The Recoil Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8
Restricted → Classified FN ST 10 items
Contract
Restricted → Classified Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Flora Carnivora
1x $3.45
Dragon Tech
1x $4.60
Urban Sovereign
5x $4.68
Amberline
1x $6.64
Galigator
2x $7.29
↓
Possible Outputs
Crane Flight
26.7% $290.04
Kintsugi
26.7% $65.51
Deathgaze
26.7% $61.47
Ice Coaled
6.7% $58.75
Kiss♥Love
6.7% $58.41
Visions
6.7% $20.65
Max Win
$290.04 (+224.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$120.39 (+34.5%)
Win %
26.7%
Volatility
+114.9%
Cost
$89.52
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $89.52
Ask Price EV $120.39 (+34.5%)
Bid Price EV $97.60 (+9.0%)
Ask Profit $30.87 (+34.5%)
Bid Profit $8.08 (+9.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $22.79 (+25.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$30.87
Bid Slippage Buffer +$8.08
Risk
Win Probability 26.7%
Loss Probability 73.3%
Best Case $290.04 (+224.0%)
Worst Case $20.65 (-76.9%)
Volatility +114.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 73.3%
Avg Win +$200.52
Avg Loss -$30.82
Bottom 5% Outcome $20.65 (-76.9%)
Std Dev $102.85
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 141h 14m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora
—
Minimal Wear
$3.45 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Dragon Tech
—
Factory New
$4.60 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$4.68 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$5.40 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Minimal Wear
$6.64 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Galigator
—
Minimal Wear
$7.29 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Galigator
—
Minimal Wear
$9.00 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$15.30 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$15.50 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$17.66 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 34M 09S //TOTAL COST $89.52 //ASK PRICE EV $120.39 //BID PRICE EV $97.60 //ASK PROFIT $30.87 (+34.5%) //BID PROFIT $8.08 (+9.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 26.7% //BEST CASE $290.04 //VOLATILITY +114.9% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
26.7%
$290.04
+$200.52
+224.0%
$229.11
+$139.59
+155.9%
$60.93
21.0%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
26.7%
$65.51
-$24.01
-26.8%
$55.11
-$34.41
-38.4%
$10.40
15.9%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
26.7%
$61.47
-$28.05
-31.3%
$55.38
-$34.14
-38.1%
$6.09
9.9%
—
LOSS
6.7%
$58.75
-$30.77
-34.4%
$50.38
-$39.14
-43.7%
$8.37
14.2%
—
LOSS THIN BID EDGE FLOAT
6.7%
$58.41
-$31.11
-34.8%
$35.32
-$54.20
-60.5%
$23.09
39.5%
—
NUKE
6.7%
$20.65
-$68.87
-76.9%
$19.95
-$69.57
-77.7%
$0.70
3.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-31|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.06989,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
"realistic_value": 290.0445,
"optimistic_value": 279.45,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
"conservative_value": 229.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:40.031809Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.06989,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
"realistic_value": 65.5065,
"optimistic_value": 64.74,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
"conservative_value": 55.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:45.715369Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.06989,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
"realistic_value": 61.465999999999994,
"optimistic_value": 59.66,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
"conservative_value": 55.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:58.530181Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.053815299999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f10cd3871578",
"realistic_value": 58.751000000000005,
"optimistic_value": 58.24,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Ice Coaled",
"conservative_value": 50.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:43:50.491623Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f10cd3871578.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.048922999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f1071439b89",
"realistic_value": 20.648500000000002,
"optimistic_value": 19.98,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Visions",
"conservative_value": 19.95,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Visions (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:33:06.512083Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f1071439b89.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.06989,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f81f65a9d91",
"realistic_value": 58.41,
"optimistic_value": 54.98,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love",
"conservative_value": 35.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:33:16.568401Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f81f65a9d91.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_51a83cd3591beab7fa3fd460",
"input_rarity": "Restricted",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 3.45,
"skin_id": "skin-459ac0342b48",
"listing_id": "521997191220886422",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-459ac0342b48.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:45:32.141159Z"
},
{
"price": 4.6,
"skin_id": "skin-9acc418fe0ad",
"listing_id": "519746135815517156",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9acc418fe0ad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:50:47.857886Z"
},
{
"price": 4.68,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "529879287551222028",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:46.257285Z"
},
{
"price": 5.4,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "506235337025176368",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:46.257285Z"
},
{
"price": 6.64,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "492724538182346589",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:38:01.068828Z"
},
{
"price": 7.29,
"skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"listing_id": "524249787960966687",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:45.158952Z"
},
{
"price": 9,
"skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"listing_id": "496102237883506139",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:45.158952Z"
},
{
"price": 15.3,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "518619491430346084",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:53.211943Z"
},
{
"price": 15.5,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "496101493270757831",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:53.211943Z"
},
{
"price": 17.66,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "506234592361187964",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:35:53.211943Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Classified",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-31:2+collection-set-community-37:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 26.7% $63.86 Ice Coaled 6.7% $16.45 Kintsugi 26.7% $12.65 Deathgaze 26.7% $11.91 Visions 6.7% $6.87 Kiss♥Love 6.7% $6.54 | $63.86 +197.6% | $25.57 +19.2% | 26.7% | +108.1% | $21.46 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear ST | Crane Flight 26.7% $126.41 Ice Coaled 6.7% $28.04 Kintsugi 26.7% $22.62 Deathgaze 26.7% $20.41 Kiss♥Love 6.7% $13.48 Visions 6.7% $10.49 | $126.41 +192.3% | $48.65 +12.5% | 26.7% | +108.8% | $43.25 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 30.0% $290.04 Kintsugi 30.0% $65.51 Deathgaze 30.0% $61.47 Ice Coaled 3.3% $58.75 Kiss♥Love 3.3% $58.41 Visions 3.3% $20.65 | $290.04 +200.6% | $129.70 +34.4% | 30.0% | +109.1% | $96.49 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 23.3% $290.04 Kintsugi 23.3% $65.51 Deathgaze 23.3% $61.47 Ice Coaled 10.0% $58.75 Kiss♥Love 10.0% $58.41 Visions 10.0% $20.65 | $290.04 +248.7% | $111.08 +33.6% | 23.3% | +119.6% | $83.17 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 20.0% $290.04 Kintsugi 20.0% $65.51 Deathgaze 20.0% $61.47 Ice Coaled 13.3% $58.75 Kiss♥Love 13.3% $58.41 Visions 13.3% $20.65 | $290.04 +270.0% | $101.78 +29.8% | 20.0% | +121.4% | $78.40 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 16.7% $290.04 Kintsugi 16.7% $65.51 Deathgaze 16.7% $61.47 Ice Coaled 16.7% $58.75 Kiss♥Love 16.7% $58.41 Visions 16.7% $20.65 | $290.04 +295.8% | $92.47 +26.2% | 16.7% | +122.3% | $73.28 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 13.3% $63.86 Ice Coaled 20.0% $16.45 Kintsugi 13.3% $12.65 Deathgaze 13.3% $11.91 Visions 20.0% $6.87 Kiss♥Love 20.0% $6.54 | $63.86 +341.0% | $17.76 +22.7% | 33.3% | +127.5% | $14.48 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 10.0% $63.86 Ice Coaled 23.3% $16.45 Kintsugi 10.0% $12.65 Deathgaze 10.0% $11.91 Visions 23.3% $6.87 Kiss♥Love 23.3% $6.54 | $63.86 +386.0% | $15.81 +20.3% | 33.3% | +125.6% | $13.14 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×8+The Dead Hand Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 6.7% $63.86 Ice Coaled 26.7% $16.45 Kintsugi 6.7% $12.65 Deathgaze 6.7% $11.91 Visions 26.7% $6.87 Kiss♥Love 26.7% $6.54 | $63.86 +426.0% | $13.86 +14.1% | 40.0% | +115.4% | $12.14 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×9+The Dead Hand Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 3.3% $63.86 Ice Coaled 30.0% $16.45 Kintsugi 3.3% $12.65 Deathgaze 3.3% $11.91 Visions 30.0% $6.87 Kiss♥Love 30.0% $6.54 | $63.86 +462.1% | $11.91 +4.8% | 40.0% | +93.3% | $11.36 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Electrum  18.0% $10.69 Firebreathing  18.0% $6.12 Galigator 18.0% $3.26 Amberline 18.0% $3.21 Urban Sovereign 18.0% $3.19 Crazy 8  2.0% $1.16 | $10.69 +185.9% | $4.87 +30.2% | 36.0% | +76.2% | $3.74 | — |