The Harlequin Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Inputs
Warm Blooded
1x $0.37
Shredded
2x $0.26
Red Tide
2x $0.27
Rose Hex
4x $0.32
Blush Pour
1x $0.65
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
5.0% $6.87
Mulberry
30.0% $5.01
Glitched Paint
30.0% $2.96
Sleeping Potion
5.0% $2.47
Bleeding Edge
30.0% $2.09
Max Win
$6.87 (+67.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.48 (-15.1%)
Win %
35.0%
Volatility
+34.4%
Cost
$4.10
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.10
Ask Price EV $3.48 (-15.1%)
Bid Price EV $3.24 (-21.0%)
Ask Profit $-0.62 (-15.1%)
Bid Profit $-0.86 (-21.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.24 (+5.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.62
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.86
Risk
Win Probability 35.0%
Loss Probability 65.0%
Best Case $6.87 (+67.7%)
Worst Case $2.09 (-49.1%)
Volatility +34.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 65.0%
Avg Win +$1.17
Avg Loss -$1.58
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.09 (-49.1%)
Std Dev $1.41
Avg Norm Float 0.4657
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 143h 48m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Field-Tested
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Field-Tested
$0.65 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Minimal Wear
$0.71 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 20M 18S //TOTAL COST $4.10 //ASK PRICE EV $3.48 //BID PRICE EV $3.24 //ASK PROFIT $-0.62 (-15.1%) //BID PROFIT $-0.86 (-21.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 35.0% //BEST CASE $6.87 //VOLATILITY +34.4% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
5.0%
$6.87
+$2.77
+67.7%
$6.58
+$2.48
+60.5%
$0.29
4.3%
—
WIN
30.0%
$5.01
+$0.91
+22.1%
$4.66
+$0.56
+13.7%
$0.35
6.9%
—
LOSS
30.0%
$2.96
-$1.14
-27.9%
$2.76
-$1.34
-32.7%
$0.20
6.6%
—
LOSS
5.0%
$2.47
-$1.63
-39.9%
$2.25
-$1.85
-45.1%
$0.22
8.8%
—
NUKE
30.0%
$2.09
-$2.01
-49.1%
$1.91
-$2.19
-53.4%
$0.18
8.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.3492975,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 5.0065,
"optimistic_value": 4.94,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 4.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:33.975888Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.3120391,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 2.9555000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 2.91,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 2.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:32:52.376119Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.27943799999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 2.087,
"optimistic_value": 2.08,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 1.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:45:22.758042Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.32601099999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 6.8745,
"optimistic_value": 6.71,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 6.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:13:33.742714Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.32601099999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 2.466,
"optimistic_value": 2.41,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:42:36.302840Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_7bba484e976d4c56732d260a",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "498354089952770539",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:44.049042Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "496102290328488011",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:57:49.232674Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "507361289453734501",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:10:39.214485Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "498353293087104787",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:10:39.214485Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "503983589619767503",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:47.782895Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "516368488725524570",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:47.782895Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "525375688036290175",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:47.782895Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "520872088105717584",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:51.899713Z"
},
{
"price": 0.65,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "526501535293744649",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:09.060044Z"
},
{
"price": 0.71,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "516368488726128758",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:15.631768Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:1+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Harlequin Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Exothermic 5.0% $13.56 Sleeping Potion 5.0% $11.82 Glitched Paint 30.0% $6.58 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.91 | $15.94 +103.9% | $9.80 +25.3% | 40.0% | +57.0% | $7.82 | — |
The Harlequin Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 30.0% $33.42 Exothermic 5.0% $26.82 Sleeping Potion 5.0% $24.63 Glitched Paint 30.0% $17.13 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $16.98 | $33.42 +59.7% | $22.83 +9.1% | 40.0% | +35.3% | $20.93 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Harlequin Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 15.0% $9.85 Glitched Paint 23.3% $5.03 Mulberry 23.3% $4.72 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $2.17 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $2.09 | $9.85 +182.2% | $4.57 +30.8% | 61.7% | +73.3% | $3.49 | — |
The Harlequin Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 10.0% $9.85 Glitched Paint 26.7% $5.03 Mulberry 26.7% $4.72 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $2.17 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $2.10 | $9.85 +192.3% | $4.36 +29.5% | 63.3% | +66.4% | $3.37 | — |