The Harlequin Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Sky Mandala
1x $1.58
Blush Pour
4x $1.53
Shredded
3x $1.78
Rose Hex
1x $1.86
Red Tide
1x $4.32
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
30.0% $33.42
Exothermic
5.0% $26.56
Sleeping Potion
5.0% $24.63
Glitched Paint
30.0% $17.13
Bleeding Edge
30.0% $16.98
Max Win
$33.42 (+18.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$22.82 (-19.3%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+26.1%
Cost
$28.29
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $28.29
Ask Price EV $22.82 (-19.3%)
Bid Price EV $21.81 (-22.9%)
Ask Profit $-5.47 (-19.3%)
Bid Profit $-6.48 (-22.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.01 (+3.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$5.47
Bid Slippage Buffer -$6.48
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $33.42 (+18.1%)
Worst Case $16.98 (-40.0%)
Volatility +26.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%
Avg Win +$5.13
Avg Loss -$10.02
Bottom 5% Outcome $16.98 (-40.0%)
Std Dev $7.38
Avg Norm Float 0.0690
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 146h 4m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Minimal Wear
$1.58 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.67 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$1.78 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
$1.86 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$2.18 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$3.34 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Factory New
$4.32 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Factory New
$4.95 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Factory New
$5.08 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 23M 00S //TOTAL COST $28.29 //ASK PRICE EV $22.82 //BID PRICE EV $21.81 //ASK PROFIT $-5.47 (-19.3%) //BID PROFIT $-6.48 (-22.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $33.42 //VOLATILITY +26.1% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
30.0%
$33.42
+$5.13
+18.1%
$31.48
+$3.19
+11.3%
$1.94
5.8%
—
LOSS
5.0%
$26.56
-$1.73
-6.1%
$26.03
-$2.26
-8.0%
$0.52
2.0%
—
LOSS
5.0%
$24.63
-$3.66
-12.9%
$22.28
-$6.01
-21.2%
$2.35
9.5%
—
LOSS
30.0%
$17.13
-$11.16
-39.4%
$16.69
-$11.60
-41.0%
$0.44
2.6%
—
LOSS
30.0%
$16.98
-$11.31
-40.0%
$16.48
-$11.81
-41.7%
$0.50
2.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.05178000000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 33.418,
"optimistic_value": 33.25,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 31.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:15:33.431446Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.04625680000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 17.133499999999998,
"optimistic_value": 16.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 16.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:01:28.268328Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.041424,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 16.977,
"optimistic_value": 16.83,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 16.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T12:21:33.371188Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.048328,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 26.555,
"optimistic_value": 26.45,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 26.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:55:59.580467Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.048328,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 24.63,
"optimistic_value": 24.56,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 22.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_7bba484e976d4c56732d260a",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.58,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "528753387758077101",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:16:34.355829Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "502857524064946924",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:06:35.691458Z"
},
{
"price": 1.67,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "505109323870506140",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:06:35.691458Z"
},
{
"price": 1.78,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "490472790737593455",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:13:54.014661Z"
},
{
"price": 1.86,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "500605889841403967",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:59:06.932821Z"
},
{
"price": 2.18,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "490472790737776695",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:13:54.014661Z"
},
{
"price": 3.34,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "529879121829916716",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:13:54.014661Z"
},
{
"price": 4.32,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "596305411423502869",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:01:44.670978Z"
},
{
"price": 4.95,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "521997822479782266",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:04:20.485067Z"
},
{
"price": 5.08,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "502857524062682488",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:04:20.485067Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:1+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Harlequin Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Exothermic 5.0% $13.94 Sleeping Potion 5.0% $11.82 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.17 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.91 | $15.94 +104.1% | $10.00 +28.0% | 40.0% | +55.7% | $7.81 | — |
The Harlequin Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 30.0% $33.42 Exothermic 5.0% $26.56 Sleeping Potion 5.0% $24.63 Glitched Paint 30.0% $17.13 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $16.98 | $33.42 +60.4% | $22.82 +9.5% | 40.0% | +35.4% | $20.84 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Harlequin Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 25.0% $9.85 Mulberry 16.7% $4.72 Glitched Paint 16.7% $2.94 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $2.17 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $2.09 | $9.85 +168.4% | $4.63 +26.2% | 41.7% | +85.6% | $3.67 | — |
The Harlequin Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Exothermic 10.0% $13.58 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $11.82 Glitched Paint 26.7% $6.72 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.91 | $15.94 +96.8% | $10.16 +25.4% | 46.7% | +52.8% | $8.10 | — |
The Harlequin Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Exothermic 15.0% $13.94 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $11.82 Glitched Paint 23.3% $7.17 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.91 | $15.94 +87.1% | $10.64 +24.8% | 53.3% | +47.6% | $8.52 | — |
The Harlequin Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 20.0% $33.42 Exothermic 20.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $24.63 Glitched Paint 20.0% $17.09 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $16.98 | $33.42 +73.1% | $23.78 +23.1% | 60.0% | +32.2% | $19.31 | — |