The Achroma Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Aeolian Light
1x $1.93
Grip Tape
3x $2.14
The Daily Deagle
1x $3.00
Royal Baroque
1x $1.44
Reef Grief
3x $2.04
Mint Fan
1x $3.33
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
25.0% $38.92
Breakthrough
25.0% $27.06
Trace Lock
25.0% $13.90
Royal Guard
25.0% $13.27
Max Win
$38.92 (+60.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$23.29 (-4.0%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+43.6%
Cost
$24.25
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $24.25
Ask Price EV $23.29 (-4.0%)
Bid Price EV $21.78 (-10.2%)
Ask Profit $-0.96 (-4.0%)
Bid Profit $-2.47 (-10.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.51 (+6.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.96
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.47
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $38.92 (+60.5%)
Worst Case $13.27 (-45.3%)
Volatility +43.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$8.74
Avg Loss -$10.66
Bottom 5% Outcome $13.27 (-45.3%)
Std Dev $10.57
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 106h 45m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Factory New
$1.93 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Factory New
$2.14 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Factory New
$2.23 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Factory New
$2.35 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Factory New
$3.00 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.44 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.04 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.08 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Factory New
$3.33 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$3.71 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 08M 08S //TOTAL COST $24.25 //ASK PRICE EV $23.29 //BID PRICE EV $21.78 //ASK PROFIT $-0.96 (-4.0%) //BID PROFIT $-2.47 (-10.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $38.92 //VOLATILITY +43.6% //
Possible Outputs · 4
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
25.0%
$38.92
+$14.67
+60.5%
$34.38
+$10.13
+41.8%
$4.54
11.7%
—
SMALL WIN
25.0%
$27.06
+$2.81
+11.6%
$26.47
+$2.22
+9.2%
$0.59
2.2%
—
NUKE
25.0%
$13.90
-$10.35
-42.7%
$13.19
-$11.06
-45.6%
$0.71
5.1%
—
NUKE
25.0%
$13.27
-$10.98
-45.3%
$13.08
-$11.17
-46.1%
$0.19
1.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.052312500000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 27.057000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 27.05,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 26.47,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:40:17.581071Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.052312500000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 38.922000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 38.81,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 34.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T03:35:43.246321Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.048825,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 13.9015,
"optimistic_value": 13.66,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 13.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:33.036004Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.041850000000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 13.27,
"optimistic_value": 13.13,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 13.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:32.144800Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_5f0498e7609664d4cb3771fb",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.93,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "500605942756212155",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:37.293182Z"
},
{
"price": 2.14,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "519746241188615516",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:32.588818Z"
},
{
"price": 2.23,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "500605942755906911",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:32.588818Z"
},
{
"price": 2.35,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "518620341243286300",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:32.588818Z"
},
{
"price": 3,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "506235389469302484",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:59.082607Z"
},
{
"price": 1.44,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "652601015909084844",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:59:06.013534Z"
},
{
"price": 2.04,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "506235442368331512",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:45.233264Z"
},
{
"price": 2.08,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "525375740886326767",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:45.233264Z"
},
{
"price": 3.33,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "524249840859355167",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:21:02.019867Z"
},
{
"price": 3.71,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "634586617400715303",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:45.233264Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:5+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $6.94 Breakthrough 25.0% $5.67 Trace Lock 25.0% $2.28 Royal Guard 25.0% $1.26 | $6.94 +121.8% | $4.04 +29.1% | 50.0% | +74.7% | $3.13 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $18.08 Breakthrough 25.0% $12.05 Royal Guard 25.0% $5.56 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.93 | $18.08 +128.2% | $10.16 +28.2% | 50.0% | +67.6% | $7.92 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $38.92 Breakthrough 25.0% $27.06 Trace Lock 25.0% $13.90 Royal Guard 25.0% $13.27 | $38.92 +111.5% | $23.29 +26.6% | 50.0% | +57.5% | $18.40 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $6.93 Breakthrough 25.0% $5.61 Trace Lock 25.0% $2.31 Royal Guard 25.0% $1.26 | $6.93 +96.3% | $4.03 +14.2% | 50.0% | +65.7% | $3.53 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $6.94 Breakthrough 20.0% $5.67 Trace Lock 20.0% $2.28 Royal Guard 30.0% $1.26 | $6.94 +120.4% | $4.05 +28.6% | 50.0% | +77.7% | $3.15 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 20.0% $18.08 Breakthrough 30.0% $12.05 Royal Guard 20.0% $5.56 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.93 | $18.08 +136.0% | $9.82 +28.2% | 50.0% | +66.5% | $7.66 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×9+The Ascent Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 5.0% $18.08 Breakthrough 45.0% $12.05 Royal Guard 5.0% $5.56 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.90 | $18.08 +159.7% | $8.81 +26.6% | 50.0% | +58.2% | $6.96 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $6.94 Breakthrough 5.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 5.0% $3.20 Royal Guard 45.0% $1.18 | $6.94 +113.0% | $4.12 +26.4% | 50.0% | +85.2% | $3.26 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $38.92 Breakthrough 10.0% $27.06 Trace Lock 10.0% $13.90 Royal Guard 40.0% $13.27 | $38.92 +96.3% | $24.97 +25.9% | 50.0% | +60.8% | $19.83 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade Minimal Wear | Ocean Topo  8.9% $0.86 Naval Shred Camo  8.9% $0.73 Aeolian Dark  4.0% $0.70 Sky Blue  8.9% $0.52 Robin's Egg  8.9% $0.48 Gum Wall Camo  8.9% $0.39 | $0.86 +127.2% | $0.39 +3.0% | 48.4% | +49.9% | $0.38 | — |