The Dust 2 Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items

Battle-Scarred +10.4%Factory New -34.8%Field-Tested +15.2%Minimal Wear +1.8%Well-Worn +7.0%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New

Inputs

Brass

3x $0.80

VariCamo

1x $3.24

Aeolian Light

1x $1.87

Creep

2x $1.88

Grip Tape

1x $2.14

The Daily Deagle

2x $3.00

↓

Possible Outputs

Breakthrough

30.0% $26.93

Trace Lock

30.0% $14.65

Amber Fade

40.0% $5.51

Max Win

$26.93 (+19.6%)

EV (ROI %)

$14.68 (-34.8%)

Win %

30.0%

Volatility

+39.4%

Cost

$22.51

Age —

Financials

Total Cost $22.51

Ask Price EV $14.68 (-34.8%)

Bid Price EV $13.85 (-38.5%)

Ask Profit $-7.83 (-34.8%)

Bid Profit $-8.66 (-38.5%)

Liquidity Gap $0.82 (+3.7%)

Ask Slippage Buffer -$7.83

Bid Slippage Buffer -$8.66

Risk

Win Probability 30.0%

Loss Probability 70.0%

Best Case $26.93 (+19.6%)

Worst Case $5.51 (-75.5%)

Volatility +39.4%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 70.0%

Avg Win +$4.42

Avg Loss -$13.08

Bottom 5% Outcome $5.51 (-75.5%)

Std Dev $8.87

Avg Norm Float 0.0699

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 22m

Oldest Output Price 10h 36m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Safe

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

PP-Bizon | Brass

—

Minimal Wear

$0.80 Float: HIDDEN

PP-Bizon | Brass

—

Minimal Wear

$1.00 Float: HIDDEN

PP-Bizon | Brass

—

Minimal Wear

$1.61 Float: HIDDEN

M4A1-S | VariCamo

—

Factory New

$3.24 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Aeolian Light

—

Factory New

$1.87 Float: HIDDEN

AUG | Creep

—

Minimal Wear

$1.88 Float: HIDDEN

AUG | Creep

—

Minimal Wear

$1.98 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Grip Tape

—

Factory New

$2.14 Float: HIDDEN

Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle

—

Factory New

$3.00 Float: HIDDEN

Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle

—

Factory New

$4.99 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 46M 35S //TOTAL COST $22.51 //ASK PRICE EV $14.68 //BID PRICE EV $13.85 //ASK PROFIT $-7.83 (-34.8%) //BID PROFIT $-8.66 (-38.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $26.93 //VOLATILITY +39.4% //

Possible Outputs · 3

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-dust-2|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 4,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 6,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.4,
      "output_float": 0.027976,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-1faf71e7b6fe",
      "realistic_value": 5.5115,
      "optimistic_value": 5.41,
      "output_full_name": "P2000 | Amber Fade",
      "conservative_value": 4.79,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Dust 2 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Amber Fade (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:07:45.005444Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1faf71e7b6fe.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.052455,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
      "realistic_value": 26.926499999999997,
      "optimistic_value": 26.72,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
      "conservative_value": 26.63,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:41:55.655672Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.048958,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
      "realistic_value": 14.647,
      "optimistic_value": 14.64,
      "output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
      "conservative_value": 13.16,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:11:52.373111Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_5d6bea89278cdc3275215361",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.8,
      "skin_id": "skin-891034135d58",
      "listing_id": "499479989897279749",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
      "market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Brass (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "PP-Bizon | Brass",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-891034135d58.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:01:44.930390Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1,
      "skin_id": "skin-891034135d58",
      "listing_id": "507359315991156487",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
      "market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Brass (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "PP-Bizon | Brass",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-891034135d58.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:01:44.930390Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.61,
      "skin_id": "skin-891034135d58",
      "listing_id": "743787424996408847",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
      "market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Brass (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "PP-Bizon | Brass",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-891034135d58.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:01:44.930390Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.24,
      "skin_id": "skin-2d90d1532701",
      "listing_id": "635712445340266039",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-dust-2",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | VariCamo (Factory New)",
      "name": "M4A1-S | VariCamo",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d90d1532701.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:04:35.794817Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.87,
      "skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
      "listing_id": "506235442367138652",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
      "name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:31.432497Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.88,
      "skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
      "listing_id": "524248990833803271",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "AUG | Creep",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:17:01.321528Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.98,
      "skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
      "listing_id": "653726915754482667",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "AUG | Creep",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:17:01.321528Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.14,
      "skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
      "listing_id": "519746241188615516",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
      "name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:55:49.033788Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3,
      "skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
      "listing_id": "506235389469302484",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:17:08.813683Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 4.99,
      "skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
      "listing_id": "658230515405375198",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:17:08.813683Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-dust-2:4+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:6"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Dust 2 Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Amber Fade 40.0% $5.51 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.29	$12.25 +96.9%	$7.17 +15.2%	30.0%	+54.1%	$6.22	—
The Dust 2 Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Breakthrough 30.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 30.0% $2.16 Amber Fade 40.0% $0.90	$5.85 +134.0%	$2.76 +10.4%	30.0%	+83.6%	$2.50	—
The Dust 2 Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn	Breakthrough 30.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 30.0% $2.16 Amber Fade 40.0% $0.90	$5.85 +126.8%	$2.76 +7.0%	30.0%	+81.0%	$2.58	—
The Dust 2 Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Breakthrough 30.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 30.0% $14.65 Amber Fade 40.0% $5.51	$26.93 +86.7%	$14.68 +1.8%	60.0%	+61.5%	$14.42	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Dust 2 Collection ×1+The Achroma Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Breakthrough 45.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.22 Amber Fade 10.0% $1.37	$12.25 +94.4%	$7.55 +19.8%	45.0%	+68.7%	$6.30	—
The Dust 2 Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Breakthrough 40.0% $12.25 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.22 Amber Fade 20.0% $1.37	$12.25 +106.5%	$6.86 +15.7%	40.0%	+76.2%	$5.93	—
The Dust 2 Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Amber Fade 60.0% $5.51 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.28	$12.25 +114.1%	$6.61 +15.6%	20.0%	+49.9%	$5.72	—
The Dust 2 Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Amber Fade 50.0% $5.51 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.22	$12.25 +104.8%	$6.87 +14.9%	25.0%	+52.6%	$5.98	—
The Dust 2 Collection ×3+The Achroma Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Amber Fade 30.0% $5.51 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.29	$12.25 +87.8%	$7.44 +14.1%	35.0%	+54.6%	$6.52	—