The Harlequin Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items

Battle-Scarred +2.6%Factory New -4.4%Field-Tested -7.9%Minimal Wear +14.7%Well-Worn -3.1%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New

Inputs

Warm Blooded

3x $2.27

Sky Mandala

2x $3.52

Earth Mandala

1x $4.38

2A2F

3x $2.69

Green Line

1x $5.00

↓

Possible Outputs

Whiteout

13.3% $64.86

Charged Up

13.3% $63.69

Derailment

13.3% $41.46

Exothermic

30.0% $26.72

Sleeping Potion

30.0% $22.67

Max Win

$64.86 (+65.4%)

EV (ROI %)

$37.49 (-4.4%)

Win %

40.0%

Volatility

+43.7%

Cost

$39.21

Age —

Financials

Total Cost $39.21

Ask Price EV $37.49 (-4.4%)

Bid Price EV $35.20 (-10.2%)

Ask Profit $-1.72 (-4.4%)

Bid Profit $-4.01 (-10.2%)

Liquidity Gap $2.29 (+5.8%)

Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.72

Bid Slippage Buffer -$4.01

Risk

Win Probability 40.0%

Loss Probability 60.0%

Best Case $64.86 (+65.4%)

Worst Case $22.67 (-42.2%)

Volatility +43.7%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%

Avg Win +$17.46

Avg Loss -$14.51

Bottom 5% Outcome $22.67 (-42.2%)

Std Dev $17.15

Avg Norm Float 0.0699

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 16m

Oldest Output Price 151h 58m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Edge

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Factory New

$2.27 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Factory New

$2.70 Float: HIDDEN

Galil AR | Sky Mandala

—

Factory New

$3.52 Float: HIDDEN

Galil AR | Sky Mandala

—

Factory New

$4.08 Float: HIDDEN

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala

—

Factory New

$4.38 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Factory New

$5.15 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | 2A2F

—

Minimal Wear

$2.69 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | 2A2F

—

Minimal Wear

$4.19 Float: HIDDEN

Glock-18 | Green Line

—

Minimal Wear

$5.00 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | 2A2F

—

Minimal Wear

$5.23 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 46M 54S //TOTAL COST $39.21 //ASK PRICE EV $37.49 //BID PRICE EV $35.20 //ASK PROFIT $-1.72 (-4.4%) //BID PROFIT $-4.01 (-10.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $64.86 //VOLATILITY +43.7% //

Possible Outputs · 5

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 6,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 4,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.048936999999999994,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
      "realistic_value": 26.724,
      "optimistic_value": 26.71,
      "output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
      "conservative_value": 26.26,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:07.234028Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.048936999999999994,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
      "realistic_value": 22.669,
      "optimistic_value": 22.34,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
      "conservative_value": 19.86,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:11.924114Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.13333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.048936999999999994,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
      "realistic_value": 41.463,
      "optimistic_value": 41.4,
      "output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
      "conservative_value": 40.19,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:29:40.143491Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.13333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.12571539999999998,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
      "realistic_value": 64.8635,
      "optimistic_value": 64.79,
      "output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
      "conservative_value": 61.61,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:42:45.497220Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.13333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.06991,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
      "realistic_value": 63.693,
      "optimistic_value": 62.72,
      "output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
      "conservative_value": 58.44,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:10:25.585598Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_5f0e812d6b57fea80ce87a97",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 2.27,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "503983589620254115",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:25.924921Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.7,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "490472625089366055",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:25.924921Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.52,
      "skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
      "listing_id": "507361289453636653",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:18.692949Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 4.08,
      "skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
      "listing_id": "515242536108991693",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:18.692949Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 4.38,
      "skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
      "listing_id": "506234592334448352",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
      "name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:25.636998Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 5.15,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "521997822478339278",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:25.924921Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.69,
      "skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
      "listing_id": "523123940968972186",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:24:39.890026Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 4.19,
      "skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
      "listing_id": "642467916639686441",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:24:39.890026Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 5,
      "skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
      "listing_id": "508487189340410930",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:39:59.850225Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 5.23,
      "skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
      "listing_id": "528753335313592389",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:24:39.890026Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:6+collection-set-train-2025:4"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Harlequin Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 13.3% $64.86 Derailment 13.3% $41.46 Exothermic 30.0% $26.72 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $22.67 Charged Up 13.3% $22.60	$64.86 +132.5%	$32.01 +14.7%	26.7%	+51.0%	$27.90	—
The Harlequin Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Derailment 13.3% $7.13 Exothermic 30.0% $7.02 Charged Up 13.3% $4.93 Whiteout 13.3% $4.06 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $2.33	$7.13 +47.6%	$4.95 +2.6%	56.7%	+41.8%	$4.83	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Harlequin Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 20.0% $64.86 Derailment 20.0% $41.46 Exothermic 20.0% $27.14 Charged Up 20.0% $22.60 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $22.12	$64.86 +109.0%	$35.64 +14.8%	40.0%	+52.2%	$31.04	—
The Harlequin Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 16.7% $64.86 Derailment 16.7% $41.46 Exothermic 25.0% $26.72 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $22.67 Charged Up 16.7% $22.60	$64.86 +119.9%	$33.84 +14.7%	33.3%	+52.0%	$29.50	—
The Harlequin Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 10.0% $64.86 Derailment 10.0% $41.50 Exothermic 35.0% $26.72 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $22.67 Charged Up 10.0% $22.67	$64.86 +140.5%	$30.19 +11.9%	20.0%	+47.3%	$26.97	—
The Harlequin Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 3.3% $64.86 Derailment 3.3% $41.46 Exothermic 45.0% $26.72 Sleeping Potion 45.0% $22.67 Charged Up 3.3% $22.60	$64.86 +164.2%	$26.52 +8.0%	51.7%	+32.5%	$24.55	—
The Harlequin Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 6.7% $64.86 Derailment 6.7% $41.46 Exothermic 40.0% $26.72 Sleeping Potion 40.0% $22.67 Charged Up 6.7% $22.60	$64.86 +145.6%	$28.35 +7.4%	53.3%	+40.9%	$26.41	—

Same combination, different rarity

Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Harlequin Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 40.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 40.0% $294.44 Party Animal 20.0% $158.85	$597.10 +70.7%	$388.39 +11.0%	40.0%	+50.7%	$349.87	—