The Achroma Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items

Battle-Scarred -4.3%Factory New -19.3%Field-Tested +25.4%Minimal Wear +13.2%Well-Worn -7.0%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear

Inputs

Grip Tape

1x $0.81

Aeolian Light

1x $2.11

The Daily Deagle

1x $3.00

Poplar Thicket

5x $0.60

Copperflage

2x $0.85

↓

Possible Outputs

Breakthrough

15.0% $26.93

Sheet Lightning

35.0% $17.68

Trace Lock

15.0% $14.65

Glockingbird

35.0% $11.97

Max Win

$26.93 (+83.4%)

EV (ROI %)

$16.61 (+13.2%)

Win %

50.0%

Volatility

+33.7%

Cost

$14.68

Age —

Financials

Total Cost $14.68

Ask Price EV $16.61 (+13.2%)

Bid Price EV $16.03 (+9.2%)

Ask Profit $1.93 (+13.2%)

Bid Profit $1.35 (+9.2%)

Liquidity Gap $0.59 (+4.0%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.93

Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.35

Risk

Win Probability 50.0%

Loss Probability 50.0%

Best Case $26.93 (+83.4%)

Worst Case $11.97 (-18.5%)

Volatility +33.7%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 0.00%

Avg Win +$5.77

Avg Loss -$1.91

Bottom 5% Outcome $11.97 (-18.5%)

Std Dev $4.95

Avg Norm Float 0.0929

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 19m

Oldest Output Price 8h 44m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Edge

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

P2000 | Grip Tape

—

Minimal Wear

$0.81 Float: HIDDEN

P90 | Aeolian Light

—

Factory New

$2.11 Float: HIDDEN

Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle

—

Factory New

$3.00 Float: HIDDEN

MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket

—

Minimal Wear

$0.60 Float: HIDDEN

MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket

—

Minimal Wear

$0.71 Float: HIDDEN

XM1014 | Copperflage

—

Minimal Wear

$0.85 Float: HIDDEN

XM1014 | Copperflage

—

Minimal Wear

$0.88 Float: HIDDEN

MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket

—

Minimal Wear

$0.97 Float: HIDDEN

MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket

—

Factory New

$1.53 Float: HIDDEN

MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket

—

Factory New

$3.22 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 00M 38S //TOTAL COST $14.68 //ASK PRICE EV $16.61 //BID PRICE EV $16.03 //ASK PROFIT $1.93 (+13.2%) //BID PROFIT $1.35 (+9.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $26.93 //VOLATILITY +33.7% //

Possible Outputs · 4

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 3,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 7,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.35,
      "output_float": 0.0622631,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-27a242e44f6b",
      "realistic_value": 11.967,
      "optimistic_value": 11.96,
      "output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird",
      "conservative_value": 11.68,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:36.791950Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a242e44f6b.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.35,
      "output_float": 0.0696975,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-25e2a5c0a7df",
      "realistic_value": 17.6815,
      "optimistic_value": 17.65,
      "output_full_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning",
      "conservative_value": 17.06,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:01:28.231952Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25e2a5c0a7df.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.15,
      "output_float": 0.0696975,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
      "realistic_value": 26.926499999999997,
      "optimistic_value": 26.72,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
      "conservative_value": 26.63,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:41:55.655672Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.15,
      "output_float": 0.065051,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
      "realistic_value": 14.653500000000001,
      "optimistic_value": 14.65,
      "output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
      "conservative_value": 13.16,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:12.706591Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_5277fbc570333455bf07d483",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.81,
      "skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
      "listing_id": "515242588555657465",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:25:49.653002Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.11,
      "skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
      "listing_id": "510738989040662074",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
      "name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:13:54.871584Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3,
      "skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
      "listing_id": "506235389469302484",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:17:43.632805Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.6,
      "skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
      "listing_id": "509613089305639647",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:18:30.128809Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.71,
      "skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
      "listing_id": "509613089303443359",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:18:30.128809Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.85,
      "skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
      "listing_id": "524248990822512231",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:20:53.545345Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.88,
      "skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
      "listing_id": "649222707046030432",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:20:53.545345Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.97,
      "skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
      "listing_id": "516368322946009778",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:18:30.128809Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.53,
      "skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
      "listing_id": "493850490550488376",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
      "name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:06:31.116380Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.22,
      "skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
      "listing_id": "512990623223766251",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
      "name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:06:31.116380Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:3+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:7"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 35.0% $5.26 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.28 Glockingbird 35.0% $3.88	$12.25 +170.3%	$5.68 +25.4%	50.0%	+62.2%	$4.53	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Achroma Collection ×8+The Boreal Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Breakthrough 40.0% $26.93 Sheet Lightning 10.0% $17.68 Trace Lock 40.0% $14.71 Glockingbird 10.0% $11.77	$26.93 +68.0%	$19.60 +22.3%	50.0%	+38.2%	$16.03	—
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 30.0% $5.26 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.34 Glockingbird 30.0% $3.92	$12.25 +146.4%	$6.07 +22.2%	50.0%	+63.0%	$4.97	—
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Breakthrough 10.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 40.0% $5.25 Trace Lock 10.0% $4.24 Glockingbird 40.0% $3.83	$12.25 +175.2%	$5.28 +18.7%	50.0%	+54.1%	$4.45	—
The Achroma Collection ×1+The Boreal Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Breakthrough 5.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 45.0% $5.25 Trace Lock 5.0% $4.24 Glockingbird 45.0% $3.83	$12.25 +186.8%	$4.91 +15.0%	50.0%	+42.5%	$4.27	—