x $3.19
↓
Possible Outputs
Crane Flight
30.0% $45.29
Tooth Fairy
3.3% $11.12
Deathgaze
30.0% $10.22
Vogue
3.3% $10.20
Kintsugi
30.0% $7.96
Entombed
3.3% $7.00
Max Win
$45.29 (+98.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$19.98 (-12.5%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+72.7%
Cost
$22.84
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $22.84
Ask Price EV $19.98 (-12.5%)
Bid Price EV $18.15 (-20.5%)
Ask Profit $-2.86 (-12.5%)
Bid Profit $-4.69 (-20.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.83 (+8.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.86
Bid Slippage Buffer -$4.69
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $45.29 (+98.3%)
Worst Case $7.00 (-69.4%)
Volatility +72.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 70.0%
Avg Win +$22.44
Avg Loss -$13.70
Bottom 5% Outcome $7.96 (-65.1%)
Std Dev $16.60
Avg Norm Float 0.4059
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 15m
Oldest Output Price 141h 21m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Allure
—
Well-Worn
$0.87 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Battle-Scarred
$2.08 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Battle-Scarred
$2.09 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Battle-Scarred
$2.15 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Well-Worn
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Well-Worn
$2.31 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Well-Worn
$2.33 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Well-Worn
$2.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Field-Tested
$3.18 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Field-Tested
$3.19 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 42M 01S //TOTAL COST $22.84 //ASK PRICE EV $19.98 //BID PRICE EV $18.15 //ASK PROFIT $-2.86 (-12.5%) //BID PROFIT $-4.69 (-20.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $45.29 //VOLATILITY +72.7% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
30.0%
$45.29
+$22.44
+98.3%
$41.72
+$18.88
+82.7%
$3.56
7.9%
—
NUKE
3.3%
$11.12
-$11.72
-51.3%
$9.82
-$13.02
-57.0%
$1.30
11.7%
—
NUKE
30.0%
$10.22
-$12.62
-55.3%
$8.25
-$14.59
-63.9%
$1.97
19.2%
—
NUKE
3.3%
$10.20
-$12.64
-55.4%
$9.45
-$13.39
-58.6%
$0.75
7.3%
—
NUKE
30.0%
$7.96
-$14.88
-65.1%
$7.67
-$15.17
-66.4%
$0.29
3.6%
—
NUKE
3.3%
$7.00
-$15.84
-69.4%
$6.53
-$16.31
-71.4%
$0.47
6.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.40586,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
"realistic_value": 45.285,
"optimistic_value": 44.9,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
"conservative_value": 41.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:39.425805Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.40586,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
"realistic_value": 7.96,
"optimistic_value": 7.89,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
"conservative_value": 7.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:04.383011Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.40586,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
"realistic_value": 10.2155,
"optimistic_value": 10.17,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
"conservative_value": 8.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:03.108572Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.30439499999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6e390882e9a0",
"realistic_value": 10.196,
"optimistic_value": 10.14,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Vogue",
"conservative_value": 9.45,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:35:12.284900Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e390882e9a0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.2962778,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1e9229953491",
"realistic_value": 11.1155,
"optimistic_value": 11,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Tooth Fairy",
"conservative_value": 9.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:35:51.460417Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1e9229953491.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.20293,
"output_skin_id": "skin-daae504f859c",
"realistic_value": 6.998,
"optimistic_value": 6.9,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Entombed",
"conservative_value": 6.53,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Entombed (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:38:51.272248Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-daae504f859c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_877489225d3b79f5be2c9e93",
"input_rarity": "Restricted",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.87,
"skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"listing_id": "521997988015445910",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Allure (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:41:45.860237Z"
},
{
"price": 2.08,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "507361289452694821",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:49:05.348438Z"
},
{
"price": 2.09,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "514116688949678190",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:49:05.348438Z"
},
{
"price": 2.15,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "490472738292168531",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:49:05.348438Z"
},
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "525375635593980187",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:57.275700Z"
},
{
"price": 2.31,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "505109489448722396",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:57.275700Z"
},
{
"price": 2.33,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "507361237008630373",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:57.275700Z"
},
{
"price": 2.34,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "492724538182385829",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:57.275700Z"
},
{
"price": 3.18,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "502857689861474128",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:48:59.510287Z"
},
{
"price": 3.19,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "493850490550002916",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:57.565913Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Classified",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-26:1+collection-set-community-37:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 30.0% $63.86 Kintsugi 30.0% $12.65 Tooth Fairy 3.3% $11.12 Deathgaze 30.0% $10.67 Vogue 3.3% $10.20 Entombed 3.3% $7.00 | $63.86 +169.8% | $27.10 +14.5% | 30.0% | +101.8% | $23.67 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear ST | Crane Flight 30.0% $126.41 Kintsugi 30.0% $22.62 Deathgaze 30.0% $21.23 Tooth Fairy 3.3% $19.65 Vogue 3.3% $16.48 Entombed 3.3% $9.37 | $126.41 +173.7% | $52.59 +13.9% | 30.0% | +104.8% | $46.19 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 23.3% $290.04 Kintsugi 23.3% $65.51 Deathgaze 23.3% $61.47 Tooth Fairy 10.0% $39.26 Vogue 10.0% $36.58 Entombed 10.0% $15.93 | $290.04 +263.6% | $106.48 +33.5% | 23.3% | +128.4% | $79.77 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 20.0% $290.04 Kintsugi 20.0% $65.51 Deathgaze 20.0% $61.47 Tooth Fairy 13.3% $39.26 Vogue 13.3% $36.58 Entombed 13.3% $15.93 | $290.04 +282.8% | $95.64 +26.2% | 20.0% | +130.0% | $75.77 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 16.7% $63.86 Kintsugi 16.7% $12.65 Deathgaze 16.7% $11.91 Tooth Fairy 16.7% $11.12 Vogue 16.7% $10.20 Entombed 16.7% $7.00 | $63.86 +301.6% | $19.46 +22.4% | 16.7% | +125.4% | $15.90 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 13.3% $63.86 Kintsugi 13.3% $12.65 Deathgaze 13.3% $11.91 Tooth Fairy 20.0% $11.12 Vogue 20.0% $10.20 Entombed 20.0% $7.00 | $63.86 +340.1% | $17.45 +20.3% | 13.3% | +126.1% | $14.51 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 10.0% $63.86 Kintsugi 10.0% $12.65 Tooth Fairy 23.3% $11.12 Deathgaze 10.0% $10.67 Vogue 23.3% $10.20 Entombed 23.3% $7.00 | $63.86 +386.7% | $15.32 +16.8% | 10.0% | +124.1% | $13.12 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×8+The Dead Hand Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 6.7% $63.86 Kintsugi 6.7% $12.65 Deathgaze 6.7% $11.91 Tooth Fairy 26.7% $11.12 Vogue 26.7% $10.20 Entombed 26.7% $7.00 | $63.86 +437.5% | $13.44 +13.2% | 20.0% | +114.5% | $11.88 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×9+The Dead Hand Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 3.3% $63.86 Kintsugi 3.3% $12.65 Tooth Fairy 30.0% $11.12 Deathgaze 3.3% $10.67 Vogue 30.0% $10.20 Entombed 30.0% $7.00 | $63.86 +488.6% | $11.40 +5.1% | 36.7% | +91.3% | $10.85 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum  10.0% $51.27 Firebreathing  10.0% $31.66 Amberline 10.0% $18.87 Galigator  10.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $13.79 Brother  10.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +297.8% | $17.02 +32.1% | 50.0% | +92.9% | $12.89 | — |