The Harlequin Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Earth Mandala
1x $1.18
Rose Hex
4x $0.34
Shredded
2x $0.47
Blush Pour
3x $0.65
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
30.0% $15.94
Exothermic
5.0% $13.94
Sleeping Potion
5.0% $11.82
Glitched Paint
30.0% $7.17
Bleeding Edge
30.0% $5.91
Max Win
$15.94 (+104.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$10.00 (+28.0%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+55.7%
Cost
$7.81
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $7.81
Ask Price EV $10.00 (+28.0%)
Bid Price EV $8.85 (+13.4%)
Ask Profit $2.19 (+28.0%)
Bid Profit $1.04 (+13.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.14 (+14.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$2.19
Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.04
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $15.94 (+104.1%)
Worst Case $5.91 (-24.3%)
Volatility +55.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 0.00%
Avg Win +$7.37
Avg Loss -$1.27
Bottom 5% Outcome $5.91 (-24.3%)
Std Dev $4.35
Avg Norm Float 0.1996
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 145h
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Minimal Wear
$1.18 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Field-Tested
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Field-Tested
$0.65 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Minimal Wear
$0.71 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Minimal Wear
$0.77 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Minimal Wear
$0.82 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Minimal Wear
$0.94 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$0.95 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$0.98 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 23M 00S //TOTAL COST $7.81 //ASK PRICE EV $10.00 //BID PRICE EV $8.85 //ASK PROFIT $2.19 (+28.0%) //BID PROFIT $1.04 (+13.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $15.94 //VOLATILITY +55.7% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$15.94
+$8.13
+104.1%
$14.54
+$6.73
+86.2%
$1.40
8.8%
—
BIG WIN
5.0%
$13.94
+$6.13
+78.4%
$12.05
+$4.24
+54.3%
$1.89
13.5%
—
BIG WIN
5.0%
$11.82
+$4.01
+51.4%
$9.69
+$1.88
+24.1%
$2.13
18.0%
—
LOSS
30.0%
$7.17
-$0.64
-8.2%
$6.21
-$1.60
-20.5%
$0.96
13.4%
—
LOSS
30.0%
$5.91
-$1.90
-24.3%
$5.14
-$2.67
-34.2%
$0.77
13.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.1497375,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 15.9415,
"optimistic_value": 15.91,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 14.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:19:07.329445Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.1337655,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 7.171,
"optimistic_value": 7.15,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 6.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:13:59.157790Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.11979,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 5.914000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 5.9,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 5.14,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:01:28.631426Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.139755,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 13.936499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 13.87,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 12.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:16:23.295309Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.139755,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 11.8215,
"optimistic_value": 11.79,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 9.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T22:50:43.641579Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_7bba484e976d4c56732d260a",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.18,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "502857689862550924",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:32.106711Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "516368488725524570",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:57:05.265099Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "520872088105717584",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:39.391496Z"
},
{
"price": 0.65,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "526501535293744649",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:17:24.024788Z"
},
{
"price": 0.71,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "516368488726128758",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:17:08.943068Z"
},
{
"price": 0.77,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "501731789730685373",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:16:51.295081Z"
},
{
"price": 0.82,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "527627435179438172",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:17:08.943068Z"
},
{
"price": 0.94,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "517494388633767838",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:17:08.943068Z"
},
{
"price": 0.95,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "519746188258766852",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:06:35.691458Z"
},
{
"price": 0.98,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "510738989040706534",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:06:35.691458Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:1+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Harlequin Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 30.0% $33.42 Exothermic 5.0% $26.56 Sleeping Potion 5.0% $24.63 Glitched Paint 30.0% $17.13 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $16.98 | $33.42 +60.4% | $22.82 +9.5% | 40.0% | +35.4% | $20.84 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Harlequin Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 25.0% $9.85 Mulberry 16.7% $4.72 Glitched Paint 16.7% $2.94 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $2.17 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $2.09 | $9.85 +168.4% | $4.63 +26.2% | 41.7% | +85.6% | $3.67 | — |
The Harlequin Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Exothermic 10.0% $13.58 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Glitched Paint 26.7% $6.72 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.91 | $15.94 +96.8% | $10.16 +25.4% | 46.7% | +52.8% | $8.10 | — |
The Harlequin Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Exothermic 15.0% $13.94 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $11.82 Glitched Paint 23.3% $7.17 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.91 | $15.94 +87.1% | $10.64 +24.8% | 53.3% | +47.6% | $8.52 | — |
The Harlequin Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 20.0% $33.42 Exothermic 20.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $24.63 Glitched Paint 20.0% $17.09 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $16.98 | $33.42 +73.1% | $23.78 +23.1% | 60.0% | +32.2% | $19.31 | — |