The Harlequin Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Warm Blooded
1x $0.37
Shredded
3x $0.26
Red Tide
2x $0.27
Rose Hex
3x $0.32
Blush Pour
1x $0.65
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
5.0% $7.14
Mulberry
30.0% $5.01
Glitched Paint
30.0% $2.92
Sleeping Potion
5.0% $2.56
Bleeding Edge
30.0% $2.14
Max Win
$7.14 (+71.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.51 (-15.7%)
Win %
35.0%
Volatility
+34.4%
Cost
$4.16
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.16
Ask Price EV $3.51 (-15.7%)
Bid Price EV $3.24 (-22.1%)
Ask Profit $-0.65 (-15.7%)
Bid Profit $-0.92 (-22.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.26 (+6.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.65
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.92
Risk
Win Probability 35.0%
Loss Probability 65.0%
Best Case $7.14 (+71.7%)
Worst Case $2.14 (-48.5%)
Volatility +34.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 65.0%
Avg Win +$1.15
Avg Loss -$1.63
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.14 (-48.5%)
Std Dev $1.43
Avg Norm Float 0.4478
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 144h 49m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Field-Tested
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Field-Tested
$0.65 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Minimal Wear
$0.77 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 23M 02S //TOTAL COST $4.16 //ASK PRICE EV $3.51 //BID PRICE EV $3.24 //ASK PROFIT $-0.65 (-15.7%) //BID PROFIT $-0.92 (-22.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 35.0% //BEST CASE $7.14 //VOLATILITY +34.4% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
5.0%
$7.14
+$2.98
+71.7%
$6.60
+$2.44
+58.7%
$0.54
7.6%
—
WIN
30.0%
$5.01
+$0.85
+20.3%
$4.66
+$0.50
+12.0%
$0.35
6.9%
—
LOSS
30.0%
$2.92
-$1.24
-29.9%
$2.76
-$1.40
-33.7%
$0.16
5.4%
—
LOSS
5.0%
$2.56
-$1.60
-38.4%
$2.25
-$1.91
-45.9%
$0.31
12.2%
—
NUKE
30.0%
$2.14
-$2.02
-48.5%
$1.91
-$2.25
-54.1%
$0.23
10.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.33588,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 5.0065,
"optimistic_value": 4.94,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 4.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:33.975888Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.3000528,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 2.9175,
"optimistic_value": 2.9,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 2.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:11:28.288599Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.268704,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 2.1420000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.1,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 1.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:59:12.626131Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.313488,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 7.1415,
"optimistic_value": 6.9,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 6.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:06:01.008900Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.313488,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 2.5639999999999996,
"optimistic_value": 2.55,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:56:09.467393Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_7bba484e976d4c56732d260a",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "512990789045394995",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:16:20.549235Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "496102290328488011",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:11:16.845243Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "507361289453734501",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:01:29.268655Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "498353293087104787",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:01:29.268655Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "503983589619767503",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:57:05.265099Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "516368488725524570",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:57:05.265099Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "525375688036290175",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:57:05.265099Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "520872088105717584",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:39.391496Z"
},
{
"price": 0.65,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "526501535293744649",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:17:24.024788Z"
},
{
"price": 0.77,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "501731789730685373",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:16:51.295081Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:1+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Harlequin Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Exothermic 5.0% $13.94 Sleeping Potion 5.0% $11.82 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.17 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.91 | $15.94 +104.1% | $10.00 +28.0% | 40.0% | +55.7% | $7.81 | — |
The Harlequin Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 30.0% $33.42 Exothermic 5.0% $26.56 Sleeping Potion 5.0% $24.63 Glitched Paint 30.0% $17.13 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $16.98 | $33.42 +60.4% | $22.82 +9.5% | 40.0% | +35.4% | $20.84 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Harlequin Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 25.0% $9.85 Mulberry 16.7% $4.72 Glitched Paint 16.7% $2.94 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $2.17 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $2.09 | $9.85 +168.4% | $4.63 +26.2% | 41.7% | +85.6% | $3.67 | — |
The Harlequin Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Exothermic 10.0% $13.58 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Glitched Paint 26.7% $6.72 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.91 | $15.94 +96.8% | $10.16 +25.4% | 46.7% | +52.8% | $8.10 | — |
The Harlequin Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Exothermic 15.0% $13.94 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $11.82 Glitched Paint 23.3% $7.17 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.91 | $15.94 +87.1% | $10.64 +24.8% | 53.3% | +47.6% | $8.52 | — |
The Harlequin Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 20.0% $33.42 Exothermic 20.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $24.63 Glitched Paint 20.0% $17.09 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $16.98 | $33.42 +73.1% | $23.78 +23.1% | 60.0% | +32.2% | $19.31 | — |