The Achroma Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Grip Tape
3x $0.53
Aeolian Light
1x $0.70
Creep
1x $0.86
Reef Grief
1x $0.40
Mint Fan
1x $0.52
Royal Baroque
1x $1.05
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
25.0% $18.08
Breakthrough
25.0% $12.05
Royal Guard
25.0% $5.56
Trace Lock
25.0% $4.93
Max Win
$18.08 (+128.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$10.16 (+28.2%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+67.6%
Cost
$7.92
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $7.92
Ask Price EV $10.16 (+28.2%)
Bid Price EV $8.73 (+10.2%)
Ask Profit $2.24 (+28.2%)
Bid Profit $0.81 (+10.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.43 (+18.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$2.24
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.81
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $18.08 (+128.2%)
Worst Case $4.93 (-37.7%)
Volatility +67.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$7.14
Avg Loss -$2.67
Bottom 5% Outcome $4.93 (-37.7%)
Std Dev $5.35
Avg Norm Float 0.1997
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 153h 17m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Field-Tested
$0.53 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.70 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.73 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.80 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$0.86 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Field-Tested
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Field-Tested
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.05 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Minimal Wear
$1.15 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Minimal Wear
$1.18 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 08M 57S //TOTAL COST $7.92 //ASK PRICE EV $10.16 //BID PRICE EV $8.73 //ASK PROFIT $2.24 (+28.2%) //BID PROFIT $0.81 (+10.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $18.08 //VOLATILITY +67.6% //
Possible Outputs · 4
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
25.0%
$18.08
+$10.16
+128.2%
$15.21
+$7.29
+92.0%
$2.87
15.9%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
25.0%
$12.05
+$4.13
+52.1%
$10.32
+$2.40
+30.3%
$1.73
14.3%
—
LOSS
25.0%
$5.56
-$2.36
-29.7%
$5.11
-$2.81
-35.5%
$0.45
8.2%
—
LOSS
25.0%
$4.93
-$2.99
-37.7%
$4.28
-$3.64
-46.0%
$0.65
13.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.1497675,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 12.049,
"optimistic_value": 11.93,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 10.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:28.312731Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.1497675,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 18.0765,
"optimistic_value": 17.94,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 15.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:04:20.243302Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.139783,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 4.9319999999999995,
"optimistic_value": 4.89,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 4.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:31.467096Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.119814,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 5.5645,
"optimistic_value": 5.54,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 5.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:17:03.830819Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_5f0498e7609664d4cb3771fb",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.53,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "507361342334767273",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:05:01.918706Z"
},
{
"price": 0.7,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "502857742727258344",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:48.102188Z"
},
{
"price": 0.73,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "509613142168526763",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:36.971465Z"
},
{
"price": 0.8,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "524249840859550539",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:36.971465Z"
},
{
"price": 0.86,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "511864941882567417",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:28.129147Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "499480042828625761",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:05:17.041196Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "500605837397096555",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:59:40.053371Z"
},
{
"price": 1.05,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "491598743580854270",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:59:06.013534Z"
},
{
"price": 1.15,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "520872141038812908",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:01:51.133271Z"
},
{
"price": 1.18,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "514116741798053814",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:01:51.133271Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:5+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $6.94 Breakthrough 25.0% $5.67 Trace Lock 25.0% $2.28 Royal Guard 25.0% $1.26 | $6.94 +121.8% | $4.04 +29.1% | 50.0% | +74.7% | $3.13 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $38.92 Breakthrough 25.0% $27.06 Trace Lock 25.0% $13.90 Royal Guard 25.0% $13.27 | $38.92 +111.5% | $23.29 +26.6% | 50.0% | +57.5% | $18.40 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $6.93 Breakthrough 25.0% $5.61 Trace Lock 25.0% $2.31 Royal Guard 25.0% $1.26 | $6.93 +96.3% | $4.03 +14.2% | 50.0% | +65.7% | $3.53 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $6.94 Breakthrough 20.0% $5.67 Trace Lock 20.0% $2.28 Royal Guard 30.0% $1.26 | $6.94 +120.4% | $4.05 +28.6% | 50.0% | +77.7% | $3.15 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 20.0% $18.08 Breakthrough 30.0% $12.05 Royal Guard 20.0% $5.56 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.93 | $18.08 +136.0% | $9.82 +28.2% | 50.0% | +66.5% | $7.66 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×9+The Ascent Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 5.0% $18.08 Breakthrough 45.0% $12.05 Royal Guard 5.0% $5.56 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.90 | $18.08 +159.7% | $8.81 +26.6% | 50.0% | +58.2% | $6.96 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $6.94 Breakthrough 5.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 5.0% $3.20 Royal Guard 45.0% $1.18 | $6.94 +113.0% | $4.12 +26.4% | 50.0% | +85.2% | $3.26 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $38.92 Breakthrough 10.0% $27.06 Trace Lock 10.0% $13.90 Royal Guard 40.0% $13.27 | $38.92 +96.3% | $24.97 +25.9% | 50.0% | +60.8% | $19.83 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | Ocean Topo  8.9% $0.86 Naval Shred Camo  8.9% $0.73 Aeolian Dark  4.0% $0.70 Sky Blue  8.9% $0.52 Robin's Egg  8.9% $0.48 Gum Wall Camo  8.9% $0.39 | $0.86 +127.2% | $0.39 +3.0% | 48.4% | +49.9% | $0.38 | — |