The Fever Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8
Restricted → Classified WW 10 items
Contract
Restricted → Classified Well-Worn
Inputs
Wave Breaker
1x $0.62
Rising Sun
1x $0.63
Amberline
6x $1.03
Urban Sovereign
2x $1.47
↓
Possible Outputs
Crane Flight
26.7% $28.87
Kintsugi
26.7% $8.18
Deathgaze
26.7% $8.03
Shinobu
6.7% $6.65
Searing Rage
6.7% $6.61
K.O. Factory
6.7% $6.02
Max Win
$28.87 (+122.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$13.31 (+2.4%)
Win %
26.7%
Volatility
+72.4%
Cost
$12.99
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $12.99
Ask Price EV $13.31 (+2.4%)
Bid Price EV $12.84 (-1.1%)
Ask Profit $0.32 (+2.4%)
Bid Profit $-0.15 (-1.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.46 (+3.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.32
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.15
Risk
Win Probability 26.7%
Loss Probability 73.3%
Best Case $28.87 (+122.2%)
Worst Case $6.02 (-53.7%)
Volatility +72.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 73.3%
Avg Win +$15.88
Avg Loss -$5.34
Bottom 5% Outcome $6.02 (-53.7%)
Std Dev $9.41
Avg Norm Float 0.3923
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 155h 14m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P90 | Wave Breaker
—
Well-Worn
$0.62 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Rising Sun
—
Well-Worn
$0.63 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Battle-Scarred
$1.03 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Well-Worn
$1.29 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Well-Worn
$1.38 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Well-Worn
$1.47 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Well-Worn
$1.55 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Well-Worn
$1.62 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Field-Tested
$1.65 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Field-Tested
$1.75 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 55M 51S //TOTAL COST $12.99 //ASK PRICE EV $13.31 //BID PRICE EV $12.84 //ASK PROFIT $0.32 (+2.4%) //BID PROFIT $-0.15 (-1.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 26.7% //BEST CASE $28.87 //VOLATILITY +72.4% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
26.7%
$28.87
+$15.88
+122.2%
$28.15
+$15.16
+116.7%
$0.72
2.5%
—
LOSS
26.7%
$8.18
-$4.81
-37.0%
$7.65
-$5.34
-41.1%
$0.53
6.5%
—
LOSS
26.7%
$8.03
-$4.96
-38.2%
$7.96
-$5.03
-38.7%
$0.07
0.8%
—
NUKE
6.7%
$6.65
-$6.34
-48.8%
$5.95
-$7.04
-54.2%
$0.70
10.6%
—
NUKE
6.7%
$6.61
-$6.38
-49.1%
$5.91
-$7.08
-54.5%
$0.70
10.6%
—
NUKE
6.7%
$6.02
-$6.97
-53.7%
$5.75
-$7.24
-55.7%
$0.27
4.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Restricted|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.39226,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
"realistic_value": 28.8675,
"optimistic_value": 28.64,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
"conservative_value": 28.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:08:26.391960Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.39226,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
"realistic_value": 8.1785,
"optimistic_value": 8.14,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
"conservative_value": 7.65,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Kintsugi (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:15:37.035253Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.39226,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
"realistic_value": 8.0275,
"optimistic_value": 8.01,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
"conservative_value": 7.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Deathgaze (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:12:46.435484Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.39226,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4c2e3face5fd",
"realistic_value": 6.6105,
"optimistic_value": 6.53,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Searing Rage",
"conservative_value": 5.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Searing Rage (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:43:29.477387Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4c2e3face5fd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.39226,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a7838b4ba71f",
"realistic_value": 6.6545,
"optimistic_value": 6.63,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Shinobu",
"conservative_value": 5.95,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Shinobu (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T06:57:05.242538Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a7838b4ba71f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.39226,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5a6a2858b51d",
"realistic_value": 6.019,
"optimistic_value": 5.9,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | K.O. Factory",
"conservative_value": 5.75,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:12:46.301027Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5a6a2858b51d.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_78fed3d345a4b06fb718bf6e",
"input_rarity": "Restricted",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.62,
"skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"listing_id": "525375740886326335",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker (Well-Worn)",
"name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:36.218654Z"
},
{
"price": 0.63,
"skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
"listing_id": "512990841909027599",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Rising Sun (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:15:59.212442Z"
},
{
"price": 1.03,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "509613142168900191",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:01:18.913184Z"
},
{
"price": 1.29,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "524249840860098711",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:59:33.744279Z"
},
{
"price": 1.38,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "498354142901063047",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:59:33.744279Z"
},
{
"price": 1.47,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "527627540538025328",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:01:55.831170Z"
},
{
"price": 1.55,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "510738936595472014",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:59:33.744279Z"
},
{
"price": 1.62,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "505109437005486308",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:59:33.744279Z"
},
{
"price": 1.65,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "520872141039028224",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:15:47.950712Z"
},
{
"price": 1.75,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "526501640651761061",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:58:49.433796Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Classified",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|normal|10|collection-set-community-35:2+collection-set-community-37:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight 26.7% $35.39 Deathgaze 26.7% $9.36 Kintsugi 26.7% $9.23 Shinobu 6.7% $7.54 Searing Rage 6.7% $7.15 K.O. Factory 6.7% $6.55 | $35.39 +170.6% | $15.81 +20.9% | 26.7% | +90.5% | $13.08 | — |
The Fever Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear | Crane Flight 26.7% $60.44 Deathgaze 26.7% $16.71 Kintsugi 26.7% $16.53 Shinobu 6.7% $13.66 Searing Rage 6.7% $11.43 K.O. Factory 6.7% $10.09 | $60.44 +147.4% | $27.32 +11.8% | 26.7% | +82.1% | $24.43 | — |
The Fever Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Crane Flight 26.7% $150.19 Searing Rage 6.7% $50.67 Shinobu 6.7% $49.36 Deathgaze 26.7% $40.59 Kintsugi 26.7% $38.82 K.O. Factory 6.7% $34.29 | $150.19 +121.2% | $70.18 +3.4% | 26.7% | +71.3% | $67.90 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight 13.3% $35.39 Kintsugi 13.3% $9.23 Deathgaze 13.3% $9.14 Shinobu 20.0% $7.54 Searing Rage 20.0% $7.47 K.O. Factory 20.0% $6.93 | $35.39 +284.2% | $11.56 +25.5% | 26.7% | +101.9% | $9.21 | — |
The Fever Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight 16.7% $35.39 Deathgaze 16.7% $9.41 Kintsugi 16.7% $9.12 Shinobu 16.7% $7.54 Searing Rage 16.7% $7.42 K.O. Factory 16.7% $6.80 | $35.39 +248.3% | $12.61 +24.2% | 16.7% | +100.7% | $10.16 | — |
The Fever Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight 20.0% $35.39 Deathgaze 20.0% $9.36 Kintsugi 20.0% $9.12 Shinobu 13.3% $7.54 Searing Rage 13.3% $7.15 K.O. Factory 13.3% $6.55 | $35.39 +218.2% | $13.60 +22.3% | 20.0% | +98.4% | $11.12 | — |
The Fever Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight 10.0% $35.39 Deathgaze 10.0% $9.41 Kintsugi 10.0% $9.13 Shinobu 23.3% $7.54 Searing Rage 23.3% $7.42 K.O. Factory 23.3% $6.80 | $35.39 +310.5% | $10.47 +21.5% | 30.0% | +96.9% | $8.62 | — |
The Fever Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight 23.3% $35.39 Deathgaze 23.3% $9.36 Kintsugi 23.3% $9.12 Shinobu 10.0% $7.54 Searing Rage 10.0% $7.15 K.O. Factory 10.0% $6.55 | $35.39 +191.3% | $14.69 +20.9% | 23.3% | +94.3% | $12.15 | — |
The Fever Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight 30.0% $35.39 Deathgaze 30.0% $9.36 Kintsugi 30.0% $9.12 Shinobu 3.3% $7.54 Searing Rage 3.3% $7.15 K.O. Factory 3.3% $6.55 | $35.39 +146.1% | $16.87 +17.3% | 30.0% | +84.4% | $14.38 | — |
The Fever Collection ×8+The Dead Hand Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight 6.7% $35.39 Deathgaze 6.7% $9.21 Kintsugi 6.7% $9.13 Shinobu 26.7% $7.54 Searing Rage 26.7% $7.42 K.O. Factory 26.7% $6.70 | $35.39 +341.3% | $9.36 +16.7% | 20.0% | +87.2% | $8.02 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Electrum  18.0% $19.50 Firebreathing  18.0% $12.97 Galigator  18.0% $11.06 Amberline 18.0% $10.23 Urban Sovereign 18.0% $10.00 Rising Sun 2.0% $9.15 | $19.50 +79.4% | $12.16 +11.9% | 54.0% | +31.5% | $10.87 | — |