The Dust 2 Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items

Battle-Scarred +9.1%Factory New -31.0%Field-Tested +9.0%Minimal Wear +3.6%Well-Worn +3.8%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred

Inputs

Damascus Steel

4x $0.13

Aeolian Light

4x $0.26

Creep

2x $0.28

↓

Possible Outputs

Breakthrough

30.0% $5.85

Trace Lock

30.0% $2.18

Amber Fade

40.0% $0.90

Max Win

$5.85 (+130.3%)

EV (ROI %)

$2.77 (+9.1%)

Win %

30.0%

Volatility

+82.1%

Cost

$2.54

Age —

Financials

ASK-ONLY EDGE

Total Cost $2.54

Ask Price EV $2.77 (+9.1%)

Bid Price EV $2.44 (-3.9%)

Ask Profit $0.23 (+9.1%)

Bid Profit $-0.10 (-3.9%)

Liquidity Gap $0.33 (+13.0%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.23

Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.10

Risk

Win Probability 30.0%

Loss Probability 70.0%

Best Case $5.85 (+130.3%)

Worst Case $0.90 (-64.5%)

Volatility +82.1%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%

Avg Win +$3.31

Avg Loss -$1.09

Bottom 5% Outcome $0.90 (-64.5%)

Std Dev $2.08

Avg Norm Float 0.4913

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 24m

Oldest Output Price 147h 52m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Safe

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

SG 553 | Damascus Steel

—

Well-Worn

$0.13 Float: HIDDEN

SG 553 | Damascus Steel

—

Well-Worn

$0.14 Float: HIDDEN

SG 553 | Damascus Steel

—

Well-Worn

$0.15 Float: HIDDEN

SG 553 | Damascus Steel

—

Field-Tested

$0.23 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Aeolian Light

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.26 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Aeolian Light

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.27 Float: HIDDEN

AUG | Creep

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.28 Float: HIDDEN

AUG | Creep

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.34 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Aeolian Light

—

Field-Tested

$0.36 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Aeolian Light

—

Field-Tested

$0.38 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 45M 45S //TOTAL COST $2.54 //ASK PRICE EV $2.77 //BID PRICE EV $2.44 //ASK PROFIT $0.23 (+9.1%) //BID PROFIT $-0.10 (-3.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $5.85 //VOLATILITY +82.1% //

Possible Outputs · 3

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-dust-2|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 4,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 6,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.4,
      "output_float": 0.19651200000000002,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-1faf71e7b6fe",
      "realistic_value": 0.9015,
      "optimistic_value": 0.87,
      "output_full_name": "P2000 | Amber Fade",
      "conservative_value": 0.82,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Dust 2 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:33:29.987319Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1faf71e7b6fe.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.36846,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
      "realistic_value": 5.850499999999999,
      "optimistic_value": 5.77,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
      "conservative_value": 4.91,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:53.253669Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.343896,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
      "realistic_value": 2.1835,
      "optimistic_value": 2.18,
      "output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
      "conservative_value": 2.13,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:03:04.150349Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_5d6bea89278cdc3275215361",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.13,
      "skin_id": "skin-473110a625aa",
      "listing_id": "518620288314169840",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
      "market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-473110a625aa.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:04:54.720375Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.14,
      "skin_id": "skin-473110a625aa",
      "listing_id": "529879287551893068",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
      "market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-473110a625aa.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:04:54.720375Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.15,
      "skin_id": "skin-473110a625aa",
      "listing_id": "496101493268200643",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
      "market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-473110a625aa.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:04:54.720375Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.23,
      "skin_id": "skin-473110a625aa",
      "listing_id": "494976390477412446",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
      "market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "SG 553 | Damascus Steel",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-473110a625aa.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:50:39.418084Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.26,
      "skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
      "listing_id": "511864941881349645",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:55:03.278386Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.27,
      "skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
      "listing_id": "529879287550318068",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:55:03.278386Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.28,
      "skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
      "listing_id": "514116688950863706",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "AUG | Creep",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:03:06.821461Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.34,
      "skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
      "listing_id": "508487136896542430",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "AUG | Creep",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:03:06.821461Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.36,
      "skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
      "listing_id": "500605942755268019",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:00:15.920587Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.38,
      "skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
      "listing_id": "528753387758306745",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:00:15.920587Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-dust-2:4+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:6"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Dust 2 Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Amber Fade 40.0% $5.83 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.28	$12.25 +83.0%	$7.29 +9.0%	30.0%	+49.4%	$6.69	—
The Dust 2 Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn	Breakthrough 30.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 30.0% $2.18 Amber Fade 40.0% $0.90	$5.85 +119.1%	$2.77 +3.8%	30.0%	+78.1%	$2.67	—
The Dust 2 Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Breakthrough 30.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 30.0% $14.65 Amber Fade 40.0% $5.83	$26.93 +88.4%	$14.81 +3.6%	60.0%	+61.1%	$14.29	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Dust 2 Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Breakthrough 40.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 40.0% $2.19 Amber Fade 20.0% $0.90	$5.85 +105.3%	$3.39 +19.1%	40.0%	+72.3%	$2.85	—
The Dust 2 Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Breakthrough 45.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.28 Amber Fade 10.0% $1.37	$12.25 +88.7%	$7.57 +16.7%	45.0%	+66.4%	$6.49	—
The Dust 2 Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Breakthrough 35.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 35.0% $2.18 Amber Fade 30.0% $0.90	$5.85 +116.7%	$3.08 +14.1%	35.0%	+77.7%	$2.70	—
The Dust 2 Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Amber Fade 50.0% $5.74 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.28	$12.25 +98.8%	$7.00 +13.7%	25.0%	+50.1%	$6.16	—
The Dust 2 Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Amber Fade 60.0% $5.78 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.28	$12.25 +104.1%	$6.78 +12.9%	20.0%	+46.6%	$6.00	—