The Revolution Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Fragments
1x $0.89
Cyberforce
2x $1.53
2A2F
1x $2.69
Late Night Transit
4x $2.83
Run Run Run
1x $3.18
Green Line
1x $3.38
↓
Possible Outputs
Whiteout
23.3% $64.86
Derailment
23.3% $42.56
Charged Up
23.3% $22.67
Neoqueen
6.0% $3.17
Banana Cannon
6.0% $1.61
Emphorosaur-S
6.0% $1.52
Max Win
$64.86 (+152.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$30.90 (+20.4%)
Win %
46.7%
Volatility
+93.1%
Cost
$25.65
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $25.65
Ask Price EV $30.90 (+20.4%)
Bid Price EV $29.30 (+14.2%)
Ask Profit $5.25 (+20.4%)
Bid Profit $3.65 (+14.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.60 (+6.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$5.25
Bid Slippage Buffer +$3.65
Risk
Win Probability 46.7%
Loss Probability 53.3%
Best Case $64.86 (+152.9%)
Worst Case $1.29 (-95.0%)
Volatility +93.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$28.06
Avg Loss -$14.72
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.29 (-95.0%)
Std Dev $23.89
Avg Norm Float 0.0954
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 150h 50m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Factory New
$0.89 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Cyberforce
—
Factory New
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Cyberforce
—
Factory New
$2.18 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | 2A2F
—
Minimal Wear
$2.69 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Minimal Wear
$2.83 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Minimal Wear
$2.87 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Minimal Wear
$2.99 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Minimal Wear
$3.11 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Run Run Run
—
Minimal Wear
$3.18 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Minimal Wear
$3.38 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 46M 33S //TOTAL COST $25.65 //ASK PRICE EV $30.90 //BID PRICE EV $29.30 //ASK PROFIT $5.25 (+20.4%) //BID PROFIT $3.65 (+14.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 46.7% //BEST CASE $64.86 //VOLATILITY +93.1% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
23.3%
$64.86
+$39.21
+152.9%
$61.61
+$35.96
+140.2%
$3.25
5.0%
—
BIG WIN
23.3%
$42.56
+$16.91
+65.9%
$40.19
+$14.54
+56.7%
$2.37
5.6%
—
LOSS
23.3%
$22.67
-$2.98
-11.6%
$21.50
-$4.15
-16.2%
$1.17
5.1%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$3.17
-$22.48
-87.6%
$3.16
-$22.49
-87.7%
$0.01
0.3%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.61
-$24.04
-93.7%
$1.58
-$24.07
-93.8%
$0.03
2.1%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.52
-$24.13
-94.1%
$1.44
-$24.21
-94.4%
$0.08
5.5%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.42
-$24.23
-94.5%
$1.41
-$24.24
-94.5%
$0.01
0.7%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.29
-$24.36
-95.0%
$1.19
-$24.46
-95.4%
$0.10
7.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-32|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.06681499999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
"realistic_value": 42.5615,
"optimistic_value": 42.32,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
"conservative_value": 40.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:17:58.746071Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.149723,
"output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
"realistic_value": 64.8635,
"optimistic_value": 64.79,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
"conservative_value": 61.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:42:45.497220Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.09545,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
"realistic_value": 22.666,
"optimistic_value": 22.61,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
"conservative_value": 21.5,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:18:04.523291Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.0715875,
"output_skin_id": "skin-99526dbb85e6",
"realistic_value": 1.286,
"optimistic_value": 1.23,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit",
"conservative_value": 1.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:59.503087Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-99526dbb85e6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.07636,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e4cd5a266934",
"realistic_value": 1.524,
"optimistic_value": 1.51,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S",
"conservative_value": 1.44,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:32:11.855217Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e4cd5a266934.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.265361,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7815c7fae965",
"realistic_value": 1.42,
"optimistic_value": 1.42,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku",
"conservative_value": 1.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:18:59.300460Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7815c7fae965.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.057269999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2e0afbc14204",
"realistic_value": 3.17,
"optimistic_value": 3.17,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Neoqueen",
"conservative_value": 3.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Neoqueen (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:27:03.018237Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2e0afbc14204.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.09545,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f1184959b60b",
"realistic_value": 1.6135000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 1.61,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon",
"conservative_value": 1.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T10:05:40.697941Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1184959b60b.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_83826b7e2ac667bccc0ffab6",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.89,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "511864941881795685",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments (Factory New)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:21:00.564674Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-79472cd37595",
"listing_id": "643593816523798693",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Cyberforce (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Cyberforce",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79472cd37595.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:20:51.556382Z"
},
{
"price": 2.18,
"skin_id": "skin-79472cd37595",
"listing_id": "521997988016396742",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Cyberforce (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Cyberforce",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79472cd37595.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:20:51.556382Z"
},
{
"price": 2.69,
"skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"listing_id": "523123940968972186",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:33.850694Z"
},
{
"price": 2.83,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "519746241188631932",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:20:46.655004Z"
},
{
"price": 2.87,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "514116741796799430",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:20:46.655004Z"
},
{
"price": 2.99,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "514116688950627510",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:20:46.655004Z"
},
{
"price": 3.11,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "500605942755577727",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:20:46.655004Z"
},
{
"price": 3.18,
"skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
"listing_id": "527627540537458508",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:18:16.454491Z"
},
{
"price": 3.38,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "659356415310663082",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:28:37.971627Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-32:3+collection-set-train-2025:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 23.3% $9.67 Charged Up 23.3% $7.45 Derailment 23.3% $7.13 Emphorosaur-S 6.0% $0.75 Umbral Rabbit 6.0% $0.74 Banana Cannon 6.0% $0.69 | $9.67 +97.8% | $5.87 +20.0% | 70.0% | +61.7% | $4.89 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 23.3% $64.86 Charged Up 23.3% $63.69 Derailment 23.3% $42.56 Banana Cannon 6.0% $9.06 Emphorosaur-S 6.0% $5.73 Umbral Rabbit 6.0% $4.30 | $64.86 +68.5% | $41.35 +7.4% | 70.0% | +56.1% | $38.50 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 16.7% $9.67 Charged Up 16.7% $7.45 Derailment 16.7% $7.13 Emphorosaur-S 10.0% $0.75 Umbral Rabbit 10.0% $0.74 Banana Cannon 10.0% $0.66 | $9.67 +178.8% | $4.39 +26.4% | 50.0% | +97.8% | $3.47 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 20.0% $9.68 Charged Up 20.0% $7.44 Derailment 20.0% $7.13 Emphorosaur-S 8.0% $0.75 Umbral Rabbit 8.0% $0.74 Banana Cannon 8.0% $0.69 | $9.68 +135.5% | $5.13 +24.7% | 60.0% | +79.5% | $4.11 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 13.3% $9.67 Charged Up 13.3% $7.45 Derailment 13.3% $7.13 Emphorosaur-S 12.0% $0.75 Umbral Rabbit 12.0% $0.74 Banana Cannon 12.0% $0.69 | $9.67 +221.4% | $3.65 +21.2% | 40.0% | +112.5% | $3.01 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Derailment 10.0% $14.72 Whiteout 10.0% $9.68 Charged Up 10.0% $7.44 Sakkaku 14.0% $1.42 Neoqueen 14.0% $1.02 Emphorosaur-S 14.0% $0.75 | $14.72 +339.4% | $3.83 +14.2% | 30.0% | +133.0% | $3.35 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  25.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  25.0% $294.44 Wicked Sick  16.7% $34.56 Wild Child  16.7% $33.67 Duality  16.7% $25.77 | $597.10 +222.9% | $238.55 +29.0% | 50.0% | +126.1% | $184.93 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | LongDog  20.0% $663.30 Temukau  40.0% $84.00 Head Shot  40.0% $79.96 | $663.30 +322.9% | $198.24 +26.4% | 20.0% | +148.3% | $156.85 | — |