The Achroma Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items

Battle-Scarred +26.6%Factory New -5.5%Field-Tested +24.1%Minimal Wear +23.5%Well-Worn +13.6%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn

Inputs

Creep

2x $0.34

Grip Tape

1x $0.42

Yeti Camo

1x $0.26

Cobalt Paisley

2x $0.31

Reef Grief

3x $0.36

Royal Baroque

1x $0.39

↓

Possible Outputs

Midnight Laminate

35.0% $6.93

Breakthrough

15.0% $5.61

Trace Lock

15.0% $2.31

Royal Guard

35.0% $1.22

Max Win

$6.93 (+94.7%)

EV (ROI %)

$4.04 (+13.6%)

Win %

50.0%

Volatility

+71.7%

Cost

$3.56

Age —

Financials

ASK-ONLY EDGE

Total Cost $3.56

Ask Price EV $4.04 (+13.6%)

Bid Price EV $3.46 (-2.9%)

Ask Profit $0.48 (+13.6%)

Bid Profit $-0.10 (-2.9%)

Liquidity Gap $0.59 (+16.5%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.48

Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.10

Risk

Win Probability 50.0%

Loss Probability 50.0%

Best Case $6.93 (+94.7%)

Worst Case $1.22 (-65.6%)

Volatility +71.7%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%

Avg Win +$2.98

Avg Loss -$2.01

Bottom 5% Outcome $1.22 (-65.6%)

Std Dev $2.55

Avg Norm Float 0.4462

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 26m

Oldest Output Price 155h 11m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Safe

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

AUG | Creep

—

Field-Tested

$0.34 Float: HIDDEN

AUG | Creep

—

Field-Tested

$0.36 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Grip Tape

—

Field-Tested

$0.42 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | Yeti Camo

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.26 Float: HIDDEN

MP9 | Cobalt Paisley

—

Well-Worn

$0.31 Float: HIDDEN

MP9 | Cobalt Paisley

—

Well-Worn

$0.34 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Reef Grief

—

Field-Tested

$0.36 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Reef Grief

—

Field-Tested

$0.38 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Royal Baroque

—

Field-Tested

$0.39 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Reef Grief

—

Field-Tested

$0.40 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 51M 57S //TOTAL COST $3.56 //ASK PRICE EV $4.04 //BID PRICE EV $3.46 //ASK PROFIT $0.48 (+13.6%) //BID PROFIT $-0.10 (-2.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $6.93 //VOLATILITY +71.7% //

Possible Outputs · 4

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 3,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 7,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.35,
      "output_float": 0.3346575,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
      "realistic_value": 6.931,
      "optimistic_value": 6.84,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
      "conservative_value": 5.76,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:06:18.798970Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.35,
      "output_float": 0.26772599999999996,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
      "realistic_value": 1.2229999999999999,
      "optimistic_value": 1.16,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
      "conservative_value": 1.06,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:05:08.888672Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.15,
      "output_float": 0.3346575,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
      "realistic_value": 5.6135,
      "optimistic_value": 5.54,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
      "conservative_value": 5,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:38.278338Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.15,
      "output_float": 0.312347,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
      "realistic_value": 2.314,
      "optimistic_value": 2.23,
      "output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
      "conservative_value": 2.13,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:43.497152Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_822cb6510049c8f8dd95b95d",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.34,
      "skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
      "listing_id": "498354142900741891",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "AUG | Creep",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:53:06.385346Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.36,
      "skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
      "listing_id": "511864941882503121",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "AUG | Creep",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:53:06.385346Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.42,
      "skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
      "listing_id": "505109542380719216",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:53:22.596637Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.26,
      "skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
      "listing_id": "514116688950783354",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:48.080434Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.31,
      "skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
      "listing_id": "509613142168236027",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:59.841450Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.34,
      "skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
      "listing_id": "493850490550033732",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:59.841450Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.36,
      "skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
      "listing_id": "509613142168612335",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:53:28.248524Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.38,
      "skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
      "listing_id": "503983642533425455",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:53:28.248524Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.39,
      "skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
      "listing_id": "509613142168149267",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:51:06.538284Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.4,
      "skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
      "listing_id": "499480042828625761",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:53:28.248524Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:3+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:7"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.94 Breakthrough 15.0% $5.67 Trace Lock 15.0% $2.28 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.22	$6.94 +117.0%	$4.05 +26.6%	50.0%	+80.2%	$3.20	—
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 35.0% $18.08 Breakthrough 15.0% $12.05 Royal Guard 35.0% $5.56 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.93	$18.08 +107.3%	$10.82 +24.1%	50.0%	+66.4%	$8.72	—
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Midnight Laminate 35.0% $38.92 Breakthrough 15.0% $27.06 Trace Lock 15.0% $13.90 Royal Guard 35.0% $13.27	$38.92 +96.9%	$24.41 +23.5%	50.0%	+58.7%	$19.77	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Achroma Collection ×9+The Ascent Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 5.0% $18.08 Breakthrough 45.0% $12.05 Royal Guard 5.0% $5.56 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.94	$18.08 +168.2%	$8.83 +31.0%	50.0%	+59.9%	$6.74	—
The Achroma Collection ×8+The Ascent Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 10.0% $18.08 Breakthrough 40.0% $12.05 Royal Guard 10.0% $5.56 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.94	$18.08 +157.9%	$9.16 +30.7%	50.0%	+63.3%	$7.01	—
The Achroma Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 15.0% $18.08 Breakthrough 35.0% $12.05 Royal Guard 15.0% $5.56 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.93	$18.08 +145.6%	$9.49 +28.9%	50.0%	+65.1%	$7.36	—
The Achroma Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 20.0% $18.08 Breakthrough 30.0% $12.05 Royal Guard 20.0% $5.56 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.94	$18.08 +135.7%	$9.82 +28.1%	50.0%	+66.3%	$7.67	—
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 25.0% $18.08 Breakthrough 25.0% $12.05 Royal Guard 25.0% $5.56 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.94	$18.08 +126.5%	$10.16 +27.3%	50.0%	+67.1%	$7.98	—
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 30.0% $6.94 Breakthrough 20.0% $5.67 Trace Lock 20.0% $2.28 Royal Guard 30.0% $1.22	$6.94 +118.3%	$4.04 +27.1%	50.0%	+77.4%	$3.18	—
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 40.0% $6.94 Breakthrough 10.0% $5.67 Trace Lock 10.0% $2.28 Royal Guard 40.0% $1.23	$6.94 +111.7%	$4.06 +23.9%	50.0%	+81.3%	$3.28	—
The Achroma Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Breakthrough 5.0% $27.06 Trace Lock 5.0% $13.90 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.27	$38.92 +87.1%	$25.53 +22.8%	50.0%	+59.9%	$20.80	—