The Fever Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8
Restricted → Classified FN 10 items
Contract
Restricted → Classified Factory New
Inputs
Tosai
1x $4.32
Serpent Strike
1x $6.76
Galigator
3x $3.35
Urban Sovereign
2x $4.08
Amberline
3x $4.09
↓
Possible Outputs
Crane Flight
26.7% $150.19
Searing Rage
6.7% $50.67
Shinobu
6.7% $49.36
Deathgaze
26.7% $40.59
Kintsugi
26.7% $38.82
K.O. Factory
6.7% $34.29
Max Win
$150.19 (+121.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$70.18 (+3.4%)
Win %
26.7%
Volatility
+71.3%
Cost
$67.90
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $67.90
Ask Price EV $70.18 (+3.4%)
Bid Price EV $65.05 (-4.2%)
Ask Profit $2.28 (+3.4%)
Bid Profit $-2.85 (-4.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $5.13 (+7.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$2.28
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.85
Risk
Win Probability 26.7%
Loss Probability 73.3%
Best Case $150.19 (+121.2%)
Worst Case $34.29 (-49.5%)
Volatility +71.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 73.3%
Avg Win +$82.29
Avg Loss -$26.81
Bottom 5% Outcome $34.29 (-49.5%)
Std Dev $48.41
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 154h 46m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Zeus x27 | Tosai
—
Factory New
$4.32 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike
—
Factory New
$6.76 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Galigator
—
Minimal Wear
$3.35 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Galigator
—
Minimal Wear
$3.91 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$4.08 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Minimal Wear
$4.09 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Minimal Wear
$5.00 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$10.00 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Factory New
$10.83 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Galigator
—
Factory New
$15.56 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 55M 33S //TOTAL COST $67.90 //ASK PRICE EV $70.18 //BID PRICE EV $65.05 //ASK PROFIT $2.28 (+3.4%) //BID PROFIT $-2.85 (-4.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 26.7% //BEST CASE $150.19 //VOLATILITY +71.3% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
26.7%
$150.19
+$82.29
+121.2%
$135.90
+$68.00
+100.1%
$14.29
9.5%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
6.7%
$50.67
-$17.23
-25.4%
$49.80
-$18.10
-26.7%
$0.87
1.7%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
6.7%
$49.36
-$18.54
-27.3%
$47.91
-$19.99
-29.4%
$1.45
2.9%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
26.7%
$40.59
-$27.31
-40.2%
$37.78
-$30.12
-44.4%
$2.81
6.9%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
26.7%
$38.82
-$29.08
-42.8%
$37.31
-$30.59
-45.1%
$1.51
3.9%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.7%
$34.29
-$33.61
-49.5%
$34.04
-$33.86
-49.9%
$0.25
0.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Restricted|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
"realistic_value": 150.193,
"optimistic_value": 149.22,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
"conservative_value": 135.9,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:35:42.904333Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
"realistic_value": 38.8205,
"optimistic_value": 38.67,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
"conservative_value": 37.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:01:33.794727Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
"realistic_value": 40.5885,
"optimistic_value": 39.64,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
"conservative_value": 37.78,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Deathgaze (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:33:45.319776Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4c2e3face5fd",
"realistic_value": 50.6685,
"optimistic_value": 50.49,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Searing Rage",
"conservative_value": 49.8,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Searing Rage (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:53:17.840128Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4c2e3face5fd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a7838b4ba71f",
"realistic_value": 49.3565,
"optimistic_value": 49.01,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Shinobu",
"conservative_value": 47.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Shinobu (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:15:32.269240Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a7838b4ba71f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5a6a2858b51d",
"realistic_value": 34.2855,
"optimistic_value": 34.17,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | K.O. Factory",
"conservative_value": 34.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:59:05.721361Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5a6a2858b51d.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_78fed3d345a4b06fb718bf6e",
"input_rarity": "Restricted",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 4.32,
"skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
"listing_id": "529879121830440552",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:04:39.001409Z"
},
{
"price": 6.76,
"skin_id": "skin-4515a7cdcc74",
"listing_id": "511864888985615049",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Factory New)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4515a7cdcc74.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:21:26.268507Z"
},
{
"price": 3.35,
"skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"listing_id": "490472843634044235",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:04:25.658034Z"
},
{
"price": 3.91,
"skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"listing_id": "519746241188595248",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:04:25.658034Z"
},
{
"price": 4.08,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "502857742727326204",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:52.739380Z"
},
{
"price": 4.09,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "520872141038513460",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:01:52.869026Z"
},
{
"price": 5,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "508486392213276782",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:01:52.869026Z"
},
{
"price": 10,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "502857742726813492",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:12:48.980504Z"
},
{
"price": 10.83,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "509613036860694387",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Factory New)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:07:28.053348Z"
},
{
"price": 15.56,
"skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"listing_id": "490472790738250275",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:07:28.095828Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Classified",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|normal|10|collection-set-community-35:2+collection-set-community-37:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight 26.7% $35.39 Deathgaze 26.7% $9.36 Kintsugi 26.7% $9.23 Shinobu 6.7% $7.54 Searing Rage 6.7% $7.15 K.O. Factory 6.7% $6.55 | $35.39 +170.6% | $15.81 +20.9% | 26.7% | +90.5% | $13.08 | — |
The Fever Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear | Crane Flight 26.7% $60.44 Deathgaze 26.7% $16.71 Kintsugi 26.7% $16.53 Shinobu 6.7% $13.66 Searing Rage 6.7% $11.43 K.O. Factory 6.7% $10.09 | $60.44 +147.4% | $27.32 +11.8% | 26.7% | +82.1% | $24.43 | — |
The Fever Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Well-Worn | Crane Flight 26.7% $28.87 Kintsugi 26.7% $8.18 Deathgaze 26.7% $8.03 Shinobu 6.7% $6.65 Searing Rage 6.7% $6.61 K.O. Factory 6.7% $6.02 | $28.87 +122.2% | $13.31 +2.4% | 26.7% | +72.4% | $12.99 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight 13.3% $35.39 Kintsugi 13.3% $9.23 Deathgaze 13.3% $9.14 Shinobu 20.0% $7.54 Searing Rage 20.0% $7.47 K.O. Factory 20.0% $6.93 | $35.39 +284.2% | $11.56 +25.5% | 26.7% | +101.9% | $9.21 | — |
The Fever Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight 16.7% $35.39 Deathgaze 16.7% $9.41 Kintsugi 16.7% $9.12 Shinobu 16.7% $7.54 Searing Rage 16.7% $7.42 K.O. Factory 16.7% $6.80 | $35.39 +248.3% | $12.61 +24.2% | 16.7% | +100.7% | $10.16 | — |
The Fever Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight 20.0% $35.39 Deathgaze 20.0% $9.36 Kintsugi 20.0% $9.12 Shinobu 13.3% $7.54 Searing Rage 13.3% $7.15 K.O. Factory 13.3% $6.55 | $35.39 +218.2% | $13.60 +22.3% | 20.0% | +98.4% | $11.12 | — |
The Fever Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight 10.0% $35.39 Deathgaze 10.0% $9.41 Kintsugi 10.0% $9.13 Shinobu 23.3% $7.54 Searing Rage 23.3% $7.42 K.O. Factory 23.3% $6.80 | $35.39 +310.5% | $10.47 +21.5% | 30.0% | +96.9% | $8.62 | — |
The Fever Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight 23.3% $35.39 Deathgaze 23.3% $9.36 Kintsugi 23.3% $9.12 Shinobu 10.0% $7.54 Searing Rage 10.0% $7.15 K.O. Factory 10.0% $6.55 | $35.39 +191.3% | $14.69 +20.9% | 23.3% | +94.3% | $12.15 | — |
The Fever Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight 30.0% $35.39 Deathgaze 30.0% $9.36 Kintsugi 30.0% $9.12 Shinobu 3.3% $7.54 Searing Rage 3.3% $7.15 K.O. Factory 3.3% $6.55 | $35.39 +146.1% | $16.87 +17.3% | 30.0% | +84.4% | $14.38 | — |
The Fever Collection ×8+The Dead Hand Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight 6.7% $35.39 Deathgaze 6.7% $9.21 Kintsugi 6.7% $9.13 Shinobu 26.7% $7.54 Searing Rage 26.7% $7.42 K.O. Factory 26.7% $6.70 | $35.39 +341.3% | $9.36 +16.7% | 20.0% | +87.2% | $8.02 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Electrum  18.0% $19.50 Firebreathing  18.0% $12.97 Galigator 18.0% $11.06 Amberline 18.0% $10.23 Urban Sovereign 18.0% $10.00 Rising Sun  2.0% $9.15 | $19.50 +79.4% | $12.16 +11.9% | 54.0% | +31.5% | $10.87 | — |