The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Inputs
Zubastick
1x $0.15
Fragment
1x $0.19
Bock Blocks
1x $0.24
Yeti Camo
2x $0.23
Cobalt Paisley
2x $0.32
Royal Baroque
2x $0.37
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
35.0% $6.93
Electrum
6.0% $2.61
Firebreathing
6.0% $1.83
Galigator
6.0% $1.63
Urban Sovereign
6.0% $1.39
Royal Guard
35.0% $1.16
Max Win
$6.93 (+139.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.34 (+15.3%)
Win %
35.0%
Volatility
+91.6%
Cost
$2.90
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $2.90
Ask Price EV $3.34 (+15.3%)
Bid Price EV $2.81 (-3.2%)
Ask Profit $0.44 (+15.3%)
Bid Profit $-0.09 (-3.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.54 (+18.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.44
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.09
Risk
Win Probability 35.0%
Loss Probability 65.0%
Best Case $6.93 (+139.0%)
Worst Case $1.08 (-62.9%)
Volatility +91.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 59.0%
Avg Win +$4.03
Avg Loss -$1.49
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.08 (-62.9%)
Std Dev $2.66
Avg Norm Float 0.4552
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 151h 13m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Well-Worn
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Well-Worn
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Well-Worn
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Field-Tested
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Field-Tested
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Field-Tested
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 18M 15S //TOTAL COST $2.90 //ASK PRICE EV $3.34 //BID PRICE EV $2.81 //ASK PROFIT $0.44 (+15.3%) //BID PROFIT $-0.09 (-3.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 35.0% //BEST CASE $6.93 //VOLATILITY +91.6% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
35.0%
$6.93
+$4.03
+139.0%
$5.76
+$2.86
+98.6%
$1.17
16.9%
—
LOSS
6.0%
$2.61
-$0.29
-9.9%
$2.03
-$0.87
-30.0%
$0.58
22.3%
—
LOSS
6.0%
$1.83
-$1.07
-37.0%
$1.77
-$1.13
-39.0%
$0.06
3.1%
—
NUKE THIN BID
6.0%
$1.63
-$1.27
-43.6%
$1.10
-$1.80
-62.1%
$0.53
32.7%
—
NUKE THIN BID
6.0%
$1.39
-$1.52
-52.2%
$1.03
-$1.87
-64.5%
$0.36
25.6%
—
NUKE
35.0%
$1.16
-$1.74
-59.9%
$1.07
-$1.83
-63.1%
$0.09
8.0%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.08
-$1.82
-62.9%
$1.01
-$1.89
-65.2%
$0.07
6.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.3414225,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 6.931,
"optimistic_value": 6.84,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 5.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:06:18.798970Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.273138,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 1.1625,
"optimistic_value": 1.11,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 1.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:54:34.957368Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.45523,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 1.8275000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 1.81,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 1.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:05:44.702216Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.45523,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 1.6345,
"optimistic_value": 1.61,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 1.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T01:11:40.185893Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.45523,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 2.614,
"optimistic_value": 2.6,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 2.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:08:26.454846Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.45523,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 1.0755,
"optimistic_value": 1.03,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:36.744419Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.45523,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 1.385,
"optimistic_value": 1.35,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 1.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T23:48:41.454498Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_78878669acdd9688414d7674",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "497228243055051209",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Well-Worn)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:00:43.803232Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "527627540537821244",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:05:39.602421Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "525375740885165047",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:37.770744Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "507361342334141593",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:59.705610Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "514116688950783354",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:59.705610Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "511864941881781933",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:02:54.342768Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "493850490550033732",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:02:54.342768Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "521998040962468770",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:06:54.821901Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "525375688037571919",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:06:54.821901Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "492724590627172473",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:03:56.943225Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:3+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 35.0% $13.48 Electrum 6.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 6.0% $5.02 Galigator 6.0% $3.29 Amberline 6.0% $3.16 | $38.92 +137.3% | $19.63 +19.7% | 35.0% | +85.8% | $16.40 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 35.0% $5.35 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 Amberline 6.0% $1.76 | $18.08 +140.4% | $8.95 +19.1% | 35.0% | +87.4% | $7.52 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.93 Electrum 6.0% $3.09 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.02 Galigator 6.0% $1.98 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $1.34 Amberline 6.0% $1.31 | $6.93 +131.8% | $3.42 +14.3% | 41.0% | +75.5% | $2.99 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 20.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 20.0% $5.35 Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 Amberline 12.0% $1.76 | $18.08 +274.3% | $6.19 +28.1% | 40.0% | +121.8% | $4.83 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 15.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 15.0% $5.35 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 Amberline 14.0% $1.76 | $18.08 +334.5% | $5.27 +26.8% | 30.0% | +128.8% | $4.16 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 25.0% $5.35 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 Amberline 10.0% $1.76 | $18.08 +220.5% | $7.11 +26.0% | 25.0% | +110.6% | $5.64 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 30.0% $5.35 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 Amberline 8.0% $1.76 | $18.08 +174.3% | $8.03 +21.8% | 30.0% | +98.0% | $6.59 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 40.0% $13.48 Electrum 4.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 4.0% $5.02 Galigator 4.0% $3.36 Amberline 4.0% $3.16 | $38.92 +111.4% | $21.82 +18.5% | 40.0% | +75.4% | $18.41 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Ascent Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 10.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 10.0% $5.35 Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 Amberline 16.0% $1.76 | $18.08 +391.2% | $4.35 +18.1% | 36.0% | +125.0% | $3.68 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.48 Electrum 2.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 2.0% $5.02 Galigator 2.0% $3.29 Amberline 2.0% $3.16 | $38.92 +90.6% | $24.01 +17.6% | 45.0% | +65.8% | $20.42 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Ascent Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 5.0% $18.08 Electrum 18.0% $7.00 Royal Guard 5.0% $5.35 Firebreathing 18.0% $5.02 Galigator 18.0% $3.29 Amberline 18.0% $3.16 | $18.08 +304.4% | $5.05 +13.0% | 46.0% | +72.0% | $4.47 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Ascent Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight  30.0% $35.39 Kintsugi  30.0% $9.71 Deathgaze  30.0% $9.58 Stratosphere  10.0% $9.02 | $35.39 +143.7% | $17.31 +19.2% | 30.0% | +81.5% | $14.52 | — |