The Fracture Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Ultralight
2x $0.53
Ol' Rusty
1x $0.88
Runic
1x $1.63
Royal Baroque
3x $1.44
Reef Grief
3x $2.04
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
30.0% $38.92
Royal Guard
30.0% $13.27
Brother
8.0% $11.36
Allure
8.0% $8.88
Monster Call
8.0% $8.24
Connexion
8.0% $7.01
Max Win
$38.92 (+95.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$18.94 (-5.0%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+66.7%
Cost
$19.94
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $19.94
Ask Price EV $18.94 (-5.0%)
Bid Price EV $17.49 (-12.3%)
Ask Profit $-1.00 (-5.0%)
Bid Profit $-2.45 (-12.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.45 (+7.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.00
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.45
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $38.92 (+95.2%)
Worst Case $5.55 (-72.2%)
Volatility +66.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 70.0%
Avg Win +$18.98
Avg Loss -$9.56
Bottom 5% Outcome $5.55 (-72.2%)
Std Dev $13.30
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 106h 45m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Negev | Ultralight
—
Minimal Wear
$0.53 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty
—
Factory New
$0.88 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Ultralight
—
Factory New
$1.41 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Factory New
$1.63 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.44 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.57 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.04 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.08 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$3.71 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Factory New
$4.65 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 08M 56S //TOTAL COST $19.94 //ASK PRICE EV $18.94 //BID PRICE EV $17.49 //ASK PROFIT $-1.00 (-5.0%) //BID PROFIT $-2.45 (-12.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $38.92 //VOLATILITY +66.7% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
30.0%
$38.92
+$18.98
+95.2%
$34.38
+$14.44
+72.4%
$4.54
11.7%
—
LOSS
30.0%
$13.27
-$6.67
-33.5%
$13.08
-$6.86
-34.4%
$0.19
1.4%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$11.36
-$8.58
-43.0%
$11.24
-$8.70
-43.6%
$0.12
1.1%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$8.88
-$11.06
-55.5%
$8.83
-$11.11
-55.7%
$0.05
0.5%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$8.24
-$11.70
-58.7%
$8.13
-$11.81
-59.2%
$0.11
1.4%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$7.01
-$12.93
-64.8%
$6.99
-$12.95
-64.9%
$0.02
0.3%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$5.55
-$14.39
-72.2%
$5.49
-$14.45
-72.5%
$0.06
1.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.05244,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 38.922000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 38.81,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 34.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T03:35:43.246321Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.041951999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 13.27,
"optimistic_value": 13.13,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 13.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:32.144800Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.055936,
"output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"realistic_value": 7.01,
"optimistic_value": 7.01,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"conservative_value": 6.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Connexion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:05.560509Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"realistic_value": 8.876999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 8.87,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"conservative_value": 8.83,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Allure (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:57:04.871070Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"realistic_value": 8.243500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 8.24,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"conservative_value": 8.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:44.970318Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.055936,
"output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"realistic_value": 5.55,
"optimistic_value": 5.55,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"conservative_value": 5.49,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:56:40.594740Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
"realistic_value": 11.3595,
"optimistic_value": 11.3,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
"conservative_value": 11.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Brother (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:47:52.465252Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_4fcd0d9755e8b4b4ad14aa3f",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.53,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "661608215076176884",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Ultralight (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:59:01.712120Z"
},
{
"price": 0.88,
"skin_id": "skin-d4fffad08ab6",
"listing_id": "500605942756236815",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d4fffad08ab6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:54.754727Z"
},
{
"price": 1.41,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "507360492281933533",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Ultralight (Factory New)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:15:28.914502Z"
},
{
"price": 1.63,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "492724590627111633",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:58:57.697471Z"
},
{
"price": 1.44,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "652601015909084844",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:59:06.013534Z"
},
{
"price": 1.57,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "507361289452175017",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:59:06.013534Z"
},
{
"price": 2.04,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "506235442368331512",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:45.233264Z"
},
{
"price": 2.08,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "525375740886326767",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:45.233264Z"
},
{
"price": 3.71,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "634586617400715303",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:45.233264Z"
},
{
"price": 4.65,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "503983423966579591",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:47.241816Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-26:4+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 30.0% $5.56 Allure 8.0% $0.74 Connexion 8.0% $0.73 Brother 8.0% $0.73 Monster Call 8.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +209.5% | $7.38 +26.3% | 30.0% | +120.4% | $5.84 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 30.0% $13.27 Allure 8.0% $1.81 Monster Call 8.0% $1.59 Brother 8.0% $1.54 Connexion 8.0% $1.34 | $38.92 +174.1% | $16.26 +14.5% | 30.0% | +105.8% | $14.20 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $6.93 Royal Guard 30.0% $1.26 Connexion 8.0% $0.73 Monster Call 8.0% $0.67 Kitbash 8.0% $0.65 Allure 8.0% $0.63 | $6.93 +176.1% | $2.72 +8.4% | 30.0% | +107.7% | $2.51 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 20.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 20.0% $5.56 Allure 12.0% $0.74 Connexion 12.0% $0.72 Brother 12.0% $0.72 Monster Call 12.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +372.0% | $5.16 +34.7% | 40.0% | +170.9% | $3.83 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 15.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 15.0% $5.56 Allure 14.0% $0.74 Connexion 14.0% $0.73 Brother 14.0% $0.73 Monster Call 14.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +498.6% | $4.04 +33.9% | 30.0% | +198.8% | $3.02 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 25.0% $5.56 Allure 10.0% $0.74 Brother 10.0% $0.73 Connexion 10.0% $0.72 Monster Call 10.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +268.2% | $6.26 +27.6% | 50.0% | +140.0% | $4.91 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 35.0% $5.56 Allure 6.0% $0.74 Connexion 6.0% $0.73 Brother 6.0% $0.73 Monster Call 6.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +159.3% | $8.49 +21.8% | 35.0% | +101.1% | $6.97 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×8+The Ascent Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 10.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 10.0% $5.56 Allure 16.0% $0.74 Connexion 16.0% $0.73 Brother 16.0% $0.73 Monster Call 16.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +650.1% | $2.93 +21.7% | 20.0% | +214.6% | $2.41 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.27 Allure 2.0% $1.70 Monster Call 2.0% $1.59 Brother 2.0% $1.54 Connexion 2.0% $1.34 | $38.92 +98.5% | $23.63 +20.5% | 45.0% | +70.8% | $19.61 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $6.94 Royal Guard 40.0% $1.18 Kitbash 4.0% $0.71 Brother 4.0% $0.70 Connexion 4.0% $0.70 Allure 4.0% $0.69 | $6.94 +145.4% | $3.39 +19.7% | 40.0% | +101.0% | $2.83 | — |