The Achroma Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Aeolian Light
2x $0.35
Grip Tape
1x $0.85
Gold Leaf
2x $0.18
Copperflage
3x $0.40
Poplar Thicket
2x $0.43
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
15.0% $12.25
Sheet Lightning
35.0% $5.28
Trace Lock
15.0% $4.62
Glockingbird
35.0% $3.72
Max Win
$12.25 (+172.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$5.68 (+26.2%)
Win %
65.0%
Volatility
+63.0%
Cost
$4.50
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.50
Ask Price EV $5.68 (+26.2%)
Bid Price EV $5.25 (+16.7%)
Ask Profit $1.18 (+26.2%)
Bid Profit $0.75 (+16.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.43 (+9.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.18
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.75
Risk
Win Probability 65.0%
Loss Probability 35.0%
Best Case $12.25 (+172.1%)
Worst Case $3.72 (-17.4%)
Volatility +63.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 0.00%
Avg Win +$2.24
Avg Loss -$0.78
Bottom 5% Outcome $3.72 (-17.4%)
Std Dev $2.83
Avg Norm Float 0.1999
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 146h 19m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Field-Tested
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.74 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Copperflage
—
Minimal Wear
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 49M 30S //TOTAL COST $4.50 //ASK PRICE EV $5.68 //BID PRICE EV $5.25 //ASK PROFIT $1.18 (+26.2%) //BID PROFIT $0.75 (+16.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 65.0% //BEST CASE $12.25 //VOLATILITY +63.0% //
Possible Outputs · 4
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
15.0%
$12.25
+$7.75
+172.1%
$11.36
+$6.86
+152.4%
$0.89
7.2%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
35.0%
$5.28
+$0.78
+17.4%
$5.07
+$0.57
+12.7%
$0.21
4.0%
—
PAPER WIN
15.0%
$4.62
+$0.12
+2.7%
$4.10
-$0.40
-8.9%
$0.52
11.2%
—
LOSS
35.0%
$3.72
-$0.78
-17.4%
$3.31
-$1.19
-26.4%
$0.41
11.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.13393970000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a242e44f6b",
"realistic_value": 3.7175,
"optimistic_value": 3.63,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird",
"conservative_value": 3.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:19:55.575002Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a242e44f6b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.1499325,
"output_skin_id": "skin-25e2a5c0a7df",
"realistic_value": 5.2815,
"optimistic_value": 5.25,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning",
"conservative_value": 5.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:15:01.347684Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25e2a5c0a7df.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.1499325,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 12.245000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 12.14,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 11.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:04:15.007591Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.139937,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 4.6194999999999995,
"optimistic_value": 4.56,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 4.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:07:28.225288Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_5277fbc570333455bf07d483",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "492724590627026673",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:05:12.808620Z"
},
{
"price": 0.74,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "519746188259262644",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:22:19.734547Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "645845616400426977",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:15:02.931772Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "496102290328703183",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:15:53.037044Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "514116523133772618",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:15:53.037044Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "516368488726166090",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:10:17.035789Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "514116688949135922",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:10:17.035789Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"listing_id": "512990789045074739",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:10:17.035789Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "523123888072572238",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:07:46.495656Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "645845616400983825",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:07:46.495656Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:3+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Breakthrough 15.0% $26.93 Sheet Lightning 35.0% $17.71 Trace Lock 15.0% $14.32 Glockingbird 35.0% $11.77 | $26.93 +87.2% | $16.51 +14.8% | 50.0% | +35.0% | $14.38 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×6+The Boreal Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 20.0% $5.29 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.62 Glockingbird 20.0% $3.72 | $12.25 +130.6% | $6.86 +29.2% | 30.0% | +67.1% | $5.31 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 20.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 30.0% $5.28 Trace Lock 20.0% $4.62 Glockingbird 30.0% $3.86 | $12.25 +156.2% | $6.12 +28.0% | 50.0% | +65.1% | $4.78 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 25.0% $5.28 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.62 Glockingbird 25.0% $3.86 | $12.25 +139.6% | $6.50 +27.3% | 50.0% | +65.6% | $5.11 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×7+The Boreal Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 15.0% $5.28 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.62 Glockingbird 15.0% $3.86 | $12.25 +109.7% | $7.27 +24.6% | 35.0% | +62.8% | $5.84 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×8+The Boreal Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 10.0% $5.26 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.69 Glockingbird 10.0% $3.86 | $12.25 +94.1% | $7.69 +21.8% | 40.0% | +59.2% | $6.31 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 10.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 40.0% $5.26 Trace Lock 10.0% $4.69 Glockingbird 40.0% $3.86 | $12.25 +176.4% | $5.35 +20.7% | 60.0% | +53.8% | $4.43 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×9+The Boreal Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 5.0% $5.28 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.62 Glockingbird 5.0% $3.86 | $12.25 +77.5% | $8.05 +16.6% | 45.0% | +55.1% | $6.90 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×1+The Boreal Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 5.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 45.0% $5.26 Trace Lock 5.0% $4.69 Glockingbird 45.0% $3.86 | $12.25 +173.3% | $4.95 +10.6% | 55.0% | +40.2% | $4.48 | — |