The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Zubastick
1x $0.55
Fragment
1x $0.66
Bock Blocks
1x $1.64
Reef Grief
3x $1.31
Royal Baroque
3x $1.44
Yeti Camo
1x $1.91
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
35.0% $38.92
Royal Guard
35.0% $13.48
Electrum
6.0% $7.00
Firebreathing
6.0% $5.02
Galigator
6.0% $3.29
Amberline
6.0% $3.16
Max Win
$38.92 (+137.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$19.63 (+19.7%)
Win %
35.0%
Volatility
+89.3%
Cost
$16.40
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $16.40
Ask Price EV $19.63 (+19.7%)
Bid Price EV $17.82 (+8.7%)
Ask Profit $3.23 (+19.7%)
Bid Profit $1.42 (+8.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.81 (+11.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$3.23
Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.42
Risk
Win Probability 35.0%
Loss Probability 65.0%
Best Case $38.92 (+137.3%)
Worst Case $3.10 (-81.1%)
Volatility +89.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$22.52
Avg Loss -$7.15
Bottom 5% Outcome $3.10 (-81.1%)
Std Dev $14.65
Avg Norm Float 0.0930
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 150h 4m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.55 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Minimal Wear
$0.66 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$1.64 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Minimal Wear
$1.31 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Minimal Wear
$1.32 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.44 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.57 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$1.91 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.04 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Factory New
$3.96 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 14M 22S //TOTAL COST $16.40 //ASK PRICE EV $19.63 //BID PRICE EV $17.82 //ASK PROFIT $3.23 (+19.7%) //BID PROFIT $1.42 (+8.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 35.0% //BEST CASE $38.92 //VOLATILITY +89.3% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
35.0%
$38.92
+$22.52
+137.3%
$34.38
+$17.98
+109.6%
$4.54
11.7%
—
LOSS
35.0%
$13.48
-$2.92
-17.8%
$13.24
-$3.16
-19.3%
$0.24
1.8%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$7.00
-$9.40
-57.3%
$5.93
-$10.47
-63.8%
$1.07
15.2%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$5.02
-$11.38
-69.4%
$3.97
-$12.43
-75.8%
$1.05
20.9%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$3.29
-$13.11
-80.0%
$3.18
-$13.22
-80.6%
$0.11
3.2%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$3.16
-$13.24
-80.7%
$3.13
-$13.27
-80.9%
$0.03
1.0%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$3.10
-$13.30
-81.1%
$3.08
-$13.32
-81.2%
$0.02
0.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.0697275,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 38.922000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 38.81,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 34.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T03:35:43.246321Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.055782,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 13.475999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 13.42,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 13.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:20.986312Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.09297,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 5.0200000000000005,
"optimistic_value": 4.95,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 3.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:12:02.254588Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.09297,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 3.2855000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 3.24,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 3.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:02:54.667881Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.09297,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 6.997,
"optimistic_value": 6.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 5.93,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:54.312286Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.09297,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 3.1605,
"optimistic_value": 3.15,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 3.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:55.195740Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.09297,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 3.1035,
"optimistic_value": 3.1,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 3.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:56:42.928188Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_78878669acdd9688414d7674",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.55,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "529879287552057552",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:52:04.576366Z"
},
{
"price": 0.66,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "491598743580519002",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:54:16.088265Z"
},
{
"price": 1.64,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "509613142167961707",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:15:18.941463Z"
},
{
"price": 1.31,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "630083017718303094",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:00:00.104793Z"
},
{
"price": 1.32,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "630083017713403458",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:00:00.104793Z"
},
{
"price": 1.44,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "652601015909084844",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:03:04.070971Z"
},
{
"price": 1.57,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "507361289452175017",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:03:04.070971Z"
},
{
"price": 1.91,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "524249840858909847",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:03:02.028646Z"
},
{
"price": 2.04,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "527627540537511572",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:44.745483Z"
},
{
"price": 3.96,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "640216044966789251",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:48.573840Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:3+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 35.0% $5.35 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 Amberline 6.0% $1.76 | $18.08 +140.4% | $8.95 +19.1% | 35.0% | +87.4% | $7.52 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.93 Electrum 6.0% $2.61 Firebreathing 6.0% $1.83 Galigator 6.0% $1.63 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $1.39 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.16 | $6.93 +139.0% | $3.34 +15.3% | 35.0% | +89.6% | $2.90 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.93 Electrum 6.0% $3.09 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.02 Galigator 6.0% $1.98 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $1.34 Amberline 6.0% $1.31 | $6.93 +131.8% | $3.42 +14.3% | 41.0% | +75.5% | $2.99 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 20.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 20.0% $5.35 Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 Amberline 12.0% $1.76 | $18.08 +274.3% | $6.19 +28.1% | 40.0% | +121.8% | $4.83 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 15.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 15.0% $5.35 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 Amberline 14.0% $1.76 | $18.08 +334.5% | $5.27 +26.8% | 30.0% | +128.8% | $4.16 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 25.0% $5.35 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 Amberline 10.0% $1.76 | $18.08 +220.5% | $7.11 +26.0% | 25.0% | +110.6% | $5.64 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 30.0% $5.35 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 Amberline 8.0% $1.76 | $18.08 +174.3% | $8.03 +21.8% | 30.0% | +98.0% | $6.59 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 40.0% $13.48 Electrum 4.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 4.0% $5.02 Galigator 4.0% $3.36 Amberline 4.0% $3.16 | $38.92 +111.4% | $21.82 +18.5% | 40.0% | +75.4% | $18.41 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Ascent Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 10.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 10.0% $5.35 Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 Amberline 16.0% $1.76 | $18.08 +391.2% | $4.35 +18.1% | 36.0% | +125.0% | $3.68 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.48 Electrum 2.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 2.0% $5.02 Galigator 2.0% $3.29 Amberline 2.0% $3.16 | $38.92 +90.6% | $24.01 +17.6% | 45.0% | +65.8% | $20.42 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Ascent Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 5.0% $18.08 Electrum 18.0% $7.00 Royal Guard 5.0% $5.35 Firebreathing 18.0% $5.02 Galigator 18.0% $3.29 Amberline 18.0% $3.16 | $18.08 +304.4% | $5.05 +13.0% | 46.0% | +72.0% | $4.47 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Ascent Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight  30.0% $35.39 Kintsugi  30.0% $9.71 Deathgaze  30.0% $9.58 Stratosphere  10.0% $9.02 | $35.39 +143.7% | $17.31 +19.2% | 30.0% | +81.5% | $14.52 | — |