The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Fragment
1x $0.66
Bock Blocks
1x $1.64
Dark Polymer
1x $2.12
Royal Baroque
4x $1.44
Yeti Camo
1x $1.91
Reef Grief
1x $2.04
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
35.0% $38.92
Electrum
6.0% $19.50
Royal Guard
35.0% $13.48
Firebreathing
6.0% $12.97
Galigator
6.0% $11.08
Amberline
6.0% $10.24
Max Win
$38.92 (+72.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$22.17 (-2.0%)
Win %
35.0%
Volatility
+55.0%
Cost
$22.63
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $22.63
Ask Price EV $22.17 (-2.0%)
Bid Price EV $20.25 (-10.5%)
Ask Profit $-0.46 (-2.0%)
Bid Profit $-2.38 (-10.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.91 (+8.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.46
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.38
Risk
Win Probability 35.0%
Loss Probability 65.0%
Best Case $38.92 (+72.0%)
Worst Case $10.00 (-55.8%)
Volatility +55.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 59.0%
Avg Win +$16.29
Avg Loss -$9.49
Bottom 5% Outcome $10.00 (-55.8%)
Std Dev $12.45
Avg Norm Float 0.0696
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 150h 13m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Minimal Wear
$0.66 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$1.64 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer
—
Factory New
$2.12 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.44 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.57 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$1.91 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.04 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Factory New
$2.64 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Factory New
$3.96 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Factory New
$4.65 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 13M 49S //TOTAL COST $22.63 //ASK PRICE EV $22.17 //BID PRICE EV $20.25 //ASK PROFIT $-0.46 (-2.0%) //BID PROFIT $-2.38 (-10.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 35.0% //BEST CASE $38.92 //VOLATILITY +55.0% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
35.0%
$38.92
+$16.29
+72.0%
$34.38
+$11.75
+51.9%
$4.54
11.7%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$19.50
-$3.13
-13.8%
$17.32
-$5.31
-23.5%
$2.18
11.2%
—
NUKE
35.0%
$13.48
-$9.15
-40.5%
$13.24
-$9.39
-41.5%
$0.24
1.8%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$12.97
-$9.66
-42.7%
$11.57
-$11.06
-48.9%
$1.40
10.8%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$11.08
-$11.55
-51.0%
$10.78
-$11.85
-52.4%
$0.30
2.7%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$10.24
-$12.39
-54.8%
$10.09
-$12.54
-55.4%
$0.15
1.4%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$10.00
-$12.63
-55.8%
$9.98
-$12.65
-55.9%
$0.02
0.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.052207500000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 38.922000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 38.81,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 34.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T03:35:43.246321Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.041766000000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 13.475999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 13.42,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 13.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:20.986312Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06961,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 12.967,
"optimistic_value": 12.89,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 11.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T13:05:51.443586Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06961,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 11.0835,
"optimistic_value": 11.08,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 10.78,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:06.445485Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06961,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 19.4975,
"optimistic_value": 19.34,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 17.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:01:57.497142Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06961,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 10.237,
"optimistic_value": 10.23,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 10.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:06.075952Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06961,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 10,
"optimistic_value": 10,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 9.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:30.147222Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_78878669acdd9688414d7674",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.66,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "491598743580519002",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:54:16.088265Z"
},
{
"price": 1.64,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "509613142167961707",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:15:18.941463Z"
},
{
"price": 2.12,
"skin_id": "skin-19e064301c88",
"listing_id": "519746241188345048",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Factory New)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-19e064301c88.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:54:18.377877Z"
},
{
"price": 1.44,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "652601015909084844",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:03:04.070971Z"
},
{
"price": 1.57,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "507361289452175017",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:03:04.070971Z"
},
{
"price": 1.91,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "524249840858909847",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:03:02.028646Z"
},
{
"price": 2.04,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "527627540537511572",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:44.745483Z"
},
{
"price": 2.64,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "511864941881565393",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:44.745749Z"
},
{
"price": 3.96,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "640216044966789251",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:48.573840Z"
},
{
"price": 4.65,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "503983423966579591",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:48.573840Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:3+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 35.0% $13.48 Electrum 6.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 6.0% $5.02 Galigator 6.0% $3.29 Amberline 6.0% $3.16 | $38.92 +137.3% | $19.63 +19.7% | 35.0% | +85.8% | $16.40 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 35.0% $5.35 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 Amberline 6.0% $1.76 | $18.08 +140.4% | $8.95 +19.1% | 35.0% | +87.4% | $7.52 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.93 Electrum 6.0% $2.61 Firebreathing 6.0% $1.83 Galigator 6.0% $1.63 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $1.39 Royal Guard 35.0% $1.16 | $6.93 +139.0% | $3.34 +15.3% | 35.0% | +89.6% | $2.90 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $6.93 Electrum 6.0% $3.09 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.02 Galigator 6.0% $1.98 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $1.34 Amberline 6.0% $1.31 | $6.93 +131.8% | $3.42 +14.3% | 41.0% | +75.5% | $2.99 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 20.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 20.0% $5.35 Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 Amberline 12.0% $1.76 | $18.08 +274.3% | $6.19 +28.1% | 40.0% | +121.8% | $4.83 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 15.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 15.0% $5.35 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 Amberline 14.0% $1.76 | $18.08 +334.5% | $5.27 +26.8% | 30.0% | +128.8% | $4.16 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 25.0% $5.35 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 Amberline 10.0% $1.76 | $18.08 +220.5% | $7.11 +26.0% | 25.0% | +110.6% | $5.64 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 30.0% $5.35 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 Amberline 8.0% $1.76 | $18.08 +174.3% | $8.03 +21.8% | 30.0% | +98.0% | $6.59 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 40.0% $13.48 Electrum 4.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 4.0% $5.02 Galigator 4.0% $3.36 Amberline 4.0% $3.16 | $38.92 +111.4% | $21.82 +18.5% | 40.0% | +75.4% | $18.41 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Ascent Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 10.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 10.0% $5.35 Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 Amberline 16.0% $1.76 | $18.08 +391.2% | $4.35 +18.1% | 36.0% | +125.0% | $3.68 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.48 Electrum 2.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 2.0% $5.02 Galigator 2.0% $3.29 Amberline 2.0% $3.16 | $38.92 +90.6% | $24.01 +17.6% | 45.0% | +65.8% | $20.42 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Ascent Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 5.0% $18.08 Electrum 18.0% $7.00 Royal Guard 5.0% $5.35 Firebreathing 18.0% $5.02 Galigator 18.0% $3.29 Amberline 18.0% $3.16 | $18.08 +304.4% | $5.05 +13.0% | 46.0% | +72.0% | $4.47 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Ascent Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight  30.0% $35.39 Kintsugi  30.0% $9.71 Deathgaze  30.0% $9.58 Stratosphere  10.0% $9.02 | $35.39 +143.7% | $17.31 +19.2% | 30.0% | +81.5% | $14.52 | — |