The Harlequin Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items

Battle-Scarred +2.6%Factory New -4.4%Field-Tested -7.9%Minimal Wear +14.7%Well-Worn -3.1%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn

Inputs

Warm Blooded

4x $0.48

Fraise Crane

1x $0.52

Earth Mandala

1x $0.57

2A2F

2x $0.43

Late Night Transit

1x $0.50

Green Line

1x $0.55

↓

Possible Outputs

Derailment

13.3% $7.13

Exothermic

30.0% $7.02

Charged Up

13.3% $5.48

Whiteout

13.3% $4.06

Sleeping Potion

30.0% $2.33

Max Win

$7.13 (+37.4%)

EV (ROI %)

$5.03 (-3.1%)

Win %

56.7%

Volatility

+39.1%

Cost

$5.19

Age —

Financials

Total Cost $5.19

Ask Price EV $5.03 (-3.1%)

Bid Price EV $4.68 (-9.8%)

Ask Profit $-0.16 (-3.1%)

Bid Profit $-0.51 (-9.8%)

Liquidity Gap $0.35 (+6.7%)

Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.16

Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.51

Risk

Win Probability 56.7%

Loss Probability 43.3%

Best Case $7.13 (+37.4%)

Worst Case $2.33 (-55.0%)

Volatility +39.1%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%

Avg Win +$1.49

Avg Loss -$2.32

Bottom 5% Outcome $2.33 (-55.0%)

Std Dev $2.03

Avg Norm Float 0.4496

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 23m

Oldest Output Price 28h 58m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Edge

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Field-Tested

$0.48 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Field-Tested

$0.49 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Field-Tested

$0.50 Float: HIDDEN

Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane

—

Field-Tested

$0.52 Float: HIDDEN

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala

—

Field-Tested

$0.57 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Field-Tested

$0.63 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | 2A2F

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.43 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Late Night Transit

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.50 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | 2A2F

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.52 Float: HIDDEN

Glock-18 | Green Line

—

Well-Worn

$0.55 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 47M 47S //TOTAL COST $5.19 //ASK PRICE EV $5.03 //BID PRICE EV $4.68 //ASK PROFIT $-0.16 (-3.1%) //BID PROFIT $-0.51 (-9.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 56.7% //BEST CASE $7.13 //VOLATILITY +39.1% //

Possible Outputs · 5

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 6,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 4,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.314685,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
      "realistic_value": 7.019,
      "optimistic_value": 6.83,
      "output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
      "conservative_value": 6.57,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:27:26.845091Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.314685,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
      "realistic_value": 2.3335,
      "optimistic_value": 2.26,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
      "conservative_value": 2.25,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:40:01.479108Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.13333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.314685,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
      "realistic_value": 7.1295,
      "optimistic_value": 7.07,
      "output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
      "conservative_value": 6.4,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:40:25.278030Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.13333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.482577,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
      "realistic_value": 4.061999999999999,
      "optimistic_value": 4.02,
      "output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
      "conservative_value": 3.99,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Battle-Scarred)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:27:10.560159Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.13333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.44955,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
      "realistic_value": 5.481,
      "optimistic_value": 5.46,
      "output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
      "conservative_value": 4.88,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T07:43:53.395739Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_5f0e812d6b57fea80ce87a97",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.48,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "510739041954086278",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:40:04.459825Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.49,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "526501640650851665",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:40:04.459825Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.5,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "512990841907814435",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:40:04.459825Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.52,
      "skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
      "listing_id": "491598743580280754",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:39:00.511225Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.57,
      "skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
      "listing_id": "511864723318275141",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:27.112642Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.63,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "525375688037741911",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:40:04.459825Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.43,
      "skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
      "listing_id": "527627540537800400",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:25:05.789433Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.5,
      "skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
      "listing_id": "508487242222239302",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:19:09.156057Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.52,
      "skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
      "listing_id": "502857689862614932",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:25:05.789433Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.55,
      "skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
      "listing_id": "524249840859370755",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:19.392746Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:6+collection-set-train-2025:4"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Harlequin Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 13.3% $64.86 Derailment 13.3% $41.46 Exothermic 30.0% $26.72 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $22.67 Charged Up 13.3% $22.60	$64.86 +132.5%	$32.01 +14.7%	26.7%	+51.0%	$27.90	—
The Harlequin Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Derailment 13.3% $7.13 Exothermic 30.0% $7.02 Charged Up 13.3% $4.93 Whiteout 13.3% $4.06 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $2.33	$7.13 +47.6%	$4.95 +2.6%	56.7%	+41.8%	$4.83	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Harlequin Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 35.0% $9.85 Derailment 10.0% $5.85 Charged Up 10.0% $4.93 Whiteout 10.0% $4.06 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.05	$9.85 +127.0%	$5.65 +30.1%	55.0%	+76.5%	$4.34	—
The Harlequin Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 20.0% $64.86 Derailment 20.0% $41.46 Exothermic 20.0% $27.14 Charged Up 20.0% $22.60 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $22.12	$64.86 +109.0%	$35.64 +14.8%	40.0%	+52.2%	$31.04	—
The Harlequin Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 16.7% $64.86 Derailment 16.7% $41.46 Exothermic 25.0% $26.72 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $22.67 Charged Up 16.7% $22.60	$64.86 +119.9%	$33.84 +14.7%	33.3%	+52.0%	$29.50	—
The Harlequin Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 3.3% $64.86 Derailment 3.3% $41.46 Exothermic 45.0% $26.72 Sleeping Potion 45.0% $22.67 Charged Up 3.3% $22.60	$64.86 +164.2%	$26.52 +8.0%	51.7%	+32.5%	$24.55	—
The Harlequin Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 6.7% $64.86 Derailment 6.7% $41.46 Exothermic 40.0% $26.72 Sleeping Potion 40.0% $22.67 Charged Up 6.7% $22.60	$64.86 +145.6%	$28.35 +7.4%	53.3%	+40.9%	$26.41	—

Same combination, different rarity

Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Harlequin Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 40.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 40.0% $294.44 Party Animal 20.0% $158.85	$597.10 +70.7%	$388.39 +11.0%	40.0%	+50.7%	$349.87	—