The Achroma Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Aeolian Light
1x $0.26
Creep
2x $0.28
Poplar Thicket
1x $0.14
Copperflage
3x $0.15
Gold Leaf
3x $0.17
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
15.0% $5.85
Trace Lock
15.0% $2.18
Sheet Lightning
35.0% $1.71
Glockingbird
35.0% $1.46
Max Win
$5.85 (+135.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.32 (-7.0%)
Win %
15.0%
Volatility
+60.4%
Cost
$2.49
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.49
Ask Price EV $2.32 (-7.0%)
Bid Price EV $2.12 (-15.0%)
Ask Profit $-0.17 (-7.0%)
Bid Profit $-0.37 (-15.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.20 (+8.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.17
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.37
Risk
Win Probability 15.0%
Loss Probability 85.0%
Best Case $5.85 (+135.0%)
Worst Case $1.46 (-41.4%)
Volatility +60.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 70.0%
Avg Win +$3.36
Avg Loss -$0.80
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.46 (-41.4%)
Std Dev $1.50
Avg Norm Float 0.4454
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 147h 4m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Field-Tested
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 00M 37S //TOTAL COST $2.49 //ASK PRICE EV $2.32 //BID PRICE EV $2.12 //ASK PROFIT $-0.17 (-7.0%) //BID PROFIT $-0.37 (-15.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 15.0% //BEST CASE $5.85 //VOLATILITY +60.4% //
Possible Outputs · 4
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
15.0%
$5.85
+$3.36
+135.0%
$4.91
+$2.42
+97.2%
$0.94
16.1%
—
LOSS
15.0%
$2.18
-$0.31
-12.3%
$2.13
-$0.36
-14.5%
$0.05
2.5%
—
LOSS
35.0%
$1.71
-$0.78
-31.2%
$1.58
-$0.91
-36.5%
$0.13
7.8%
—
NUKE
35.0%
$1.46
-$1.03
-41.4%
$1.45
-$1.04
-41.8%
$0.01
0.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.29841130000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a242e44f6b",
"realistic_value": 1.46,
"optimistic_value": 1.46,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird",
"conservative_value": 1.45,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:14:16.807835Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a242e44f6b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.3340425,
"output_skin_id": "skin-25e2a5c0a7df",
"realistic_value": 1.714,
"optimistic_value": 1.7,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning",
"conservative_value": 1.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T03:16:00.439567Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25e2a5c0a7df.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.3340425,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 5.850499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 5.77,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 4.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:53.253669Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.31177299999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 2.1835,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 2.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:17:54.351949Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_5277fbc570333455bf07d483",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "511864941881349645",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:08:59.382880Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "514116688950863706",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:17:55.222140Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "508487136896542430",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:17:55.222140Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "492724590626116089",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:25:45.334820Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "512990789045605739",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:04:38.755105Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "492724590627314025",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:02:26.104613Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "496102290328703183",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:02:26.104613Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "514116523133772618",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:02:26.104613Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "500605889842078859",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:20:53.545345Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "499480042827500509",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:20:53.545345Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:3+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 35.0% $5.26 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.28 Glockingbird 35.0% $3.88 | $12.25 +170.3% | $5.68 +25.4% | 50.0% | +62.2% | $4.53 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 15.0% $26.93 Sheet Lightning 35.0% $17.68 Trace Lock 15.0% $14.65 Glockingbird 35.0% $11.97 | $26.93 +83.4% | $16.61 +13.2% | 50.0% | +33.7% | $14.68 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×8+The Boreal Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 40.0% $26.93 Sheet Lightning 10.0% $17.68 Trace Lock 40.0% $14.71 Glockingbird 10.0% $11.77 | $26.93 +68.0% | $19.60 +22.3% | 50.0% | +38.2% | $16.03 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 30.0% $5.26 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.34 Glockingbird 30.0% $3.92 | $12.25 +146.4% | $6.07 +22.2% | 50.0% | +63.0% | $4.97 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 10.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 40.0% $5.25 Trace Lock 10.0% $4.24 Glockingbird 40.0% $3.83 | $12.25 +175.2% | $5.28 +18.7% | 50.0% | +54.1% | $4.45 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×1+The Boreal Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 5.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 45.0% $5.25 Trace Lock 5.0% $4.24 Glockingbird 45.0% $3.83 | $12.25 +186.8% | $4.91 +15.0% | 50.0% | +42.5% | $4.27 | — |