The Achroma Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items

Battle-Scarred +25.5%Factory New -5.0%Field-Tested +22.6%Minimal Wear +24.2%Well-Worn +11.5%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred

Inputs

Aeolian Light

1x $0.27

Creep

1x $0.28

The Daily Deagle

1x $0.34

Yeti Camo

2x $0.26

Cobalt Paisley

2x $0.30

Royal Baroque

2x $0.36

↓

Possible Outputs

Midnight Laminate

35.0% $6.94

Breakthrough

15.0% $5.67

Trace Lock

15.0% $2.28

Royal Guard

35.0% $1.23

Max Win

$6.94 (+115.0%)

EV (ROI %)

$4.05 (+25.5%)

Win %

50.0%

Volatility

+79.4%

Cost

$3.23

Age —

Financials

Total Cost $3.23

Ask Price EV $4.05 (+25.5%)

Bid Price EV $3.58 (+10.7%)

Ask Profit $0.82 (+25.5%)

Bid Profit $0.35 (+10.7%)

Liquidity Gap $0.48 (+14.8%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.82

Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.35

Risk

Win Probability 50.0%

Loss Probability 50.0%

Best Case $6.94 (+115.0%)

Worst Case $1.23 (-62.0%)

Volatility +79.4%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%

Avg Win +$3.33

Avg Loss -$1.68

Bottom 5% Outcome $1.23 (-62.0%)

Std Dev $2.56

Avg Norm Float 0.5458

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 15m

Oldest Output Price 156h 20m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Tight

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

P90 | Aeolian Light

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.27 Float: HIDDEN

AUG | Creep

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.28 Float: HIDDEN

Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle

—

Field-Tested

$0.34 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | Yeti Camo

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.26 Float: HIDDEN

MP9 | Cobalt Paisley

—

Well-Worn

$0.30 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | Yeti Camo

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.31 Float: HIDDEN

MP9 | Cobalt Paisley

—

Well-Worn

$0.34 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Royal Baroque

—

Field-Tested

$0.36 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Royal Baroque

—

Field-Tested

$0.37 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Reef Grief

—

Field-Tested

$0.40 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 56M 19S //TOTAL COST $3.23 //ASK PRICE EV $4.05 //BID PRICE EV $3.58 //ASK PROFIT $0.82 (+25.5%) //BID PROFIT $0.35 (+10.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $6.94 //VOLATILITY +79.4% //

Possible Outputs · 4

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 3,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 7,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.35,
      "output_float": 0.409335,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
      "realistic_value": 6.9435,
      "optimistic_value": 6.8,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
      "conservative_value": 6.03,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T03:56:54.599031Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.35,
      "output_float": 0.32746800000000004,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
      "realistic_value": 1.2285,
      "optimistic_value": 1.19,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
      "conservative_value": 1.06,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:56:21.496471Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.15,
      "output_float": 0.409335,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
      "realistic_value": 5.67,
      "optimistic_value": 5.67,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
      "conservative_value": 5.07,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:14.634029Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.15,
      "output_float": 0.382046,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
      "realistic_value": 2.284,
      "optimistic_value": 2.27,
      "output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
      "conservative_value": 2.23,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:19.654396Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_822cb6510049c8f8dd95b95d",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.27,
      "skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
      "listing_id": "529879287550318068",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:24.320546Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.28,
      "skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
      "listing_id": "503983642533591163",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "AUG | Creep",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:26.589196Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.34,
      "skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
      "listing_id": "508487242223105030",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:53.928679Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.26,
      "skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
      "listing_id": "519746188259448260",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:02:09.200765Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.3,
      "skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
      "listing_id": "516368541589580102",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:01:51.274507Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.31,
      "skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
      "listing_id": "519746241189717476",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:02:09.200765Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.34,
      "skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
      "listing_id": "493850490550033732",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:01:51.274507Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.36,
      "skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
      "listing_id": "524249840860129383",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:08:23.476362Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.37,
      "skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
      "listing_id": "510739041955147738",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:08:23.476362Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.4,
      "skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
      "listing_id": "499480042828625761",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:56.817933Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:3+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:7"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Midnight Laminate 35.0% $38.92 Breakthrough 15.0% $27.06 Trace Lock 15.0% $13.73 Royal Guard 35.0% $13.29	$38.92 +98.2%	$24.39 +24.2%	50.0%	+59.2%	$19.64	—
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 35.0% $18.08 Breakthrough 15.0% $12.05 Royal Guard 35.0% $5.56 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.94	$18.08 +104.7%	$10.82 +22.6%	50.0%	+65.6%	$8.83	—
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn	Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.93 Breakthrough 15.0% $5.61 Trace Lock 15.0% $2.19 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.23	$6.93 +92.0%	$4.03 +11.5%	50.0%	+71.1%	$3.61	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Achroma Collection ×8+The Ascent Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 10.0% $18.08 Breakthrough 40.0% $12.05 Royal Guard 10.0% $5.56 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.94	$18.08 +153.2%	$9.16 +28.3%	50.0%	+62.2%	$7.14	—
The Achroma Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 20.0% $18.08 Breakthrough 30.0% $12.05 Royal Guard 20.0% $5.56 Trace Lock 30.0% $5.03	$18.08 +133.5%	$9.85 +27.3%	50.0%	+65.4%	$7.74	—
The Achroma Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 15.0% $18.08 Breakthrough 35.0% $12.05 Royal Guard 15.0% $5.56 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.94	$18.08 +142.0%	$9.49 +27.1%	50.0%	+64.1%	$7.47	—
The Achroma Collection ×9+The Ascent Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 5.0% $18.08 Breakthrough 45.0% $12.05 Royal Guard 5.0% $5.56 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.94	$18.08 +159.0%	$8.83 +26.5%	50.0%	+57.8%	$6.98	—
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 25.0% $18.08 Breakthrough 25.0% $12.05 Royal Guard 25.0% $5.56 Trace Lock 25.0% $5.01	$18.08 +123.4%	$10.17 +25.8%	50.0%	+66.0%	$8.09	—
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Midnight Laminate 30.0% $38.92 Breakthrough 20.0% $27.06 Trace Lock 20.0% $13.99 Royal Guard 30.0% $13.29	$38.92 +105.0%	$23.87 +25.7%	50.0%	+58.4%	$18.99	—
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 40.0% $6.94 Breakthrough 10.0% $5.67 Trace Lock 10.0% $2.28 Royal Guard 40.0% $1.11	$6.94 +115.0%	$4.02 +24.3%	50.0%	+84.1%	$3.23	—
The Achroma Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Breakthrough 5.0% $27.06 Trace Lock 5.0% $13.78 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.29	$38.92 +87.8%	$25.54 +23.2%	50.0%	+60.1%	$20.72	—