The Achroma Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items

Factory New +1.3%Field-Tested +27.6%Minimal Wear +29.3%Well-Worn +13.0%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear

Inputs

Aeolian Light

2x $0.94

Creep

1x $1.75

Grip Tape

2x $2.14

Royal Baroque

1x $1.44

Yeti Camo

2x $1.73

Reef Grief

2x $2.02

↓

Possible Outputs

Midnight Laminate

25.0% $38.92

Breakthrough

25.0% $26.93

Trace Lock

25.0% $14.55

Royal Guard

25.0% $13.46

Max Win

$38.92 (+114.4%)

EV (ROI %)

$23.46 (+29.3%)

Win %

50.0%

Volatility

+57.2%

Cost

$18.15

Age —

Financials

Total Cost $18.15

Ask Price EV $23.46 (+29.3%)

Bid Price EV $21.85 (+20.4%)

Ask Profit $5.31 (+29.3%)

Bid Profit $3.70 (+20.4%)

Liquidity Gap $1.61 (+8.9%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$5.31

Bid Slippage Buffer +$3.70

Risk

Win Probability 50.0%

Loss Probability 50.0%

Best Case $38.92 (+114.4%)

Worst Case $13.46 (-25.8%)

Volatility +57.2%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 25.0%

Avg Win +$14.77

Avg Loss -$4.15

Bottom 5% Outcome $13.46 (-25.8%)

Std Dev $10.38

Avg Norm Float 0.0926

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 16m

Oldest Output Price 105h 38m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Edge

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

P90 | Aeolian Light

—

Minimal Wear

$0.94 Float: HIDDEN

AUG | Creep

—

Minimal Wear

$1.75 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Aeolian Light

—

Factory New

$1.93 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Grip Tape

—

Factory New

$2.14 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Grip Tape

—

Factory New

$2.35 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Royal Baroque

—

Minimal Wear

$1.44 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | Yeti Camo

—

Minimal Wear

$1.73 Float: HIDDEN

FAMAS | Yeti Camo

—

Minimal Wear

$1.81 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Reef Grief

—

Factory New

$2.02 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Reef Grief

—

Factory New

$2.04 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 56M 34S //TOTAL COST $18.15 //ASK PRICE EV $23.46 //BID PRICE EV $21.85 //ASK PROFIT $5.31 (+29.3%) //BID PROFIT $3.70 (+20.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $38.92 //VOLATILITY +57.2% //

Possible Outputs · 4

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 5,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 5,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.25,
      "output_float": 0.0694725,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
      "realistic_value": 26.926499999999997,
      "optimistic_value": 26.72,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
      "conservative_value": 26.63,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:41:55.655672Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.25,
      "output_float": 0.0694725,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
      "realistic_value": 38.922000000000004,
      "optimistic_value": 38.81,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
      "conservative_value": 34.38,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T03:35:43.246321Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.25,
      "output_float": 0.064841,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
      "realistic_value": 14.545,
      "optimistic_value": 14.44,
      "output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
      "conservative_value": 13.16,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:14.291603Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.25,
      "output_float": 0.055578,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
      "realistic_value": 13.458499999999999,
      "optimistic_value": 13.42,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
      "conservative_value": 13.24,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:45:10.794671Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_5f0498e7609664d4cb3771fb",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.94,
      "skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
      "listing_id": "518620288313427412",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:58:08.859818Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.75,
      "skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
      "listing_id": "503983642532704231",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "AUG | Creep",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:35.789474Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.93,
      "skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
      "listing_id": "496102343225984807",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
      "name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:06:36.616694Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.14,
      "skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
      "listing_id": "526501640651063345",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
      "name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:18.375810Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.35,
      "skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
      "listing_id": "518620341243286300",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
      "name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:18.375810Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.44,
      "skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
      "listing_id": "652601015909084844",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:06:46.655825Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.73,
      "skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
      "listing_id": "506235442367855340",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:06:42.442223Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.81,
      "skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
      "listing_id": "523123940969243050",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:06:42.442223Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.02,
      "skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
      "listing_id": "518620341243184240",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
      "name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:19.354031Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.04,
      "skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
      "listing_id": "523123940969190454",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
      "name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:19.354031Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:5+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:5"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 25.0% $18.08 Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Royal Guard 25.0% $5.47 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.57	$18.08 +128.5%	$10.09 +27.6%	50.0%	+69.3%	$7.91	—
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn	Midnight Laminate 25.0% $6.93 Breakthrough 25.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 25.0% $2.31 Royal Guard 25.0% $1.23	$6.93 +92.0%	$4.08 +13.0%	50.0%	+65.8%	$3.61	—
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New	Midnight Laminate 25.0% $38.92 Breakthrough 25.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 25.0% $14.55 Royal Guard 25.0% $13.46	$38.92 +68.0%	$23.46 +1.3%	50.0%	+44.8%	$23.17	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 40.0% $6.94 Breakthrough 10.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 10.0% $3.20 Royal Guard 40.0% $1.23	$6.94 +114.3%	$4.20 +29.6%	50.0%	+81.8%	$3.24	—
The Achroma Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Breakthrough 5.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 5.0% $14.39 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.49	$38.92 +92.5%	$25.65 +26.9%	50.0%	+61.0%	$20.22	—
The Achroma Collection ×8+The Ascent Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Midnight Laminate 10.0% $38.92 Breakthrough 40.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 40.0% $14.55 Royal Guard 10.0% $13.49	$38.92 +122.5%	$21.83 +24.8%	50.0%	+47.1%	$17.49	—
The Achroma Collection ×9+The Ascent Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Midnight Laminate 5.0% $38.92 Breakthrough 45.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 45.0% $14.39 Royal Guard 5.0% $13.38	$38.92 +123.0%	$21.21 +21.5%	50.0%	+42.3%	$17.45	—