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The Harlequin Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Battle-Scarred +2.6%Factory New -4.4%Field-Tested -7.9%Minimal Wear +14.7%Well-Worn -3.1%
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Sky Mandala
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
1x $1.64
Warm Blooded
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
5x $2.27
2A2F
FAMAS | 2A2F
2x $2.68
Late Night Transit
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
2x $2.83
↓
Possible Outputs
Whiteout
Tec-9 | Whiteout
13.3% $64.86
Derailment
MAC-10 | Derailment
13.3% $41.46
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
30.0% $26.72
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
30.0% $22.67
Charged Up
Zeus x27 | Charged Up
13.3% $22.60
Max Win
$64.86 (+132.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$32.01 (+14.7%)
Win %
26.7%
Volatility
+51.0%
Cost
$27.90
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $27.90
Ask Price EV $32.01 (+14.7%)
Bid Price EV $30.28 (+8.5%)
Ask Profit $4.11 (+14.7%)
Bid Profit $2.38 (+8.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.73 (+6.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$4.11
Bid Slippage Buffer +$2.38
Risk
Win Probability 26.7%
Loss Probability 73.3%
Best Case $64.86 (+132.5%)
Worst Case $22.60 (-19.0%)
Volatility +51.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 0.00%
Avg Win +$25.26
Avg Loss -$3.59
Bottom 5% Outcome $22.60 (-19.0%)
Std Dev $14.22
Avg Norm Float 0.0956
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 17m
Oldest Output Price 151h 59m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Sign in to Validate
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Minimal Wear
Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)
$1.64 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)
$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)
$2.48 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)
$2.59 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)
$2.70 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)
$5.15 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | 2A2F
—
Minimal Wear
FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)
$2.68 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | 2A2F
—
Minimal Wear
FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)
$2.69 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Minimal Wear
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)
$2.83 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Minimal Wear
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)
$2.87 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 47M 51S //TOTAL COST $27.90 //ASK PRICE EV $32.01 //BID PRICE EV $30.28 //ASK PROFIT $4.11 (+14.7%) //BID PROFIT $2.38 (+8.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 26.7% //BEST CASE $64.86 //VOLATILITY +51.0% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Click Spin to start.
Latest Result
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Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
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Raw payload (JSON) 
{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 6,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 4,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.06691299999999999,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
      "realistic_value": 26.724,
      "optimistic_value": 26.71,
      "output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
      "conservative_value": 26.26,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:39:51.239688Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.06691299999999999,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
      "realistic_value": 22.669,
      "optimistic_value": 22.34,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
      "conservative_value": 19.86,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:39:54.330136Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.13333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.06691299999999999,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
      "realistic_value": 41.463,
      "optimistic_value": 41.4,
      "output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
      "conservative_value": 40.19,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:29:40.143491Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.13333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.1498546,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
      "realistic_value": 64.8635,
      "optimistic_value": 64.79,
      "output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
      "conservative_value": 61.61,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:42:45.497220Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.13333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.09559,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
      "realistic_value": 22.597,
      "optimistic_value": 22.59,
      "output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
      "conservative_value": 21.52,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:29:40.068383Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_5f0e812d6b57fea80ce87a97",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 1.64,
      "skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
      "listing_id": "503983642533121903",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:34.745798Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.27,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "503983589620254115",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:25.924921Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.48,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "500605724248646447",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:25.924921Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.59,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "518620235868493708",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:25.924921Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.7,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "490472625089366055",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:25.924921Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 5.15,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "521997822478339278",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:25.924921Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.68,
      "skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
      "listing_id": "519746241188969396",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:24:39.890026Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.69,
      "skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
      "listing_id": "523123940968972186",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:24:39.890026Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.83,
      "skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
      "listing_id": "519746241188631932",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:32:13.287968Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.87,
      "skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
      "listing_id": "514116741796799430",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:32:13.287968Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:6+collection-set-train-2025:4"
}
Related

Related contracts

Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Harlequin Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Derailment
MAC-10 | Derailment
13.3% $7.13
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
30.0% $7.02
Charged Up
Zeus x27 | Charged Up
13.3% $4.93
Whiteout
Tec-9 | Whiteout
13.3% $4.06
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
30.0% $2.33
$7.13
+47.6%
$4.95
+2.6%
56.7%+41.8%$4.83—
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Harlequin Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
35.0% $9.85
Derailment
MAC-10 | Derailment
10.0% $5.85
Charged Up
Zeus x27 | Charged Up
10.0% $4.93
Whiteout
Tec-9 | Whiteout
10.0% $4.06
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
35.0% $2.05
$9.85
+127.0%
$5.65
+30.1%
55.0%+76.5%$4.34—
The Harlequin Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Whiteout
Tec-9 | Whiteout
20.0% $64.86
Derailment
MAC-10 | Derailment
20.0% $41.46
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
20.0% $27.14
Charged Up
Zeus x27 | Charged Up
20.0% $22.60
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
20.0% $22.12
$64.86
+109.0%
$35.64
+14.8%
40.0%+52.2%$31.04—
The Harlequin Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Whiteout
Tec-9 | Whiteout
16.7% $64.86
Derailment
MAC-10 | Derailment
16.7% $41.46
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
25.0% $26.72
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
25.0% $22.67
Charged Up
Zeus x27 | Charged Up
16.7% $22.60
$64.86
+119.9%
$33.84
+14.7%
33.3%+52.0%$29.50—
The Harlequin Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Whiteout
Tec-9 | Whiteout
3.3% $64.86
Derailment
MAC-10 | Derailment
3.3% $41.46
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
45.0% $26.72
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
45.0% $22.67
Charged Up
Zeus x27 | Charged Up
3.3% $22.60
$64.86
+164.2%
$26.52
+8.0%
51.7%+32.5%$24.55—
The Harlequin Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Whiteout
Tec-9 | Whiteout
6.7% $64.86
Derailment
MAC-10 | Derailment
6.7% $41.46
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
40.0% $26.72
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
40.0% $22.67
Charged Up
Zeus x27 | Charged Up
6.7% $22.60
$64.86
+145.6%
$28.35
+7.4%
53.3%+40.9%$26.41—
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Harlequin Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8
Restricted → Classified Factory New
Hellish
M4A4 | Hellish
40.0% $597.10
Latte Rush
MP9 | Latte Rush
40.0% $294.44
Party Animal
M4A1-S | Party Animal
20.0% $158.85
$597.10
+70.7%
$388.39
+11.0%
40.0%+50.7%$349.87—
FS

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