The Achroma Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Creep
4x $0.28
Grip Tape
1x $0.42
Cobalt Paisley
1x $0.31
Reef Grief
3x $0.36
Royal Baroque
1x $0.39
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
25.0% $6.93
Breakthrough
25.0% $5.61
Trace Lock
25.0% $2.31
Royal Guard
25.0% $1.26
Max Win
$6.93 (+96.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.03 (+14.2%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+65.7%
Cost
$3.53
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.53
Ask Price EV $4.03 (+14.2%)
Bid Price EV $3.53 (+0.1%)
Ask Profit $0.50 (+14.2%)
Bid Profit $0.00 (+0.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.50 (+14.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.50
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.00
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $6.93 (+96.3%)
Worst Case $1.26 (-64.3%)
Volatility +65.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$2.74
Avg Loss -$1.74
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.26 (-64.3%)
Std Dev $2.32
Avg Norm Float 0.4472
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 154h 15m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
AUG | Creep
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Field-Tested
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Field-Tested
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Well-Worn
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Field-Tested
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Field-Tested
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Field-Tested
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Field-Tested
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 08M 57S //TOTAL COST $3.53 //ASK PRICE EV $4.03 //BID PRICE EV $3.53 //ASK PROFIT $0.50 (+14.2%) //BID PROFIT $0.00 (+0.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $6.93 //VOLATILITY +65.7% //
Possible Outputs · 4
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
25.0%
$6.93
+$3.40
+96.3%
$5.76
+$2.23
+63.2%
$1.17
16.9%
—
BIG WIN
25.0%
$5.61
+$2.08
+59.0%
$5.00
+$1.47
+41.6%
$0.61
10.9%
—
LOSS
25.0%
$2.31
-$1.22
-34.4%
$2.13
-$1.40
-39.7%
$0.18
8.0%
—
NUKE
25.0%
$1.26
-$2.27
-64.3%
$1.24
-$2.29
-64.9%
$0.02
1.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.3354,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 5.6135,
"optimistic_value": 5.54,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 5,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:38.278338Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.3354,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 6.931,
"optimistic_value": 6.84,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 5.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:06:18.798970Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.31304,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 2.314,
"optimistic_value": 2.23,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 2.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:39.266711Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.26832,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 1.2610000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 1.24,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 1.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:15:49.298707Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_5f0498e7609664d4cb3771fb",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "511864888986026637",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:30.335478Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "508487242222263242",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:30.335478Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "498354142900741891",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:32.891659Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "511864941882503121",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:32.891659Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "505109542380719216",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:05:01.918706Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "509613142168236027",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:21:26.530223Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "509613142168612335",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:05:17.041196Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "503983642533425455",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:05:17.041196Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "509613142168149267",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:02:15.394460Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "499480042828625761",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:05:17.041196Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:5+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $6.94 Breakthrough 25.0% $5.67 Trace Lock 25.0% $2.28 Royal Guard 25.0% $1.26 | $6.94 +121.8% | $4.04 +29.1% | 50.0% | +74.7% | $3.13 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $18.08 Breakthrough 25.0% $12.05 Royal Guard 25.0% $5.56 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.93 | $18.08 +128.2% | $10.16 +28.2% | 50.0% | +67.6% | $7.92 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $38.92 Breakthrough 25.0% $27.06 Trace Lock 25.0% $13.90 Royal Guard 25.0% $13.27 | $38.92 +111.5% | $23.29 +26.6% | 50.0% | +57.5% | $18.40 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $6.94 Breakthrough 20.0% $5.67 Trace Lock 20.0% $2.28 Royal Guard 30.0% $1.26 | $6.94 +120.4% | $4.05 +28.6% | 50.0% | +77.7% | $3.15 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 20.0% $18.08 Breakthrough 30.0% $12.05 Royal Guard 20.0% $5.56 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.93 | $18.08 +136.0% | $9.82 +28.2% | 50.0% | +66.5% | $7.66 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×9+The Ascent Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 5.0% $18.08 Breakthrough 45.0% $12.05 Royal Guard 5.0% $5.56 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.90 | $18.08 +159.7% | $8.81 +26.6% | 50.0% | +58.2% | $6.96 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $6.94 Breakthrough 5.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 5.0% $3.20 Royal Guard 45.0% $1.18 | $6.94 +113.0% | $4.12 +26.4% | 50.0% | +85.2% | $3.26 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $38.92 Breakthrough 10.0% $27.06 Trace Lock 10.0% $13.90 Royal Guard 40.0% $13.27 | $38.92 +96.3% | $24.97 +25.9% | 50.0% | +60.8% | $19.83 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | Ocean Topo  8.9% $0.86 Naval Shred Camo  8.9% $0.73 Aeolian Dark  4.0% $0.70 Sky Blue  8.9% $0.52 Robin's Egg  8.9% $0.48 Gum Wall Camo  8.9% $0.39 | $0.86 +127.2% | $0.39 +3.0% | 48.4% | +49.9% | $0.38 | — |