The Dust 2 Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items

Battle-Scarred +10.4%Factory New -34.8%Field-Tested +15.2%Minimal Wear +1.8%Well-Worn +7.0%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn

Inputs

Damascus Steel

4x $0.13

Aeolian Light

3x $0.26

Creep

1x $0.28

The Daily Deagle

1x $0.36

Grip Tape

1x $0.36

↓

Possible Outputs

Breakthrough

30.0% $5.85

Trace Lock

30.0% $2.16

Amber Fade

40.0% $0.90

Max Win

$5.85 (+126.8%)

EV (ROI %)

$2.76 (+7.0%)

Win %

30.0%

Volatility

+81.0%

Cost

$2.58

Age —

Financials

ASK-ONLY EDGE

Total Cost $2.58

Ask Price EV $2.76 (+7.0%)

Bid Price EV $2.44 (-5.4%)

Ask Profit $0.18 (+7.0%)

Bid Profit $-0.14 (-5.4%)

Liquidity Gap $0.32 (+12.4%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.18

Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.14

Risk

Win Probability 30.0%

Loss Probability 70.0%

Best Case $5.85 (+126.8%)

Worst Case $0.90 (-65.3%)

Volatility +81.0%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%

Avg Win +$3.27

Avg Loss -$1.14

Bottom 5% Outcome $0.90 (-65.3%)

Std Dev $2.09

Avg Norm Float 0.4493

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 16m

Oldest Output Price 148h 57m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Safe

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

SG 553 | Damascus Steel

—

Well-Worn

$0.13 Float: HIDDEN

SG 553 | Damascus Steel

—

Well-Worn

$0.14 Float: HIDDEN

SG 553 | Damascus Steel

—

Well-Worn

$0.15 Float: HIDDEN

SG 553 | Damascus Steel

—

Field-Tested

$0.27 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Aeolian Light

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.26 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Aeolian Light

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.27 Float: HIDDEN

AUG | Creep

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.28 Float: HIDDEN

Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle

—

Field-Tested

$0.36 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Aeolian Light

—

Field-Tested

$0.36 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Grip Tape

—

Field-Tested

$0.36 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 46M 58S //TOTAL COST $2.58 //ASK PRICE EV $2.76 //BID PRICE EV $2.44 //ASK PROFIT $0.18 (+7.0%) //BID PROFIT $-0.14 (-5.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $5.85 //VOLATILITY +81.0% //

Possible Outputs · 3

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-dust-2|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 4,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 6,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.4,
      "output_float": 0.17971600000000001,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-1faf71e7b6fe",
      "realistic_value": 0.895,
      "optimistic_value": 0.86,
      "output_full_name": "P2000 | Amber Fade",
      "conservative_value": 0.82,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Dust 2 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:09:46.937339Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1faf71e7b6fe.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.33696750000000003,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
      "realistic_value": 5.850499999999999,
      "optimistic_value": 5.77,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
      "conservative_value": 4.91,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:53.253669Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.314503,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
      "realistic_value": 2.1575,
      "optimistic_value": 2.14,
      "output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
      "conservative_value": 2.13,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:17:03.693392Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_5d6bea89278cdc3275215361",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.13,
      "skin_id": "skin-473110a625aa",
      "listing_id": "518620288314169840",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
      "market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-473110a625aa.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:18:13.203441Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.14,
      "skin_id": "skin-473110a625aa",
      "listing_id": "529879287551893068",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
      "market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-473110a625aa.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:18:13.203441Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.15,
      "skin_id": "skin-473110a625aa",
      "listing_id": "496101493268200643",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
      "market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-473110a625aa.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:18:13.203441Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.27,
      "skin_id": "skin-473110a625aa",
      "listing_id": "509613036861218403",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
      "market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-473110a625aa.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:05:13.764206Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.26,
      "skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
      "listing_id": "511864941881349645",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:09:25.892994Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.27,
      "skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
      "listing_id": "529879287550318068",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:09:25.892994Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.28,
      "skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
      "listing_id": "514116688950863706",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "AUG | Creep",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:17:05.951951Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.36,
      "skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
      "listing_id": "520872141037641288",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:02:31.184941Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.36,
      "skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
      "listing_id": "491598743580262862",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:40.087635Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.36,
      "skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
      "listing_id": "493850543431854508",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:12:18.506095Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-dust-2:4+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:6"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Dust 2 Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Amber Fade 40.0% $5.51 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.29	$12.25 +96.9%	$7.17 +15.2%	30.0%	+54.1%	$6.22	—
The Dust 2 Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Breakthrough 30.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 30.0% $2.16 Amber Fade 40.0% $0.90	$5.85 +134.0%	$2.76 +10.4%	30.0%	+83.6%	$2.50	—
The Dust 2 Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Breakthrough 30.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 30.0% $14.65 Amber Fade 40.0% $5.51	$26.93 +86.7%	$14.68 +1.8%	60.0%	+61.5%	$14.42	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Dust 2 Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Breakthrough 45.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.22 Amber Fade 10.0% $1.37	$12.25 +94.4%	$7.55 +19.8%	45.0%	+68.7%	$6.30	—
The Dust 2 Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Breakthrough 40.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.22 Amber Fade 20.0% $1.37	$12.25 +106.5%	$6.86 +15.7%	40.0%	+76.2%	$5.93	—
The Dust 2 Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Amber Fade 60.0% $5.51 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.28	$12.25 +114.1%	$6.61 +15.6%	20.0%	+49.9%	$5.72	—
The Dust 2 Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Amber Fade 50.0% $5.51 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.22	$12.25 +104.8%	$6.87 +14.9%	25.0%	+52.6%	$5.98	—
The Dust 2 Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Amber Fade 30.0% $5.51 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.29	$12.25 +87.8%	$7.44 +14.1%	35.0%	+54.6%	$6.52	—