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The Achroma Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Factory New -19.8%Field-Tested +22.4%Minimal Wear +12.9%Well-Worn -15.9%
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Aeolian Light
P90 | Aeolian Light
1x $0.94
Creep
AUG | Creep
1x $1.43
The Daily Deagle
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
1x $3.00
Poplar Thicket
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
6x $0.71
Copperflage
XM1014 | Copperflage
1x $0.85
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
AK-47 | Breakthrough
15.0% $26.93
Sheet Lightning
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning
35.0% $17.71
Trace Lock
Glock-18 | Trace Lock
15.0% $14.36
Glockingbird
Glock-18 | Glockingbird
35.0% $11.77
Max Win
$26.93 (+30.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$16.51 (-19.8%)
Win %
15.0%
Volatility
+24.5%
Cost
$20.58
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $20.58
Ask Price EV $16.51 (-19.8%)
Bid Price EV $16.03 (-22.1%)
Ask Profit $-4.07 (-19.8%)
Bid Profit $-4.55 (-22.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.48 (+2.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$4.07
Bid Slippage Buffer -$4.55
Risk
Win Probability 15.0%
Loss Probability 85.0%
Best Case $26.93 (+30.8%)
Worst Case $11.77 (-42.8%)
Volatility +24.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$6.35
Avg Loss -$5.91
Bottom 5% Outcome $11.77 (-42.8%)
Std Dev $5.03
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 8h 43m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Sign in to Validate
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)
$0.94 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)
$1.43 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Factory New
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)
$3.00 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)
$0.71 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)
$0.97 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)
$3.22 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)
$3.68 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)
$4.25 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 54M 59S //TOTAL COST $20.58 //ASK PRICE EV $16.51 //BID PRICE EV $16.03 //ASK PROFIT $-4.07 (-19.8%) //BID PROFIT $-4.55 (-22.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 15.0% //BEST CASE $26.93 //VOLATILITY +24.5% //
Possible Outputs · 4
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Click Spin to start.
Latest Result
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Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.
Raw payload (JSON) 
{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 3,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 7,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.35,
      "output_float": 0.0467995,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-27a242e44f6b",
      "realistic_value": 11.7715,
      "optimistic_value": 11.67,
      "output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird",
      "conservative_value": 11.66,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:36.791950Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a242e44f6b.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.35,
      "output_float": 0.0523875,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-25e2a5c0a7df",
      "realistic_value": 17.712,
      "optimistic_value": 17.67,
      "output_full_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning",
      "conservative_value": 17.08,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:01:28.231952Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25e2a5c0a7df.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.15,
      "output_float": 0.0523875,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
      "realistic_value": 26.926499999999997,
      "optimistic_value": 26.72,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
      "conservative_value": 26.63,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:41:55.655672Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.15,
      "output_float": 0.048894999999999994,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
      "realistic_value": 14.3615,
      "optimistic_value": 14.12,
      "output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
      "conservative_value": 13.16,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:12.706591Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_5277fbc570333455bf07d483",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.94,
      "skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
      "listing_id": "518620288313427412",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:09:11.044930Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.43,
      "skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
      "listing_id": "507361289453312365",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "AUG | Creep",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:17:55.759890Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3,
      "skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
      "listing_id": "506235389469302484",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:17:43.632805Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.71,
      "skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
      "listing_id": "509613089303443359",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:18:30.128809Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.85,
      "skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
      "listing_id": "524248990822512231",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:20:53.545345Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.97,
      "skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
      "listing_id": "516368322946009778",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:18:30.128809Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.53,
      "skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
      "listing_id": "493850490550488376",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
      "name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:06:31.116380Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.22,
      "skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
      "listing_id": "512990623223766251",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
      "name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:06:31.116380Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.68,
      "skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
      "listing_id": "517493591330950090",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
      "name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:06:31.116380Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 4.25,
      "skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
      "listing_id": "508486392204111326",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
      "name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:06:31.116380Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:3+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:7"
}
Related

Related contracts

Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Breakthrough
AK-47 | Breakthrough
15.0% $12.25
Sheet Lightning
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning
35.0% $5.26
Trace Lock
Glock-18 | Trace Lock
15.0% $4.43
Glockingbird
Glock-18 | Glockingbird
35.0% $3.92
$12.25
+162.2%
$5.72
+22.4%
50.0%+60.0%$4.67—
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Breakthrough
AK-47 | Breakthrough
15.0% $26.93
Sheet Lightning
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning
35.0% $17.71
Trace Lock
Glock-18 | Trace Lock
15.0% $14.36
Glockingbird
Glock-18 | Glockingbird
35.0% $11.77
$26.93
+84.2%
$16.51
+12.9%
50.0%+34.4%$14.62—
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Achroma Collection ×8+The Boreal Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Breakthrough
AK-47 | Breakthrough
40.0% $26.93
Sheet Lightning
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning
10.0% $17.68
Trace Lock
Glock-18 | Trace Lock
40.0% $14.71
Glockingbird
Glock-18 | Glockingbird
10.0% $11.77
$26.93
+68.0%
$19.60
+22.3%
50.0%+38.2%$16.03—
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Breakthrough
AK-47 | Breakthrough
20.0% $12.25
Sheet Lightning
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning
30.0% $5.26
Trace Lock
Glock-18 | Trace Lock
20.0% $4.34
Glockingbird
Glock-18 | Glockingbird
30.0% $3.92
$12.25
+146.4%
$6.07
+22.2%
50.0%+63.0%$4.97—
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Breakthrough
AK-47 | Breakthrough
10.0% $12.25
Sheet Lightning
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning
40.0% $5.25
Trace Lock
Glock-18 | Trace Lock
10.0% $4.24
Glockingbird
Glock-18 | Glockingbird
40.0% $3.83
$12.25
+175.2%
$5.28
+18.7%
50.0%+54.1%$4.45—
The Achroma Collection ×1+The Boreal Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Breakthrough
AK-47 | Breakthrough
5.0% $12.25
Sheet Lightning
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning
45.0% $5.25
Trace Lock
Glock-18 | Trace Lock
5.0% $4.24
Glockingbird
Glock-18 | Glockingbird
45.0% $3.83
$12.25
+186.8%
$4.91
+15.0%
50.0%+42.5%$4.27—
FS

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