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The Harlequin Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items
Battle-Scarred +18.7%Factory New -3.4%Field-Tested -8.8%Minimal Wear +17.7%Well-Worn -6.0%
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Inputs
Fraise Crane
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
2x $0.39
Earth Mandala
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
2x $0.42
Sky Mandala
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
1x $0.42
Warm Blooded
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
1x $0.50
Late Night Transit
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
3x $0.48
Green Line
Glock-18 | Green Line
1x $0.59
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
30.0% $9.85
Derailment
MAC-10 | Derailment
13.3% $5.85
Charged Up
Zeus x27 | Charged Up
13.3% $4.93
Whiteout
Tec-9 | Whiteout
13.3% $4.14
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
30.0% $2.11
Max Win
$9.85 (+109.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$5.58 (+18.7%)
Win %
56.7%
Volatility
+65.3%
Cost
$4.70
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGE
Total Cost $4.70
Ask Price EV $5.58 (+18.7%)
Bid Price EV $4.30 (-8.5%)
Ask Profit $0.88 (+18.7%)
Bid Profit $-0.40 (-8.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.28 (+27.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.88
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.40
Risk
Win Probability 56.7%
Loss Probability 43.3%
Best Case $9.85 (+109.6%)
Worst Case $2.11 (-55.0%)
Volatility +65.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$3.05
Avg Loss -$1.96
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.11 (-55.0%)
Std Dev $3.07
Avg Norm Float 0.5944
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 150h 49m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Sign in to Validate
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Battle-Scarred)
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Battle-Scarred
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Battle-Scarred
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Battle-Scarred
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Well-Worn
Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)
$0.59 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 33M 39S //TOTAL COST $4.70 //ASK PRICE EV $5.58 //BID PRICE EV $4.30 //ASK PROFIT $0.88 (+18.7%) //BID PROFIT $-0.40 (-8.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 56.7% //BEST CASE $9.85 //VOLATILITY +65.3% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Click Spin to start.
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.
Raw payload (JSON) 
{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 6,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 4,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.41608,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
      "realistic_value": 9.8505,
      "optimistic_value": 9.77,
      "output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
      "conservative_value": 6.64,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:43:35.960617Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.41608,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
      "realistic_value": 2.114,
      "optimistic_value": 2.1,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
      "conservative_value": 2.02,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:20:38.646458Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.13333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.41608,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
      "realistic_value": 5.8545,
      "optimistic_value": 5.76,
      "output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
      "conservative_value": 4.9,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:54:37.199726Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.13333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.618736,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
      "realistic_value": 4.14,
      "optimistic_value": 4.14,
      "output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
      "conservative_value": 4.11,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Battle-Scarred)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:15:14.452170Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.13333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.5944,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
      "realistic_value": 4.9254999999999995,
      "optimistic_value": 4.88,
      "output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
      "conservative_value": 3.75,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Battle-Scarred)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T00:12:33.464100Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_5f0e812d6b57fea80ce87a97",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.39,
      "skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
      "listing_id": "503983642532810431",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:28:41.030186Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.41,
      "skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
      "listing_id": "496102237884557447",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:28:41.030186Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.42,
      "skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
      "listing_id": "529879235106122832",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:09:58.354856Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.42,
      "skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
      "listing_id": "519746188258250360",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:28:32.243594Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.48,
      "skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
      "listing_id": "517494441498019138",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:16.278268Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.5,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "512990841907814435",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:29:13.229706Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.48,
      "skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
      "listing_id": "500605942755567179",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:31:25.545727Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.5,
      "skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
      "listing_id": "523123888073168722",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:31:25.545727Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.51,
      "skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
      "listing_id": "510739041953634622",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:31:25.545727Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.59,
      "skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
      "listing_id": "497228243055307133",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:08.844360Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:6+collection-set-train-2025:4"
}
Related

Related contracts

Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Harlequin Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Whiteout
Tec-9 | Whiteout
13.3% $64.86
Derailment
MAC-10 | Derailment
13.3% $41.90
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
30.0% $26.72
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
30.0% $22.69
Charged Up
Zeus x27 | Charged Up
13.3% $22.67
$64.86
+138.0%
$32.08
+17.7%
26.7%+52.3%$27.25—
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Harlequin Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
40.0% $9.85
Derailment
MAC-10 | Derailment
6.7% $5.85
Charged Up
Zeus x27 | Charged Up
6.7% $4.93
Whiteout
Tec-9 | Whiteout
6.7% $4.14
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
40.0% $2.18
$9.85
+110.0%
$5.81
+23.8%
53.3%+74.0%$4.69—
The Harlequin Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
45.0% $9.85
Derailment
MAC-10 | Derailment
3.3% $5.85
Charged Up
Zeus x27 | Charged Up
3.3% $4.93
Whiteout
Tec-9 | Whiteout
3.3% $4.14
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
45.0% $2.11
$9.85
+104.4%
$5.88
+22.0%
51.7%+76.5%$4.82—
The Harlequin Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Whiteout
Tec-9 | Whiteout
16.7% $64.86
Derailment
MAC-10 | Derailment
16.7% $42.56
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
25.0% $26.72
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
25.0% $22.69
Charged Up
Zeus x27 | Charged Up
16.7% $22.67
$64.86
+126.8%
$34.03
+19.0%
33.3%+53.9%$28.60—
The Harlequin Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Whiteout
Tec-9 | Whiteout
10.0% $64.86
Derailment
MAC-10 | Derailment
10.0% $42.56
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
35.0% $26.72
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
35.0% $22.69
Charged Up
Zeus x27 | Charged Up
10.0% $22.67
$64.86
+148.1%
$30.30
+15.9%
55.0%+49.2%$26.14—
The Harlequin Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Whiteout
Tec-9 | Whiteout
20.0% $64.86
Derailment
MAC-10 | Derailment
20.0% $41.50
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
20.0% $26.72
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
20.0% $22.71
Charged Up
Zeus x27 | Charged Up
20.0% $22.67
$64.86
+108.2%
$35.69
+14.5%
40.0%+51.8%$31.16—
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Harlequin Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8
Restricted → Classified Factory New
Hellish
M4A4 | Hellish
40.0% $597.10
Latte Rush
MP9 | Latte Rush
40.0% $294.44
Party Animal
M4A1-S | Party Animal
20.0% $158.85
$597.10
+67.9%
$388.39
+9.2%
40.0%+49.9%$355.60—
FS

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