The Fracture Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Ultralight
2x $0.12
Runic
2x $0.13
Yeti Camo
2x $0.26
Cobalt Paisley
2x $0.31
Reef Grief
2x $0.36
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
30.0% $6.93
Royal Guard
30.0% $1.26
Connexion
8.0% $0.73
Monster Call
8.0% $0.67
Kitbash
8.0% $0.65
Allure
8.0% $0.63
Max Win
$6.93 (+176.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.72 (+8.4%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+110.3%
Cost
$2.51
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $2.51
Ask Price EV $2.72 (+8.4%)
Bid Price EV $2.34 (-6.8%)
Ask Profit $0.21 (+8.4%)
Bid Profit $-0.17 (-6.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.38 (+15.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.21
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.17
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $6.93 (+176.1%)
Worst Case $0.61 (-75.8%)
Volatility +110.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 70.0%
Avg Win +$4.42
Avg Loss -$1.59
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.61 (-75.8%)
Std Dev $2.77
Avg Norm Float 0.4326
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 154h 15m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Negev | Ultralight
—
Field-Tested
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Ultralight
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Well-Worn
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Well-Worn
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Field-Tested
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Field-Tested
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 09M 45S //TOTAL COST $2.51 //ASK PRICE EV $2.72 //BID PRICE EV $2.34 //ASK PROFIT $0.21 (+8.4%) //BID PROFIT $-0.17 (-6.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $6.93 //VOLATILITY +110.3% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
30.0%
$6.93
+$4.42
+176.1%
$5.76
+$3.25
+129.5%
$1.17
16.9%
—
NUKE
30.0%
$1.26
-$1.25
-49.8%
$1.24
-$1.27
-50.6%
$0.02
1.7%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.73
-$1.78
-70.9%
$0.63
-$1.88
-74.9%
$0.10
13.7%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.67
-$1.84
-73.3%
$0.59
-$1.92
-76.5%
$0.08
12.0%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.65
-$1.86
-74.2%
$0.61
-$1.90
-75.7%
$0.04
5.9%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.63
-$1.88
-75.0%
$0.58
-$1.93
-76.9%
$0.05
7.6%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.61
-$1.90
-75.8%
$0.57
-$1.94
-77.3%
$0.04
6.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.3244875,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 6.931,
"optimistic_value": 6.84,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 5.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:06:18.798970Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.25959,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 1.2610000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 1.24,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 1.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:15:49.298707Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.34612,
"output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"realistic_value": 0.73,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"conservative_value": 0.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Connexion (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:54:20.493500Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.43265,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"realistic_value": 0.6275,
"optimistic_value": 0.61,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"conservative_value": 0.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Allure (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:10:08.390986Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.43265,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"realistic_value": 0.6705,
"optimistic_value": 0.66,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"conservative_value": 0.59,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:49:03.275213Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.34612,
"output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"realistic_value": 0.648,
"optimistic_value": 0.62,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"conservative_value": 0.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:08:09.156092Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.43265,
"output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
"realistic_value": 0.6074999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.59,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
"conservative_value": 0.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Brother (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:59:58.191402Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_4fcd0d9755e8b4b4ad14aa3f",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "524249840859889947",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Ultralight (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:57:06.300761Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "521998040963244966",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Field-Tested)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:02:35.653737Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "497228137695265325",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Ultralight (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:57:06.300761Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "503983537176426151",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Field-Tested)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:02:35.653737Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "514116688950783354",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:21:01.649746Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "509613142168236027",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:21:26.530223Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "492724538182088361",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:21:01.649746Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "493850490550033732",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:21:26.530223Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "509613142168612335",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:05:17.041196Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "503983642533425455",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:05:17.041196Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-26:4+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 30.0% $5.56 Allure 8.0% $0.74 Connexion 8.0% $0.73 Brother 8.0% $0.73 Monster Call 8.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +209.5% | $7.38 +26.3% | 30.0% | +120.4% | $5.84 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 30.0% $13.27 Allure 8.0% $1.81 Monster Call 8.0% $1.59 Brother 8.0% $1.54 Connexion 8.0% $1.34 | $38.92 +174.1% | $16.26 +14.5% | 30.0% | +105.8% | $14.20 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 20.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 20.0% $5.56 Allure 12.0% $0.74 Connexion 12.0% $0.72 Brother 12.0% $0.72 Monster Call 12.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +372.0% | $5.16 +34.7% | 40.0% | +170.9% | $3.83 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 15.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 15.0% $5.56 Allure 14.0% $0.74 Connexion 14.0% $0.73 Brother 14.0% $0.73 Monster Call 14.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +498.6% | $4.04 +33.9% | 30.0% | +198.8% | $3.02 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 25.0% $5.56 Allure 10.0% $0.74 Brother 10.0% $0.73 Connexion 10.0% $0.72 Monster Call 10.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +268.2% | $6.26 +27.6% | 50.0% | +140.0% | $4.91 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 35.0% $5.56 Allure 6.0% $0.74 Connexion 6.0% $0.73 Brother 6.0% $0.73 Monster Call 6.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +159.3% | $8.49 +21.8% | 35.0% | +101.1% | $6.97 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×8+The Ascent Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 10.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 10.0% $5.56 Allure 16.0% $0.74 Connexion 16.0% $0.73 Brother 16.0% $0.73 Monster Call 16.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +650.1% | $2.93 +21.7% | 20.0% | +214.6% | $2.41 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.27 Allure 2.0% $1.70 Monster Call 2.0% $1.59 Brother 2.0% $1.54 Connexion 2.0% $1.34 | $38.92 +98.5% | $23.63 +20.5% | 45.0% | +70.8% | $19.61 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $6.94 Royal Guard 40.0% $1.18 Kitbash 4.0% $0.71 Brother 4.0% $0.70 Connexion 4.0% $0.70 Allure 4.0% $0.69 | $6.94 +145.4% | $3.39 +19.7% | 40.0% | +101.0% | $2.83 | — |