The Fracture Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9
Restricted → Classified FT ST 10 items
Contract
Restricted → Classified Field-Tested StatTrak™
Inputs
Connexion
1x $1.24
Amberline
7x $2.08
Urban Sovereign
2x $3.19
↓
Possible Outputs
Crane Flight
30.0% $63.86
Kintsugi
30.0% $12.65
Tooth Fairy
3.3% $11.12
Deathgaze
30.0% $10.67
Vogue
3.3% $10.20
Entombed
3.3% $7.00
Max Win
$63.86 (+169.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$27.10 (+14.5%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+101.8%
Cost
$23.67
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $23.67
Ask Price EV $27.10 (+14.5%)
Bid Price EV $24.68 (+4.3%)
Ask Profit $3.43 (+14.5%)
Bid Profit $1.01 (+4.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $2.41 (+10.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$3.43
Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.01
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $63.86 (+169.8%)
Worst Case $7.00 (-70.4%)
Volatility +101.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 70.0%
Avg Win +$40.19
Avg Loss -$12.33
Bottom 5% Outcome $10.20 (-56.9%)
Std Dev $24.09
Avg Norm Float 0.3794
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 12m
Oldest Output Price 141h 21m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Galil AR | Connexion
—
Field-Tested
$1.24 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Battle-Scarred
$2.08 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Battle-Scarred
$2.09 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Battle-Scarred
$2.15 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Well-Worn
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Well-Worn
$2.31 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Well-Worn
$2.33 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Well-Worn
$2.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Field-Tested
$3.19 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Field-Tested
$3.64 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 42M 02S //TOTAL COST $23.67 //ASK PRICE EV $27.10 //BID PRICE EV $24.68 //ASK PROFIT $3.43 (+14.5%) //BID PROFIT $1.01 (+4.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $63.86 //VOLATILITY +101.8% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$63.86
+$40.19
+169.8%
$60.32
+$36.65
+154.8%
$3.54
5.5%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$12.65
-$11.02
-46.6%
$9.57
-$14.10
-59.6%
$3.08
24.4%
—
NUKE
3.3%
$11.12
-$12.55
-53.0%
$9.82
-$13.85
-58.5%
$1.30
11.7%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$10.67
-$13.00
-54.9%
$9.52
-$14.15
-59.8%
$1.15
10.7%
—
NUKE
3.3%
$10.20
-$13.47
-56.9%
$9.45
-$14.22
-60.1%
$0.75
7.3%
—
NUKE
3.3%
$7.00
-$16.67
-70.4%
$6.53
-$17.14
-72.4%
$0.47
6.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.37938,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
"realistic_value": 63.8595,
"optimistic_value": 63.52,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
"conservative_value": 60.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:44.600521Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.37938,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
"realistic_value": 12.650500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 12.57,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
"conservative_value": 9.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:11:01.279472Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.37938,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
"realistic_value": 10.6655,
"optimistic_value": 10.06,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
"conservative_value": 9.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:59.565944Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.284535,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6e390882e9a0",
"realistic_value": 10.196,
"optimistic_value": 10.14,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Vogue",
"conservative_value": 9.45,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:35:12.284900Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e390882e9a0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.2769474,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1e9229953491",
"realistic_value": 11.1155,
"optimistic_value": 11,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Tooth Fairy",
"conservative_value": 9.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:35:51.460417Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1e9229953491.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.18969,
"output_skin_id": "skin-daae504f859c",
"realistic_value": 6.998,
"optimistic_value": 6.9,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Entombed",
"conservative_value": 6.53,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Entombed (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:38:51.272248Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-daae504f859c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_877489225d3b79f5be2c9e93",
"input_rarity": "Restricted",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.24,
"skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"listing_id": "619949307112268971",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Connexion (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:37.362622Z"
},
{
"price": 2.08,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "507361289452694821",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:49:05.348438Z"
},
{
"price": 2.09,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "514116688949678190",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:49:05.348438Z"
},
{
"price": 2.15,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "490472738292168531",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:49:05.348438Z"
},
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "525375635593980187",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:57.275700Z"
},
{
"price": 2.31,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "505109489448722396",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:57.275700Z"
},
{
"price": 2.33,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "507361237008630373",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:57.275700Z"
},
{
"price": 2.34,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "492724538182385829",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:57.275700Z"
},
{
"price": 3.19,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "493850490550002916",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:57.565913Z"
},
{
"price": 3.64,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "498354037510570279",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:57.565913Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Classified",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-26:1+collection-set-community-37:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear ST | Crane Flight 30.0% $126.41 Kintsugi 30.0% $22.62 Deathgaze 30.0% $21.23 Tooth Fairy 3.3% $19.65 Vogue 3.3% $16.48 Entombed 3.3% $9.37 | $126.41 +173.7% | $52.59 +13.9% | 30.0% | +104.8% | $46.19 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 23.3% $290.04 Kintsugi 23.3% $65.51 Deathgaze 23.3% $61.47 Tooth Fairy 10.0% $39.26 Vogue 10.0% $36.58 Entombed 10.0% $15.93 | $290.04 +263.6% | $106.48 +33.5% | 23.3% | +128.4% | $79.77 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 20.0% $290.04 Kintsugi 20.0% $65.51 Deathgaze 20.0% $61.47 Tooth Fairy 13.3% $39.26 Vogue 13.3% $36.58 Entombed 13.3% $15.93 | $290.04 +282.8% | $95.64 +26.2% | 20.0% | +130.0% | $75.77 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 16.7% $63.86 Kintsugi 16.7% $12.65 Deathgaze 16.7% $11.91 Tooth Fairy 16.7% $11.12 Vogue 16.7% $10.20 Entombed 16.7% $7.00 | $63.86 +301.6% | $19.46 +22.4% | 16.7% | +125.4% | $15.90 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 13.3% $63.86 Kintsugi 13.3% $12.65 Deathgaze 13.3% $11.91 Tooth Fairy 20.0% $11.12 Vogue 20.0% $10.20 Entombed 20.0% $7.00 | $63.86 +340.1% | $17.45 +20.3% | 13.3% | +126.1% | $14.51 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 10.0% $63.86 Kintsugi 10.0% $12.65 Tooth Fairy 23.3% $11.12 Deathgaze 10.0% $10.67 Vogue 23.3% $10.20 Entombed 23.3% $7.00 | $63.86 +386.7% | $15.32 +16.8% | 10.0% | +124.1% | $13.12 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×8+The Dead Hand Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 6.7% $63.86 Kintsugi 6.7% $12.65 Deathgaze 6.7% $11.91 Tooth Fairy 26.7% $11.12 Vogue 26.7% $10.20 Entombed 26.7% $7.00 | $63.86 +437.5% | $13.44 +13.2% | 20.0% | +114.5% | $11.88 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×9+The Dead Hand Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 3.3% $63.86 Kintsugi 3.3% $12.65 Tooth Fairy 30.0% $11.12 Deathgaze 3.3% $10.67 Vogue 30.0% $10.20 Entombed 30.0% $7.00 | $63.86 +488.6% | $11.40 +5.1% | 36.7% | +91.3% | $10.85 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum  10.0% $51.27 Firebreathing  10.0% $31.66 Amberline 10.0% $18.87 Galigator  10.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $13.79 Brother  10.0% $11.85 | $51.27 +297.8% | $17.02 +32.1% | 50.0% | +92.9% | $12.89 | — |