The Fracture Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Ol' Rusty
2x $0.36
Mainframe 001
1x $0.41
Ultralight
1x $0.53
Cobalt Paisley
1x $1.18
Royal Baroque
2x $1.44
Reef Grief
3x $2.04
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
30.0% $38.92
Royal Guard
30.0% $13.27
Allure
8.0% $1.81
Monster Call
8.0% $1.59
Brother
8.0% $1.54
Connexion
8.0% $1.34
Max Win
$38.92 (+174.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$16.26 (+14.5%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+110.0%
Cost
$14.20
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $14.20
Ask Price EV $16.26 (+14.5%)
Bid Price EV $14.79 (+4.2%)
Ask Profit $2.06 (+14.5%)
Bid Profit $0.59 (+4.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.46 (+10.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$2.06
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.59
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $38.92 (+174.1%)
Worst Case $1.21 (-91.5%)
Volatility +110.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$24.72
Avg Loss -$7.66
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.21 (-91.5%)
Std Dev $15.62
Avg Norm Float 0.0933
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 106h 46m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Mainframe 001
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Ultralight
—
Minimal Wear
$0.53 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty
—
Factory New
$0.88 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Minimal Wear
$1.18 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.44 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.57 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.04 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.08 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$3.71 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 09M 45S //TOTAL COST $14.20 //ASK PRICE EV $16.26 //BID PRICE EV $14.79 //ASK PROFIT $2.06 (+14.5%) //BID PROFIT $0.59 (+4.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $38.92 //VOLATILITY +110.0% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$38.92
+$24.72
+174.1%
$34.38
+$20.18
+142.1%
$4.54
11.7%
—
LOSS
30.0%
$13.27
-$0.93
-6.5%
$13.08
-$1.12
-7.9%
$0.19
1.4%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.81
-$12.39
-87.2%
$1.54
-$12.66
-89.2%
$0.27
15.0%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.59
-$12.61
-88.8%
$1.53
-$12.67
-89.2%
$0.06
3.8%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.54
-$12.66
-89.2%
$1.53
-$12.67
-89.2%
$0.01
0.6%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.34
-$12.86
-90.6%
$1.23
-$12.97
-91.3%
$0.11
8.0%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.21
-$12.99
-91.5%
$1.12
-$13.08
-92.1%
$0.09
7.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.069945,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 38.922000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 38.81,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 34.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T03:35:43.246321Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.055956,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 13.27,
"optimistic_value": 13.13,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 13.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:32.144800Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.074608,
"output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"realistic_value": 1.337,
"optimistic_value": 1.33,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"conservative_value": 1.23,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Connexion (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:36.273464Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.09326,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"realistic_value": 1.8115,
"optimistic_value": 1.78,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"conservative_value": 1.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Allure (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:07:06.956327Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.09326,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"realistic_value": 1.5905,
"optimistic_value": 1.58,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"conservative_value": 1.53,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:21.410324Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.074608,
"output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"realistic_value": 1.2115,
"optimistic_value": 1.18,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"conservative_value": 1.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:03:59.741555Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.09326,
"output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
"realistic_value": 1.54,
"optimistic_value": 1.54,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
"conservative_value": 1.53,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Brother (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:04:16.724366Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_4fcd0d9755e8b4b4ad14aa3f",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-d4fffad08ab6",
"listing_id": "661608215057506024",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d4fffad08ab6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:10:29.960806Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-4bcbe71aa61d",
"listing_id": "511864836540298521",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Mainframe 001",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4bcbe71aa61d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:59:13.244984Z"
},
{
"price": 0.53,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "661608215076176884",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Ultralight (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:59:01.712120Z"
},
{
"price": 0.88,
"skin_id": "skin-d4fffad08ab6",
"listing_id": "500605942756236815",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Ol' Rusty",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d4fffad08ab6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:54.754727Z"
},
{
"price": 1.18,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "514116741798053814",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:01:51.133271Z"
},
{
"price": 1.44,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "652601015909084844",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:59:06.013534Z"
},
{
"price": 1.57,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "507361289452175017",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:59:06.013534Z"
},
{
"price": 2.04,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "506235442368331512",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:45.233264Z"
},
{
"price": 2.08,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "525375740886326767",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:45.233264Z"
},
{
"price": 3.71,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "634586617400715303",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:45.233264Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-26:4+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 30.0% $5.56 Allure 8.0% $0.74 Connexion 8.0% $0.73 Brother 8.0% $0.73 Monster Call 8.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +209.5% | $7.38 +26.3% | 30.0% | +120.4% | $5.84 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $6.93 Royal Guard 30.0% $1.26 Connexion 8.0% $0.73 Monster Call 8.0% $0.67 Kitbash 8.0% $0.65 Allure 8.0% $0.63 | $6.93 +176.1% | $2.72 +8.4% | 30.0% | +107.7% | $2.51 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 20.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 20.0% $5.56 Allure 12.0% $0.74 Connexion 12.0% $0.72 Brother 12.0% $0.72 Monster Call 12.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +372.0% | $5.16 +34.7% | 40.0% | +170.9% | $3.83 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 15.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 15.0% $5.56 Allure 14.0% $0.74 Connexion 14.0% $0.73 Brother 14.0% $0.73 Monster Call 14.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +498.6% | $4.04 +33.9% | 30.0% | +198.8% | $3.02 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 25.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 25.0% $5.56 Allure 10.0% $0.74 Brother 10.0% $0.73 Connexion 10.0% $0.72 Monster Call 10.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +268.2% | $6.26 +27.6% | 50.0% | +140.0% | $4.91 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 35.0% $5.56 Allure 6.0% $0.74 Connexion 6.0% $0.73 Brother 6.0% $0.73 Monster Call 6.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +159.3% | $8.49 +21.8% | 35.0% | +101.1% | $6.97 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×8+The Ascent Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 10.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 10.0% $5.56 Allure 16.0% $0.74 Connexion 16.0% $0.73 Brother 16.0% $0.73 Monster Call 16.0% $0.71 | $18.08 +650.1% | $2.93 +21.7% | 20.0% | +214.6% | $2.41 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.27 Allure 2.0% $1.70 Monster Call 2.0% $1.59 Brother 2.0% $1.54 Connexion 2.0% $1.34 | $38.92 +98.5% | $23.63 +20.5% | 45.0% | +70.8% | $19.61 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $6.94 Royal Guard 40.0% $1.18 Kitbash 4.0% $0.71 Brother 4.0% $0.70 Connexion 4.0% $0.70 Allure 4.0% $0.69 | $6.94 +145.4% | $3.39 +19.7% | 40.0% | +101.0% | $2.83 | — |