The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Bock Blocks
1x $0.24
Zubastick
2x $0.41
Royal Baroque
2x $0.38
Cobalt Paisley
2x $0.42
Reef Grief
2x $0.98
Mint Fan
1x $1.19
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
35.0% $18.08
Royal Guard
35.0% $5.35
Electrum
6.0% $4.11
Firebreathing
6.0% $2.79
Galigator
6.0% $2.19
Urban Sovereign
6.0% $1.73
Max Win
$18.08 (+155.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$8.95 (+26.2%)
Win %
35.0%
Volatility
+96.1%
Cost
$7.09
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $7.09
Ask Price EV $8.95 (+26.2%)
Bid Price EV $7.77 (+9.6%)
Ask Profit $1.86 (+26.2%)
Bid Profit $0.68 (+9.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.18 (+16.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.86
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.68
Risk
Win Probability 35.0%
Loss Probability 65.0%
Best Case $18.08 (+155.0%)
Worst Case $1.67 (-76.4%)
Volatility +96.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$10.99
Avg Loss -$3.06
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.67 (-76.4%)
Std Dev $6.81
Avg Norm Float 0.1997
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 149h 14m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Field-Tested
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Field-Tested
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Field-Tested
$0.54 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Minimal Wear
$0.98 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Minimal Wear
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.20 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Minimal Wear
$1.31 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 23M 24S //TOTAL COST $7.09 //ASK PRICE EV $8.95 //BID PRICE EV $7.77 //ASK PROFIT $1.86 (+26.2%) //BID PROFIT $0.68 (+9.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 35.0% //BEST CASE $18.08 //VOLATILITY +96.1% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
35.0%
$18.08
+$10.99
+155.0%
$15.21
+$8.12
+114.5%
$2.87
15.9%
—
LOSS
35.0%
$5.35
-$1.74
-24.6%
$5.11
-$1.98
-27.9%
$0.24
4.5%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$4.11
-$2.98
-42.0%
$3.61
-$3.48
-49.1%
$0.50
12.2%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$2.79
-$4.30
-60.7%
$2.32
-$4.77
-67.3%
$0.47
16.8%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$2.19
-$4.90
-69.2%
$1.74
-$5.35
-75.5%
$0.45
20.4%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.73
-$5.36
-75.6%
$1.63
-$5.46
-77.0%
$0.10
5.6%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.67
-$5.42
-76.4%
$1.63
-$5.46
-77.0%
$0.04
2.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.14979,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 18.0765,
"optimistic_value": 17.94,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 15.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:04:20.243302Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.119832,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 5.348,
"optimistic_value": 5.32,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 5.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:17:23.634650Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.19972,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 2.787,
"optimistic_value": 2.78,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 2.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:10:34.264440Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.19972,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 2.1870000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 1.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T21:44:11.833560Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.19972,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 4.111,
"optimistic_value": 3.95,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 3.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:18:22.267196Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.19972,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 1.6744999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.65,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 1.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:01:38.285256Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.19972,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 1.7269999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.72,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 1.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:09:25.623704Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_78878669acdd9688414d7674",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "525375740885165047",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:58:20.088692Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "500605942755482003",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:04:41.244740Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "491598743580366974",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:04:41.244740Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "525375688037571919",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:17:28.053543Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "496102290329888807",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:15:34.591100Z"
},
{
"price": 0.54,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "500605942755288971",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:15:34.591100Z"
},
{
"price": 0.98,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "496102343225671715",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:12:19.992951Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "625579418032572382",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:53.374783Z"
},
{
"price": 1.2,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "498354142899875011",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:43.321719Z"
},
{
"price": 1.31,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "630083017718303094",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:12:19.992951Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:3+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 35.0% $13.35 Electrum 6.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 6.0% $5.02 Galigator 6.0% $3.29 Amberline 6.0% $3.15 | $38.92 +140.6% | $19.59 +21.1% | 35.0% | +87.1% | $16.18 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.93 Electrum 6.0% $2.61 Firebreathing 6.0% $1.83 Galigator 6.0% $1.63 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $1.39 Amberline 6.0% $1.19 | $6.93 +125.8% | $3.34 +8.8% | 35.0% | +75.4% | $3.07 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.93 Electrum 6.0% $3.09 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.02 Galigator 6.0% $1.98 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $1.34 Amberline 6.0% $1.30 | $6.93 +118.0% | $3.41 +7.1% | 35.0% | +71.1% | $3.18 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $38.92 Electrum 6.0% $19.50 Royal Guard 35.0% $13.35 Firebreathing 6.0% $12.97 Galigator 6.0% $11.12 Amberline 6.0% $10.22 | $38.92 +80.6% | $22.13 +2.7% | 35.0% | +56.2% | $21.55 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 25.0% $5.35 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $1.73 | $18.08 +234.7% | $7.10 +31.5% | 25.0% | +115.5% | $5.40 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 30.0% $5.35 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $1.73 | $18.08 +191.6% | $8.03 +29.5% | 30.0% | +104.3% | $6.20 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 40.0% $5.35 Electrum 4.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 4.0% $2.79 Galigator 4.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 4.0% $1.73 | $18.08 +124.0% | $9.87 +22.3% | 40.0% | +81.7% | $8.07 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 45.0% $5.35 Electrum 2.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 2.0% $2.79 Galigator 2.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 2.0% $1.73 | $18.08 +101.5% | $10.79 +20.3% | 45.0% | +72.7% | $8.97 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Ascent Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 10.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 10.0% $5.35 Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $1.73 | $18.08 +391.2% | $4.34 +17.9% | 36.0% | +125.1% | $3.68 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Ascent Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 5.0% $6.93 Electrum 18.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 18.0% $2.79 Galigator 18.0% $2.19 Urban Sovereign 18.0% $1.73 Amberline 18.0% $1.67 | $6.93 +205.3% | $2.65 +16.8% | 41.0% | +56.9% | $2.27 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Ascent Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight  30.0% $35.39 Deathgaze  30.0% $9.65 Kintsugi  30.0% $9.34 Stratosphere  10.0% $9.02 | $35.39 +147.8% | $17.21 +20.5% | 30.0% | +83.3% | $14.28 | — |