The Revolution Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Re.built
1x $0.12
Fragments
1x $0.13
Rebel
1x $0.14
Late Night Transit
3x $0.48
Green Line
2x $0.59
Run Run Run
1x $0.71
↓
Possible Outputs
Derailment
23.3% $7.13
Charged Up
23.3% $5.48
Whiteout
23.3% $5.17
Emphorosaur-S
6.0% $0.75
Umbral Rabbit
6.0% $0.74
Sakkaku
6.0% $0.66
Max Win
$7.13 (+58.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.35 (-3.5%)
Win %
70.0%
Volatility
+55.7%
Cost
$4.51
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.51
Ask Price EV $4.35 (-3.5%)
Bid Price EV $4.00 (-11.2%)
Ask Profit $-0.16 (-3.5%)
Bid Profit $-0.51 (-11.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.35 (+7.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.16
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.51
Risk
Win Probability 70.0%
Loss Probability 30.0%
Best Case $7.13 (+58.1%)
Worst Case $0.62 (-86.3%)
Volatility +55.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$1.42
Avg Loss -$3.83
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.62 (-86.3%)
Std Dev $2.51
Avg Norm Float 0.3807
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 127h 37m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Speculative Upside · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P250 | Re.built
—
Field-Tested
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Rebel
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Well-Worn
$0.59 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Well-Worn
$0.60 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Run Run Run
—
Field-Tested
$0.71 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | 2A2F
—
Field-Tested
$0.73 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 46M 35S //TOTAL COST $4.51 //ASK PRICE EV $4.35 //BID PRICE EV $4.00 //ASK PROFIT $-0.16 (-3.5%) //BID PROFIT $-0.51 (-11.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 70.0% //BEST CASE $7.13 //VOLATILITY +55.7% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
23.3%
$7.13
+$2.62
+58.1%
$6.40
+$1.89
+41.9%
$0.73
10.2%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
23.3%
$5.48
+$0.97
+21.5%
$4.88
+$0.37
+8.2%
$0.60
11.0%
—
SMALL WIN
23.3%
$5.17
+$0.66
+14.6%
$5.08
+$0.57
+12.6%
$0.09
1.7%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.75
-$3.76
-83.4%
$0.70
-$3.81
-84.5%
$0.05
6.4%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.74
-$3.77
-83.6%
$0.69
-$3.82
-84.7%
$0.05
6.8%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.66
-$3.85
-85.4%
$0.57
-$3.94
-87.4%
$0.09
13.6%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.62
-$3.89
-86.3%
$0.61
-$3.90
-86.5%
$0.01
1.6%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$0.62
-$3.89
-86.3%
$0.55
-$3.96
-87.8%
$0.07
10.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-32|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.26650399999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
"realistic_value": 7.1295,
"optimistic_value": 7.07,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
"conservative_value": 6.4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:40:25.278030Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.4178768,
"output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
"realistic_value": 5.1675,
"optimistic_value": 5.08,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
"conservative_value": 5.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:29:59.237187Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.38072,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
"realistic_value": 5.481,
"optimistic_value": 5.46,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
"conservative_value": 4.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T07:43:53.395739Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.28554,
"output_skin_id": "skin-99526dbb85e6",
"realistic_value": 0.7404999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T03:55:11.491583Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-99526dbb85e6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.304576,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e4cd5a266934",
"realistic_value": 0.7475,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S",
"conservative_value": 0.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T18:33:49.520496Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e4cd5a266934.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.4308176,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7815c7fae965",
"realistic_value": 0.66,
"optimistic_value": 0.66,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku",
"conservative_value": 0.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:36:56.763218Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7815c7fae965.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.228432,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2e0afbc14204",
"realistic_value": 0.62,
"optimistic_value": 0.62,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Neoqueen",
"conservative_value": 0.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Neoqueen (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:25:44.951152Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2e0afbc14204.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.38072,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f1184959b60b",
"realistic_value": 0.6174999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.6,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon",
"conservative_value": 0.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:13:39.627539Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1184959b60b.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_83826b7e2ac667bccc0ffab6",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-db200bb3a1ef",
"listing_id": "490472843632858359",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Re.built (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Re.built",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db200bb3a1ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:18:42.868609Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "505109437007392004",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:18:48.859544Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-e5141cf036fa",
"listing_id": "496101493273506035",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Rebel (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Rebel",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5141cf036fa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:59.667892Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "500605942755567179",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:31:25.545727Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "523123888073168722",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:31:25.545727Z"
},
{
"price": 0.51,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "510739041953634622",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:31:25.545727Z"
},
{
"price": 0.59,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "497228243055307133",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:08.844360Z"
},
{
"price": 0.6,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "527627540537740676",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:08.844360Z"
},
{
"price": 0.71,
"skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
"listing_id": "492724590627276585",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:28:58.751845Z"
},
{
"price": 0.73,
"skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"listing_id": "517494441497798638",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Field-Tested)",
"name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:29:05.254904Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-32:3+collection-set-train-2025:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 23.3% $64.86 Derailment 23.3% $42.56 Charged Up 23.3% $22.67 Neoqueen 6.0% $3.17 Banana Cannon 6.0% $1.61 Emphorosaur-S 6.0% $1.52 | $64.86 +152.9% | $30.90 +20.4% | 46.7% | +84.2% | $25.65 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 23.3% $9.67 Charged Up 23.3% $7.45 Derailment 23.3% $7.13 Emphorosaur-S 6.0% $0.75 Umbral Rabbit 6.0% $0.74 Banana Cannon 6.0% $0.69 | $9.67 +97.8% | $5.87 +20.0% | 70.0% | +61.7% | $4.89 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 23.3% $64.86 Charged Up 23.3% $63.69 Derailment 23.3% $42.56 Banana Cannon 6.0% $9.06 Emphorosaur-S 6.0% $5.73 Umbral Rabbit 6.0% $4.30 | $64.86 +68.5% | $41.35 +7.4% | 70.0% | +56.1% | $38.50 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 16.7% $9.67 Charged Up 16.7% $7.45 Derailment 16.7% $7.13 Emphorosaur-S 10.0% $0.75 Umbral Rabbit 10.0% $0.74 Banana Cannon 10.0% $0.66 | $9.67 +178.8% | $4.39 +26.4% | 50.0% | +97.8% | $3.47 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 20.0% $9.68 Charged Up 20.0% $7.44 Derailment 20.0% $7.13 Emphorosaur-S 8.0% $0.75 Umbral Rabbit 8.0% $0.74 Banana Cannon 8.0% $0.69 | $9.68 +135.5% | $5.13 +24.7% | 60.0% | +79.5% | $4.11 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 13.3% $9.67 Charged Up 13.3% $7.45 Derailment 13.3% $7.13 Emphorosaur-S 12.0% $0.75 Umbral Rabbit 12.0% $0.74 Banana Cannon 12.0% $0.69 | $9.67 +221.4% | $3.65 +21.2% | 40.0% | +112.5% | $3.01 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Derailment 10.0% $14.72 Whiteout 10.0% $9.68 Charged Up 10.0% $7.44 Sakkaku 14.0% $1.42 Neoqueen 14.0% $1.02 Emphorosaur-S 14.0% $0.75 | $14.72 +339.4% | $3.83 +14.2% | 30.0% | +133.0% | $3.35 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  25.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  25.0% $294.44 Wicked Sick  16.7% $34.56 Wild Child  16.7% $33.67 Duality  16.7% $25.77 | $597.10 +222.9% | $238.55 +29.0% | 50.0% | +126.1% | $184.93 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | LongDog  20.0% $663.30 Temukau  40.0% $84.00 Head Shot  40.0% $79.96 | $663.30 +322.9% | $198.24 +26.4% | 20.0% | +148.3% | $156.85 | — |