The Achroma Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Aeolian Light
1x $1.93
Grip Tape
1x $2.35
The Daily Deagle
1x $3.00
Royal Baroque
2x $1.50
Reef Grief
5x $2.03
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
35.0% $38.92
Breakthrough
15.0% $27.06
Trace Lock
15.0% $13.73
Royal Guard
35.0% $13.29
Max Win
$38.92 (+51.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$24.39 (-5.0%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+45.3%
Cost
$25.68
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $25.68
Ask Price EV $24.39 (-5.0%)
Bid Price EV $22.56 (-12.1%)
Ask Profit $-1.29 (-5.0%)
Bid Profit $-3.12 (-12.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.83 (+7.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.29
Bid Slippage Buffer -$3.12
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $38.92 (+51.6%)
Worst Case $13.29 (-48.3%)
Volatility +45.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$9.68
Avg Loss -$12.26
Bottom 5% Outcome $13.29 (-48.3%)
Std Dev $11.63
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 12m
Oldest Output Price 107h 47m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Factory New
$1.93 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Factory New
$2.35 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Factory New
$3.00 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.50 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.03 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.04 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.19 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.21 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$3.71 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Factory New
$4.72 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01M 54S //TOTAL COST $25.68 //ASK PRICE EV $24.39 //BID PRICE EV $22.56 //ASK PROFIT $-1.29 (-5.0%) //BID PROFIT $-3.12 (-12.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $38.92 //VOLATILITY +45.3% //
Possible Outputs · 4
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
35.0%
$38.92
+$13.24
+51.6%
$34.38
+$8.70
+33.9%
$4.54
11.7%
—
SMALL WIN
15.0%
$27.06
+$1.38
+5.4%
$26.47
+$0.79
+3.1%
$0.59
2.2%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$13.73
-$11.95
-46.5%
$13.20
-$12.48
-48.6%
$0.53
3.9%
—
NUKE
35.0%
$13.29
-$12.39
-48.3%
$13.08
-$12.60
-49.1%
$0.21
1.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.05244750000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 38.922000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 38.81,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 34.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T03:35:43.246321Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.041958,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 13.287500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 13.13,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 13.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:43.421607Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.05244750000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 27.057000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 27.05,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 26.47,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:17.581071Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.048951,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 13.73,
"optimistic_value": 13.66,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 13.2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:30.522640Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_822cb6510049c8f8dd95b95d",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.93,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "500605942756212155",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:38.822266Z"
},
{
"price": 2.35,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "518620341243286300",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:34.197419Z"
},
{
"price": 3,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "506235389469302484",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:21:06.697131Z"
},
{
"price": 1.5,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "527627540538588980",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:14:17.977207Z"
},
{
"price": 2.03,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "515242641502628053",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:33.911807Z"
},
{
"price": 2.04,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "526501640650962185",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:33.911807Z"
},
{
"price": 2.19,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "516368541588522710",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:33.911807Z"
},
{
"price": 2.21,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "521998040963448510",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:33.911807Z"
},
{
"price": 3.71,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "634586617400715303",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:33.911807Z"
},
{
"price": 4.72,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "506234592363569076",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:43.151742Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:3+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.94 Breakthrough 15.0% $5.67 Trace Lock 15.0% $2.28 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.23 | $6.94 +115.0% | $4.05 +25.5% | 50.0% | +79.4% | $3.23 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $38.92 Breakthrough 15.0% $27.06 Trace Lock 15.0% $13.73 Royal Guard 35.0% $13.29 | $38.92 +98.2% | $24.39 +24.2% | 50.0% | +59.2% | $19.64 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $18.08 Breakthrough 15.0% $12.05 Royal Guard 35.0% $5.56 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.94 | $18.08 +104.7% | $10.82 +22.6% | 50.0% | +65.6% | $8.83 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.93 Breakthrough 15.0% $5.61 Trace Lock 15.0% $2.19 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.23 | $6.93 +92.0% | $4.03 +11.5% | 50.0% | +71.1% | $3.61 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×9+The Ascent Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 5.0% $18.08 Breakthrough 45.0% $12.05 Royal Guard 5.0% $5.56 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.94 | $18.08 +168.2% | $8.83 +31.0% | 50.0% | +59.9% | $6.74 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×8+The Ascent Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 10.0% $18.08 Breakthrough 40.0% $12.05 Royal Guard 10.0% $5.56 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.94 | $18.08 +157.9% | $9.16 +30.7% | 50.0% | +63.3% | $7.01 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 15.0% $18.08 Breakthrough 35.0% $12.05 Royal Guard 15.0% $5.56 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.93 | $18.08 +145.6% | $9.49 +28.9% | 50.0% | +65.1% | $7.36 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 20.0% $18.08 Breakthrough 30.0% $12.05 Royal Guard 20.0% $5.56 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.94 | $18.08 +135.7% | $9.82 +28.1% | 50.0% | +66.3% | $7.67 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $18.08 Breakthrough 25.0% $12.05 Royal Guard 25.0% $5.56 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.94 | $18.08 +126.5% | $10.16 +27.3% | 50.0% | +67.1% | $7.98 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $6.94 Breakthrough 20.0% $5.67 Trace Lock 20.0% $2.28 Royal Guard 30.0% $1.22 | $6.94 +118.3% | $4.04 +27.1% | 50.0% | +77.4% | $3.18 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $6.94 Breakthrough 10.0% $5.67 Trace Lock 10.0% $2.28 Royal Guard 40.0% $1.23 | $6.94 +111.7% | $4.06 +23.9% | 50.0% | +81.3% | $3.28 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Breakthrough 5.0% $27.06 Trace Lock 5.0% $13.90 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.27 | $38.92 +87.1% | $25.53 +22.8% | 50.0% | +59.9% | $20.80 | — |