The Achroma Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Grip Tape
1x $0.80
Creep
2x $0.86
Royal Baroque
1x $0.37
Reef Grief
3x $0.40
Mint Fan
2x $1.07
Cobalt Paisley
1x $1.19
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
35.0% $18.08
Breakthrough
15.0% $12.05
Royal Guard
35.0% $5.56
Trace Lock
15.0% $4.94
Max Win
$18.08 (+104.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$10.82 (+22.6%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+65.6%
Cost
$8.83
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $8.83
Ask Price EV $10.82 (+22.6%)
Bid Price EV $9.30 (+5.3%)
Ask Profit $1.99 (+22.6%)
Bid Profit $0.47 (+5.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.52 (+17.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.99
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.47
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $18.08 (+104.7%)
Worst Case $4.94 (-44.1%)
Volatility +65.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$7.44
Avg Loss -$3.45
Bottom 5% Outcome $4.94 (-44.1%)
Std Dev $5.79
Avg Norm Float 0.1998
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 12m
Oldest Output Price 154h 18m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.80 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$0.86 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$0.92 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Field-Tested
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Field-Tested
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Minimal Wear
$0.99 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Minimal Wear
$1.00 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Minimal Wear
$1.07 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Minimal Wear
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Minimal Wear
$1.23 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01M 52S //TOTAL COST $8.83 //ASK PRICE EV $10.82 //BID PRICE EV $9.30 //ASK PROFIT $1.99 (+22.6%) //BID PROFIT $0.47 (+5.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $18.08 //VOLATILITY +65.6% //
Possible Outputs · 4
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
35.0%
$18.08
+$9.25
+104.7%
$15.21
+$6.38
+72.3%
$2.87
15.9%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
15.0%
$12.05
+$3.22
+36.5%
$10.32
+$1.49
+16.9%
$1.73
14.3%
—
LOSS
35.0%
$5.56
-$3.27
-37.0%
$5.11
-$3.72
-42.1%
$0.45
8.2%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$4.94
-$3.89
-44.1%
$4.28
-$4.55
-51.5%
$0.66
13.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.14987999999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 18.0765,
"optimistic_value": 17.94,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 15.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:04:20.243302Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.11990399999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 5.5645,
"optimistic_value": 5.54,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 5.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:17:03.830819Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.14987999999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 12.049,
"optimistic_value": 11.93,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 10.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:28.312731Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.13988799999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 4.9385,
"optimistic_value": 4.9,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 4.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:32.311458Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_822cb6510049c8f8dd95b95d",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.8,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "524249840859550539",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:42.969777Z"
},
{
"price": 0.86,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "497228243056065977",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:39.795184Z"
},
{
"price": 0.92,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "491598743581180106",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:39.795184Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "510739041955147738",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:18:34.536995Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "499480042828625761",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:21:18.196166Z"
},
{
"price": 0.99,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "502857742727467612",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:49.183546Z"
},
{
"price": 1,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "491598743581284938",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:49.183546Z"
},
{
"price": 1.07,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "501731842661928461",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:14:53.340042Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "498354142900847227",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:17:56.337995Z"
},
{
"price": 1.23,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "492724643507817453",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:14:53.340042Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:3+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.94 Breakthrough 15.0% $5.67 Trace Lock 15.0% $2.28 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.23 | $6.94 +115.0% | $4.05 +25.5% | 50.0% | +79.4% | $3.23 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $38.92 Breakthrough 15.0% $27.06 Trace Lock 15.0% $13.73 Royal Guard 35.0% $13.29 | $38.92 +98.2% | $24.39 +24.2% | 50.0% | +59.2% | $19.64 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.93 Breakthrough 15.0% $5.61 Trace Lock 15.0% $2.19 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.23 | $6.93 +92.0% | $4.03 +11.5% | 50.0% | +71.1% | $3.61 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×9+The Ascent Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 5.0% $18.08 Breakthrough 45.0% $12.05 Royal Guard 5.0% $5.56 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.94 | $18.08 +168.2% | $8.83 +31.0% | 50.0% | +59.9% | $6.74 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×8+The Ascent Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 10.0% $18.08 Breakthrough 40.0% $12.05 Royal Guard 10.0% $5.56 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.94 | $18.08 +157.9% | $9.16 +30.7% | 50.0% | +63.3% | $7.01 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 15.0% $18.08 Breakthrough 35.0% $12.05 Royal Guard 15.0% $5.56 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.93 | $18.08 +145.6% | $9.49 +28.9% | 50.0% | +65.1% | $7.36 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 20.0% $18.08 Breakthrough 30.0% $12.05 Royal Guard 20.0% $5.56 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.94 | $18.08 +135.7% | $9.82 +28.1% | 50.0% | +66.3% | $7.67 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $18.08 Breakthrough 25.0% $12.05 Royal Guard 25.0% $5.56 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.94 | $18.08 +126.5% | $10.16 +27.3% | 50.0% | +67.1% | $7.98 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $6.94 Breakthrough 20.0% $5.67 Trace Lock 20.0% $2.28 Royal Guard 30.0% $1.22 | $6.94 +118.3% | $4.04 +27.1% | 50.0% | +77.4% | $3.18 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $6.94 Breakthrough 10.0% $5.67 Trace Lock 10.0% $2.28 Royal Guard 40.0% $1.23 | $6.94 +111.7% | $4.06 +23.9% | 50.0% | +81.3% | $3.28 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Breakthrough 5.0% $27.06 Trace Lock 5.0% $13.90 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.27 | $38.92 +87.1% | $25.53 +22.8% | 50.0% | +59.9% | $20.80 | — |