The Recoil Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8
Restricted → Classified MW ST 10 items
Contract
Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear StatTrak™
Inputs
Vent Rush
1x $1.84
Dragon Tech
1x $2.01
Amberline
2x $3.18
Urban Sovereign
6x $3.19
↓
Possible Outputs
Crane Flight
26.7% $126.41
Ice Coaled
6.7% $28.04
Kintsugi
26.7% $22.62
Deathgaze
26.7% $21.23
Kiss♥Love
6.7% $13.55
Visions
6.7% $10.49
Max Win
$126.41 (+210.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$48.87 (+19.9%)
Win %
26.7%
Volatility
+115.1%
Cost
$40.75
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $40.75
Ask Price EV $48.87 (+19.9%)
Bid Price EV $43.82 (+7.5%)
Ask Profit $8.12 (+19.9%)
Bid Profit $3.07 (+7.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $5.05 (+12.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$8.12
Bid Slippage Buffer +$3.07
Risk
Win Probability 26.7%
Loss Probability 73.3%
Best Case $126.41 (+210.2%)
Worst Case $10.49 (-74.3%)
Volatility +115.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 73.3%
Avg Win +$85.66
Avg Loss -$20.07
Bottom 5% Outcome $10.49 (-74.3%)
Std Dev $46.92
Avg Norm Float 0.1498
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 9m
Oldest Output Price 142h 5m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P90 | Vent Rush
—
Minimal Wear
$1.84 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Dragon Tech
—
Minimal Wear
$2.01 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Field-Tested
$3.18 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Field-Tested
$3.19 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Field-Tested
$3.64 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$4.72 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$4.75 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$5.38 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$5.40 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Minimal Wear
$6.64 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 37M 03S //TOTAL COST $40.75 //ASK PRICE EV $48.87 //BID PRICE EV $43.82 //ASK PROFIT $8.12 (+19.9%) //BID PROFIT $3.07 (+7.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 26.7% //BEST CASE $126.41 //VOLATILITY +115.1% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
26.7%
$126.41
+$85.66
+210.2%
$112.39
+$71.64
+175.8%
$14.02
11.1%
—
LOSS
6.7%
$28.04
-$12.71
-31.2%
$26.70
-$14.05
-34.5%
$1.34
4.8%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
26.7%
$22.62
-$18.13
-44.5%
$20.66
-$20.09
-49.3%
$1.96
8.7%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
26.7%
$21.23
-$19.52
-47.9%
$19.38
-$21.37
-52.4%
$1.85
8.7%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.7%
$13.55
-$27.20
-66.8%
$11.47
-$29.28
-71.9%
$2.08
15.3%
—
NUKE
6.7%
$10.49
-$30.26
-74.3%
$9.44
-$31.31
-76.8%
$1.05
10.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-31|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.1498,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
"realistic_value": 126.41149999999999,
"optimistic_value": 124,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
"conservative_value": 112.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:44.452841Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.1498,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
"realistic_value": 22.619999999999997,
"optimistic_value": 22.2,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
"conservative_value": 20.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:59.086341Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.1498,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
"realistic_value": 21.23,
"optimistic_value": 20.6,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
"conservative_value": 19.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:59.001396Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.11534599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f10cd3871578",
"realistic_value": 28.0425,
"optimistic_value": 27.43,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Ice Coaled",
"conservative_value": 26.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:51:02.963268Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f10cd3871578.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.10485999999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f1071439b89",
"realistic_value": 10.488,
"optimistic_value": 10.04,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Visions",
"conservative_value": 9.44,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Visions (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:01.108419Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f1071439b89.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.1498,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f81f65a9d91",
"realistic_value": 13.5465,
"optimistic_value": 13.41,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love",
"conservative_value": 11.47,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Recoil Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:38:50.755249Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f81f65a9d91.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_51a83cd3591beab7fa3fd460",
"input_rarity": "Restricted",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.84,
"skin_id": "skin-e2b145a9faa7",
"listing_id": "507361289452955317",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Vent Rush (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Vent Rush",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e2b145a9faa7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:54:14.737040Z"
},
{
"price": 2.01,
"skin_id": "skin-9acc418fe0ad",
"listing_id": "527627435180342312",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-31",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Dragon Tech",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9acc418fe0ad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:57.678438Z"
},
{
"price": 3.18,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "502857689861474128",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:48:59.510287Z"
},
{
"price": 3.19,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "493850490550002916",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:57.565913Z"
},
{
"price": 3.64,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "498354037510570279",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:57.565913Z"
},
{
"price": 4.72,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "500605889840023871",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:59.257802Z"
},
{
"price": 4.75,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "521997988014719718",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:59.257802Z"
},
{
"price": 5.38,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "500605837398261191",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:59.257802Z"
},
{
"price": 5.4,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "506235337025176368",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:59.257802Z"
},
{
"price": 6.64,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "492724538182346589",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:49:14.354664Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Classified",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-31:2+collection-set-community-37:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 26.7% $63.86 Ice Coaled 6.7% $16.45 Kintsugi 26.7% $12.65 Deathgaze 26.7% $10.67 Visions 6.7% $6.87 Kiss♥Love 6.7% $6.54 | $63.86 +197.3% | $25.24 +17.5% | 26.7% | +108.9% | $21.48 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 23.3% $290.04 Kintsugi 23.3% $65.51 Deathgaze 23.3% $61.47 Ice Coaled 10.0% $58.75 Kiss♥Love 10.0% $58.41 Visions 10.0% $20.65 | $290.04 +248.7% | $111.08 +33.6% | 23.3% | +119.6% | $83.17 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 20.0% $290.04 Kintsugi 20.0% $65.51 Deathgaze 20.0% $61.47 Ice Coaled 13.3% $58.75 Kiss♥Love 13.3% $58.41 Visions 13.3% $20.65 | $290.04 +270.0% | $101.78 +29.8% | 20.0% | +121.4% | $78.40 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight 16.7% $290.04 Kintsugi 16.7% $65.51 Deathgaze 16.7% $61.47 Ice Coaled 16.7% $58.75 Kiss♥Love 16.7% $58.41 Visions 16.7% $20.65 | $290.04 +295.6% | $92.47 +26.1% | 16.7% | +122.2% | $73.32 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 13.3% $63.86 Ice Coaled 20.0% $16.45 Kintsugi 13.3% $12.65 Deathgaze 13.3% $11.91 Visions 20.0% $6.87 Kiss♥Love 20.0% $6.54 | $63.86 +341.0% | $17.76 +22.7% | 33.3% | +127.5% | $14.48 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 10.0% $63.86 Ice Coaled 23.3% $16.45 Kintsugi 10.0% $12.65 Deathgaze 10.0% $11.91 Visions 23.3% $6.87 Kiss♥Love 23.3% $6.54 | $63.86 +392.4% | $15.81 +21.9% | 33.3% | +127.2% | $12.97 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×8+The Dead Hand Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 6.7% $63.86 Ice Coaled 26.7% $16.45 Kintsugi 6.7% $12.65 Deathgaze 6.7% $11.91 Visions 26.7% $6.87 Kiss♥Love 26.7% $6.54 | $63.86 +426.0% | $13.86 +14.1% | 40.0% | +115.4% | $12.14 | — |
The Recoil Collection ×9+The Dead Hand Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Crane Flight 3.3% $63.86 Ice Coaled 30.0% $16.45 Kintsugi 3.3% $12.65 Deathgaze 3.3% $11.91 Visions 30.0% $6.87 Kiss♥Love 30.0% $6.54 | $63.86 +480.5% | $11.91 +8.2% | 40.0% | +96.4% | $11.00 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Recoil Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Electrum  16.0% $10.69 Firebreathing  16.0% $6.12 Galigator  16.0% $3.26 Amberline 16.0% $3.22 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $3.19 Crazy 8  4.0% $1.16 | $10.69 +216.4% | $4.45 +31.6% | 32.0% | +82.8% | $3.38 | — |